Journal Description Editorial Committee How to Subscribe Forthcoming Articles Staff Papers Archive Copyright Information Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files Free Email Notification Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you. |
|
|
|
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union By Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Full Text of this Article (PDF
180 K)
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality, stemming from the endogenous behavior of monetary authorities. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. [JEL F14, F17, F31]
© 1999 International Monetary Fund
|
