Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan: External and Fiscal Sustainability
Prepared Jointly by the IMF and the World Bank
February 7, 2001

Republic of Armenia and the IMF

Georgia and the IMF

Kyrgyz Republic and the IMF

Republic of Moldova and the IMF

Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF

Transcript of a Joint Briefing by IMF European II Department Assistant Director, Mohammad Shadman-Valavi, and World Bank Sector Manager, Samuel Otoo, on External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan
March 08, 2001

Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan: External and Fiscal Sustainability
Background Paper

Prepared Jointly by European II Department of the IMF and the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank
February 7, 2001

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Contents

I. Introduction

II. Summaries

    1. Armenia
    2. Georgia
    3. The Kyrgyz Republic
    4. Moldova
    5. Tajikistan

III. Armenia

    1. Background
    2. Outlook for 2001-2010
      Scenario One
      Scenario Two
      Stress Testing

IV. Georgia

    1. Background
    2. Outlook for 2001-2010
      Scenario One
      Potential Energy Sector Debt
      Scenario Two
      Stress Testing

V. The Kyrgyz Republic

    1. Background
    2. Outlook for 2001-2010
      Scenario One
      Scenario Two
      Stress Testing

VI. Moldova

    1. Background
    2. Outlook for 2001-2010
      Scenario One
      Scenario Two
      Stress Testing
      Domestic Debt
    3. Social Sustainability Assessment

VII. Tajikistan

    1. A. Background
    2. Outlook for 2001-2010
      Scenario One
      Scenario Two
      Stress Testing

Appendix I

    Was the Rapid Growth of External Debt Foreseen?

Appendix II

    Decomposing the Growth of External Debt