IMF-WHO COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Forecast Dashboard
Last Update: November 2021
Introduction
Many countries are not on track to meet the 40% vaccine coverage target. To make progress towards this target, we must identify: (1) Where and in which countries are the gaps?, and (2) How can the gaps be addressed?
The IMF-WHO COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Forecast Dashboard estimates expected month vaccine supply until the end of 2021 by country, product and channel. The tracker builds on the work of the IMF Staff Discussion Note – A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic (Agarwal and Gopinath, 2021).
This database draws information from the public domain, COVAX Global Vaccine Market Assessment, the United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), Duke Global Health Innovation Center, Airfinity, Our World in Data, the World Bank Group, Asian Development Bank, and African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT).
This data is preliminary and will be subject to revisions in collaboration with countries and areas, suppliers, immunization, health and financing partners. This tracker is updated every week to reflect latest developments. For additional information or inquiries, please contact vaccinetracker@imf.org.
1. Expected Effective Vaccine Supply (% of Population) by Country
Total Supply
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
Bilateral Agreements
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
Non-COVAX Donations
To date
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
COVAX (Direct Supply & Donations)
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
AVAT Supply
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
2. Expected Effective Vaccine Supply (% of Population) by Country Group
Total Supply
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
Bilateral Agreements
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
Non-COVAX Donations
To date
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
COVAX (Direct Supply & Donations)
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
AVAT Supply
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
3. Gap to 40% and Excess Doses by Country Group
End-Dec
Baseline Scenario
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
Low Supply Scenario
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
High Supply Scenario
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Nov
Baseline Scenario
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Oct
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Sep
Gap to 40% expected coverage
Excess doses above 100% expected coverage
Other
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Effective vaccine supply = doses/2/population. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
4. Total Risk-Adjusted Production Forecasts for 2021 in Baseline Scenario by Manufacturer
Figure
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
Table
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. J&J and CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio. Doses are in millions.
5. Expected Vaccine Supply by Country Group and Manufacturer
Pfizer
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
Moderna
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
Johnson & Johnson
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.J&J volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.J&J volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.J&J volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.J&J volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
Sputnik V
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
AstraZeneca - SII
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
AstraZeneca - Non SII
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
Bharat
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
CanSino
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data. CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data. CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data. CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data. CanSino volumes have been doubled for comparability with the other two dose candidates in the portfolio.
Sinopharm
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
Sinovac
End-Dec
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Nov
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Oct
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
End-Sep
Source: IMF & WHO Staff calculations based on various sources. Delivery estimates may be underestimated due to unobserved or missing data.
6. Country-level Contracts by Manufacturer
Pfizer
Page 1
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Page 2
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Moderna
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Johnson & Johnson
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Sputnik V
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
AstraZeneca - SII
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
AstraZeneca - Non SII
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Bharat
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
CanSino
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Sinopharm
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Sinovac
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
7. COVAX and AVAT Supply
COVAX and AVAT Deliveries
Sources and Notes: COVAX, UNICEF, Africa CDC, IMF staff calculations. Committed doses are doses that the COVAX facility is required to procure. Support from e US has allowed COVAX to secure 1b Pfizer doses. These include a donation of 700m doses, and the rest 300m doses is treated as non-donations. However, for this presentation all 1b facilitated doses are included in the Pfizer category. The secured supply agreement numbers for SII-AstraZeneca and SII-Novavax are approximated based on COVAX Facility candidate-specific supply information. The dose donations are based on COVAX estimates based on commitments from donors to share doses bilaterally with the COVAX facility.
Last Update: 18 Nov 2021
COVAX Allocations and Shipments
Page 1
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Page 2
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Page 3
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
COVAX Shipments by Manufacturer
Page 1
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Page 2
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Page 3
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
AVAT Deliveries
AVAT J&J Doses Delivered (% of population)
Source: UNICEF Vaccine Market Dashboard, IMF & WHO Staff calculations. Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
AVAT Orders placed
Countries with AVAT orders placed
Notes: Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position.
8. Dose Donations
Dose donations pledge and delivered
Dose donations pledge and delivered (in millions)
Source: UNICEF, COVAX, government reports, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Delivered through direct donation by product
Dose donations delivered through direct donation by product (in millions)
Source: UNICEF, COVAX, government reports, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
Delivered through COVAX by product
Dose donations delivered through COVAX by product (in millions)
Source: UNICEF, COVAX, government reports, IMF & WHO Staff calculations.
9. Transparency and Data Sharing Table
This table provides details on the status of data sharing by each company. The rubric can be found here.
Aggregated data shared by companies can be found here.
Disclaimer
The IMF and WHO accept no responsibility whatsoever for any inaccurate or incomplete information or data that may be included in this database, and expressly disclaims any liability for damages as a result of its use. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the content lies with the user. The IMF and WHO assume no responsibility or liability for any consequence resulting directly or indirectly from any action or inaction users take based on or made in reliance on the information and data available in this database.
The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this IMF-WHO COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Forecast Dashboard follow exclusively the institutional style and practice of the IMF, may be at variance with those used by WHO and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WHO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.