Tables

Table 1. Guinea: Summary and Time Frame Implementation of Macroeconomic and Structural
Adjustment Measures, October 1998–September 2000

Issues	Objectives and policies	Strategies and measures	Phasing and implementa- tion	Technical assistance
I. Fiscal policy
a. Revenue	Increase the share of nonmining revenue in GDP by broadening the tax base and strengthening tax administration.	Improve tax administration by restructuring tax offices in Conakry and in the interior.	1998-99	IMF
		Strengthen collection of the unified presumptive tax (TPU).	1998
		Implement the newly adopted unified real estate tax	1998
		Monitor tax compliance more efficiently by setting benchmarks and incentives for collection agents.
		Improve the functioning of customs department through:	1998-2000	France
		- redeployment of staff,
		- training, and
		- rehabilitiation of ASYCUDA system
b. Expenditure
1. Restructuring public expenditure toward priority sectors	Increase fiscal resources allocated to the priority sectors.	Develop a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) based on national and sectoral priorities and fiscal discipline.
		Adopt the MTEF for the priority sectors (education, health, rural development, and roads).	1998
		Extend the MTEF to other sectors.	1999-2000	WB
		Ensure that Public Investment Program (PIP) is consistent with the MTEF (revised investment budget classification and computerized monitoring of execution).	1998	WB
		Increase resource allocations to priority sectors.
		Increase recurrent budget allocations to four priority sectors from 25% in 1997 to 35% in 2000.	1998-2000
		Increase disbursement rates in the four priority sectors from less than 50% in 1997 to 90 % in 2000.	1998-2000
	Implement results-oriented expenditure system.	Develop system of ex-post evaluation of results
		Develop performance indicators for each priority sector.	1998	WB
		Design and adopt a system for ex-post evaluation of financial results.	1998	WB
	Adopt strategic expenditure prioritization, and ensure fiscal discipline.	Strengthen systems for macroeconomic forecasting:
		Produce macroeconomic forecasts (revenue, expenditure, and sectoral allocations) and ensure consistency with the budget and IMF-supported program criteria.	1998-2000	WB
		Design budget allocation system to take account of potentially low levels of revenue.	1998-2000	WB
2. Strengthening budget execution and monitoring	Strengthen budgetary control framework.	Strengthen regulatory framework governing budget execution:
		Increase staffing in the budget and financial departments of the sectoral ministries.	1998	WB
		Rigorously implement regulatory framework governing procurement contracts (publication of monthly data on government spending on bid requests by each sectoral ministry; rejection of all spending that exceeds code-prescribed threshold and is not contract-related).	1998-2000	WB
		Reduce delays in signing bid contracts.	1998-2000	WB
		Standardize documents used for bid submission.	1998-1999	WB
		Strengthen monitoring of budget execution:
		Supplement the computerized budget-monitoring system (by including Treasury operations).	1998	France
		Produce monthly data on budget execution by each ministry.	1998	WB
		Finalize the 1996 final budget accounting law [loi de règlement].	1998	France
		Produce the final budget accounting law for end-1997.	1998	France
		Produce the final budget accounting laws six months after the close of the budget year, at the latest.	1999-2000
	Standardize and simplify budgetary process.	Improve and harmonize budgetary classification for current and capital expenditure.	1998	WB
		Simplify budgetary procedures.	1998-2000	WB
		Implement the plan to reorganize the National Treasury Directorate.	1998	France
II. Monetary policy and financial sector reform	Stabilize inflation and protect reserves.	Maintain tight domestic liquidity conditions through increasingly active use of open market operations and strict enforcement of minimum reserve requirements.	1998-2000	IMF
		Respect quarterly ceilings on reserve money and quarterly targets for net foreign assets of the Central Bank.	1998-2000	IMF
		Raise the interest rate on central bank credit to the government to the level of the Treasury bill rate.	1998 Budget
	Facilitate microfinance operations.	Make the Fonds d’Etude et d’Assistance operational.	1998	WB
		Develop an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework conducive to microfinance development.	1998-2000	WB
		Develop a performance-based institutional capacity-building program for the three microcredit institutions (Crédit Mutuel/Crédit Rural/PRIDE) and transform them from donor-financed projects to autonomous institutions.	1998-2000	WB/France
	Restore normal operating conditions in the banking system.	Finalize the liquidation of the BIAG.	May 1998
		Implement plans for restructuring the UIBG, BIG, and BPMG.	1998	WB/IMF
	Strengthen procedures for granting loans.	Strengthen supervision by the BCRG and auditors.	1998-99	WB/IMF
		Review and publish a directive for all the parties concerned (banks, BCRG, auditors, shareholders).	1998	WB/IMF
	Strengthen supervision of financial institutions.	Enforce prudential ratios (according to Basle Committee principles).	1998-2000	WB
		Enforce new loan recovery procedures and improve arrangements for providing loan collateral.	1998-2000	WB
		Implement the new chart of accounts for commercial banks.	1998-2000	WB
		Ensure that all commercial banks are externally audited on an annual basis and that reports are reviewed by the Central Bank.	1998-2000	WB
		Apply equal tax treatment to all banks	1998-2000	IMF
III. External sector
a. Exchange and trade system	Improve flexibility and transparency in foreign exchange operations on the interbank market	Limit central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market to smoothing short-term fluctuations.	1998-2000	IMF
		Encourage transactions in the interbank market.	1998	IMF
b. External debt management	Regularize Guinea’s financial position with all its bilateral creditors.	Finalize all bilateral agreements with Paris Club creditors, including Russia.	1998	IMF
IV. Structural reforms
a. Judicial reforms	Increase transparency and efficiency of the judiciary and application of the rule of law.	Adopt an action plan to improve the working conditions of members of the judiciary over the medium term.	1998-2000	WB/France
		Increase transparency of judicial proceedings by systematic monitoring of cases in litigation by the media, and publication of court decisions.	1998-2000	France
		Adopt an action plan to strengthen institutional capacity in the legal area by improving training for legal professionals and paralegals.	1998-2000	WB
		Sensitize members of the executive branch on the limits of their powers and the need for them to refrain from interfering in judicial matters.	1998-2000
		Adopt an action plan to strengthen the functioning of institutional mechanisms established to enforce the rules of conduct to be followed by members of the judiciary.	1998-2000
b. Public enterprise sector reform	Reduce the size and economic burden of the public enterprise (PE) sector.	Define a framework for public sector reform
		Comprehensive inventory of all public enterprises.	1998	WB
		Define and implement a privatization plan for commercial and industrial public enterprises.	1998-2000	WB
		Reduce direct and indirect subsidies to public enterprises.	1998-2000	IMF
	Reinforce financial management of PE to minizie its budgetary cost.	Update and reduce the stock of cross debts.	1998-2000	IMF
c. Administrative reform	Create a service-oriented public administration.	Initiate an institutional evaluation program to assess civil service capabilities and bottlenecks.	1998	WB
	Build local institutional and technical capacities needed to improve the management of public finances and the delivery of public services.	Conduct a survey of government services. Develop and implement an action plan to: (i) improve efficiency, effectiveness and quality of service; (ii) create a "performance-based" environment; (iii) place effective human resources management at the center of the reform process; (iv) promote a client-oriented government; (v) introduce market-type mechanisms such as user fees and outsourcing; and (vi) improve regulatory quality.	1998-2000   1998-2000	WB   WB
V. Sectoral policies
a. Agriculture	Implement a focused and integrated rural development strategy encompassing agriculture, infrastructure, management of natural resources and social services.	Adopt a new agricultural development policy letter (LPDA 2) covering both livestock and natural resources management. Implement the recommendations of the study on fertilizers.	1998       1998	WB       WB
		Adopt an action plan to improve the competitiveness of agricultural exports.	1998-2000	WB
		Undertake a detailed sector institutional assessment.	1998	WB
		Adopt a plan for restructuring the Ministry of Agriculture.	1998	WB
		Complete the restructuring the Ministry of Agriculture.	1999-00	WB
	Strengthen decentralization mechanisms (budgetary, institutional, and regulatory) to empower rural development communities (CRD) to assume responsibility for economic and social infrastructures.	Undertake a detailed examination of the legal and regulatory framework governing property ownership.	1998-99	WB
		Adopt a new land policy empowering local governments to take decisions on soil use and launch pilot operations.	1999	WB
		Examine the political, institutional, and regulatory framework for managing forestry resources.	1999
		Finalize the mechanisms for maintaining the rural roads network.	1999	WB
		Adopt a five-year roads maintenance program.	1999-2000	WB
		Adopt a five year program for rural roads.	1999-2000	WB
b. Mining sector	Strengthen the government’s role as facilitator/regulator and reduce its role as owner/operator.	Continue implementing cost reduction plans for CBG, Friguia and SBK, including personnel reductions and relinquishment of certain services.	1998	WB
		Decide on further restructuring and privatization SBK.	1998
		Reduce government ownership of CBG and Friguia.	1998
		Redefine status of ANAIM and institutional arrangements for reduced government participation in mining companies.	1998	WB
		Enact implementation decrees to harmonize mining code provisions with other relevant legislation.	1998	Canada
		Introduce private management into geological services (applied geology, drilling and laboratories).	1998
c. Roads	Extend roads and improve their quality.	Accelerate disbursements to pay for roads maintenance.	1998	WB
	Ensure the continuity of roads maintenance resources.	Carry out a study of the various types of road-user fees.	1998	WB
		Create and adopt a new Roads Maintenance Fund based on the following: (i) legal and financial autonomy vis-à-vis the government; (ii) own resources based on the principle of user fees.	1998-2000	WB
d. Energy	Ensure an increased, reliable, and environmentally sound supply of energy across the country.	Increase private sector participation in energy production in the Conakry region and provincial centers.	1998-99	WB
		Ensure that satisfactory progress is made in the negotiation on new concession agreement relating to the privatization of the electricity sector.	1998	WB
		Enact enabling regulatory environment for private power generation in the energy production sector.	1998
		Effective beginning of the village electrification pilot program.	1998	WB
		Implement electrification program for interior cities.	1998	WB
		Improve monitoring of safety, environment and quality aspects of petroleum product distribution.	1998-99	WB
		Promote the use of LPG in the Conakry/Kindia area.	1998-99
		Prepare a strategy for rural electrification and for sustainable management/use of woodfuel resources.	1998	WB
	Improve financial situation and pursue reform of power sector.	Adjust the level and structure of electricity tariffs.	1998	WB
		Execute signed concession contracts to operate and develop power production systems.	1998	WB
		Liquidate Enelgui and create a small entity for sector regulation.	1998	WB
	Increase fiscal revenues.	Eliminate fraudulent importation and distribution of petroleum products.	1998-99
e. Education	Give increased priority to medium-term objectives of the education policy and access to the education system.	Implement a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) for education.	1998-2000	WB
	Increase enrollment and completion rates for basic education (primary and lower secondary).	Commit and disburse adequate budgetary resources for basic education including, in particular: (a) additional recuritment of at least 1,600 primary school teachers and (b) $5 and $8 per student in educational materials, for primary and secondary students, respectively.	1998-2000 1998-2000 (materials)	WB/France
		Develop and institutionalize decentralized recruitment and posting system for contract teachers.	1998-99	WB
		Recruit at least 1,600 new teachers (staff and contractual) per year.	1999-2000	WB
		Decentralize management of a certain percentage of nonwage operating budgets to regional education directorates.	1999	WB
	Increase quality and efficiency of higher education.	Restructure and streamline higher education to respond to changing employment priorities and tighter budgets.	1998-99
		Maintain student enrollments in higher education between 8,500 and 9,000.	1998-2000
		Reduce the cost of social transfers in the government budget by about 5% annually.	1998-2000
f. Health and population	Improve quality and accessibility of health care.	Strengthen quality and accessibility of basic health care by focusing on remote areas.	1998-2000	WB
		Pursue decentralization and improve budget allocations for districts.	1998-2000	WB
		Increase budget allocations for nonwage recurrent expenditure in the sector and improve budget execution.	1998-99	WB
		Increase expenditure on primary health care services to at least 30% of total public sector expenditure.	1998-99
	Reduce fertility rate to alleviate pressure on resources and services.	Expand family planning activities and other cost-effective programs such as mother and child care, control of communicable diseases, particularly STDs/AIDS, and health and nutrition education.	1998-2000	WB
		Take legislative measures to eliminate obstacles to the promotion and use of modern contraceptive methods to change behavior.	1998-99
		Launch information, education, and communications campaigns to increase demand for modern contraceptive products and modify behaviors.	1998-2000	WB
VI. Social development	Improve living conditions of the population.	Promote community-based self-help projects (particularly in the areas of social and economic infrastructure).	1998-99
		Improve food security.	1998-99
		Continue to carry out the Human Development Initiative.	1998-99
	Public policy on poverty reduction.	Build consensus on policy choices through participatory process.	1998-99
		Continue development of poverty monitoring system, including both qualitative and quantitative surveys.	1998-99
VII. Rural water & sanitation	Provide basic water and sanitation services to communities.	Ensure cost-effectiveness of these facilities through community management, private sector provision of goods and services, and public sector support.	1998-2000
		Maximize health benefits by integrating water, sanitation and hygiene education interventions.	1998-2000
VIII. Urban development	Provide basic urban services at the request of the population and develop municipal capabilities to program and finance urban services and amenities.	Establish different levels of service and amenities according to popular request and ability to pay.	1998-2000	WB
		Have users of services and amenities finance recurrent costs.		WB
		Ensure management and execution of services and provision of amenities by the private sector.
		Increase municipalities’ regulatory capacity.
IX. Economic statistics	Improve economic information system	Rehabilitate ASYCUDA with a view to producing up-to-date foreign trade statistics	September 1998	France
		Complete computerization of government expenditure chain from commitment to payment, and rehabilitate the treasury accounting system to produce reliable and consistent public finance statistics.	1998	France
		Prepare preliminary national accounts for 1995-96.	1998	IMF
		Coordinate preparation of balance of payments statistics between Ministry of Planning and the Central Bank.	1998

 
 

Table 2. Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1995-2000
	1995	1996 Est.	1997		1998 Prog.	1999	2000
			Rev. prog.	Est.		Projections
	(Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
Income
GDP at constant prices	4.4	4.6	4.8	4.7	5.0	5.5	6.0
GDP at current prices	9.8	8.5	9.5	8.0	9.8	9.4	9.4
GDP deflator	5.2	3.8	4.5	3.9	4.4	3.8	3.3
Consumer prices
Average	5.6	3.0	5.0	1.9	4.0	3.5	3.5
End of period	5.2	2.1	5.0	5.2	3.5	3.5	3.5
External sector
Exports, f.o.b. (in U.S. dollar terms)	19.4	-8.2	14.6	10.6	9.5	10.4	9.4
Imports, c.i.f. (in U.S. dollar terms)	17.6	-10.7	9.2	6.9	7.7	9.6	7.7
Terms of trade
Index (1989=100)	75.1	73.2	74.2	72.3	73.0	71.8	70.5
Percentage change	-3.1	-2.4	0.4	-1.3	1.1	-1.6	-1.8
Average effective exchange
rates (depreciation -)
Nominal index	-4.6	2.3	...	0.2	...	...	...
Real index	-5.7	2.3	...	-0.6	...	...	...
Central government finances
Revenue and grants	18.9	-4.8	20.6	17.3	6.1	15.0	15.6
Total expenditure	10.9	-0.9	17.8	14.6	12.1	12.1	10.9
Money and credit
Net foreign assets1	-3.9	-7.0	16.2	20.4	11.6	...	...
Net domestic assets1	15.2	12.9	-10.8	-3.1	-2.6	...	...
Public sector (net)1	8.8	10.8	-11.7	-4.3	-8.3	...	...
Private sector	25.7	3.8	9.3	-0.5	10.1	...	...
Broad money	11.3	5.8	12.5	17.3	9.0	...	...
Reserve money	12.8	1.3	9.8	15.1	11.3	...	...
Interest rate2	13.0	9.0	...	9.0	...	...	...
Velocity (GDP/average M2)	12.3	11.4	11.4	11.2	10.8	...	...
	(In percent of GDP)
Central government finances
Total revenue and grants	15.0	13.2	14.5	14.3	14.5	15.5	16.5
Of which: nonmining revenue	8.0	7.4	8.7	8.2	8.7	9.3	9.9
Current expenditure	9.1	8.9	8.9	8.8	8.4	8.4	8.4
Capital expenditure	8.6	7.4	8.6	8.3	9.0	9.8	10.1
Overall budget balance
Including grants (commitment)	-2.7	-3.0	-2.9	-2.9	-2.9	-2.7	-2.0
Excluding grants (commitment)	-6.7	-6.1	-6.0	-6.0	-5.9	-5.7	-5.7
Primary balance	1.9	1.3	2.6	2.8	2.9	4.0	4.3
Gross investment3	20.2	20.0	...	21.4	22.3	23.2	24.0
Private	14.4	14.9	...	15.4	15.8	16.1	16.6
Government	5.8	5.1	...	6.0	6.5	7.1	7.4
Domestic savings3	15.3	15.3	...	17.0	17.5	19.0	21.0
Private	11.7	12.9	...	13.7	13.7	14.5	16.0
Government	3.6	2.4	...	3.3	3.8	4.5	5.1
External current account balance
Including official transfers	-5.0	-4.6	-4.2	-4.4	-4.7	-3.6	-3.1
Excluding official transfers	-9.1	-7.7	-7.4	-7.7	-7.7	-6.6	-6.1
External public debt4	87.8	82.6	77.9	80.0	67.6	65.0	63.2
	(In percent of export of goods and nonfactor services)
External debt service ratio5	18.7	17.9	17.6	16.5	16.6	16.1	16.0
External public debt	392.3	437.2	380.5	380.3	297.6	268.0	256.4
	(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
Exports	747.5	695.8	797.1	769.8	843.0	930.4	1017.7
Imports	809.2	713.8	778.9	763.1	821.8	900.9	970.1
External current account     (including off. transfers)	-184.9	-182.9	-167.0	-171.5	-185.3	-145.3	-135.0
Overall balance of payments	-51.8	-83.3	-12.0	4.7	-74.9	-40.1	-21.8
External arrears outstanding	577.3	663.1	0.0	687.8	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net foreign assets (central bank)	98.7	71.5	124.1	118.2	143.2	143.2	166.3
Gross official reserves      (in months of imports of goods     and nonfactor services)	2.9	2.4	...	3.0	3.4	3.4	3.4
Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1In percent of broad money stock at beginning of period. 2Minimum annual rate on bank savings deposits, at end of period. 3New national accounts estimates subject to further revisions. 4Including debt owed to the Fund and to the former Soviet Union. 5Scheduled debt service, including IMF charges and repurchases.

 

Table 3. Guinea: Social and Demographic Indicators

Area (square kilometers, 1995)
Total	245,860
Agricultural land	62,448
Population and vital statistics
Total population (in millions, 1995)	6.6
Rate of growth (percent, 1995)	2.6
Density (per square kilometer, 1995)	27.0
Urban population (percent of total, 1995)	29.6
Population age structure (percent, 1995)
0-14	47.0
15-64	50.0
65 and above	3.0
Crude birth rate (per thousand, 1993)	50
Crude death rate (per thousand, 1993)	20
Infant mortality rate (per thousand, 1994)	128
Life expectancy at birth (years, 1993)	45.0
Total fertility rate (births per woman, 1994)	6.5
Health and nutrition
Population per physician (1985)	38,961
Population per hospital bed (1990)	1,816
Per capita supply of
Calories (per day, 1989)	1,730
Proteins (grams per day, 1989)	37
Access to safe water (percent, 1993)	60.0
Labor force
Total (in millions, 1994)	3.1
Male	1.6
Female	1.5
Education
Enrollment rate (percent)
Primary (1997)
Total	51
Female	37
Secondary (1994)
Total	16
Female	6
Tertiary (1990)	1
Pupil-teacher ratio (percent)
Primary (1994)	50.0
Secondary (1993)	30.0
Adult illiteracy (percent)
Total (1990)	76.0
Female (1994)	78.1

 

Table 4: Guinea: External Financing Requirements, 1995-2000
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
	1995	1996 Est.	1997 Est.	1998		1999	2000
				Projections
Financing requirements	-588.7	-298.5	-516.1	-1,129.7		-390.8	-385.8
Current account deficit,
excluding public transfers	-332.4	-304.6	-300.7	-302.3		-266.7	-265.0
Public debt amortization	-90.8	-77.2	-71.9	-82.0		-92.0	-97.8
IMF repayments	-8.8	-8.4	-11.0	-9.4		-7.1	-8.3
Public short term	0.0	0.0	-34.5	-0.6		0.0	0.0
International reserves (increase-)	-34.7	59.6	-47.0	-47.5		-24.9	-14.7
Change in arrears	-116.5	32.2	-51.0	-687.8		0.0	0.0
Errors and omissions	-5.5	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
Resources	588.7	298.3	516.0	336.0		342.1	341.0
Public transfers	147.6	122.0	129.2	116.9		121.2	130.0
Project-related grants	120.1	117.9	120.8	116.9		121.2	130.0
Program grants	27.5	2.0	8.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
France	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
European Union (EU)	0.0	0.0	8.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
Other (food aid)	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
Public capital, long term	154.0	121.9	226.9	175.4		177.8	186.3
Project-related loans	144.9	121.9	160.5	175.4		177.8	186.3
Of which: World Bank	78.1	64.9	62.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
Program financing	9.1	0.0	66.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
World Bank (CASFI)	9.1	0.0	9.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
IDA's third structural adjustment credit          (SAC III)	0.0	0.0	45.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
Kuwait	0.0	0.0	4.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
African Development Bank	0.0	0.0	8.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
Direct investment	64.1	40.2	43.4	20.0		19.7	24.7
Other private capital	11.3	14.3	12.3	-2.3		0.0	0.0
IMF disbursements	30.7	0.0	34.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
Kuwait	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
Paris Club rescheduling	181.0	0.0	48.6	26.0		23.5	0.0
Other debt relief	0.0	0.0	17.9	0.0		0.0	0.0
Deferred payments	0.0	0.0	3.4	0.0		0.0	0.0
Financing gap	0.0	0.0	0.0	793.6		48.6	44.8
ESAF resources	0.0	0.0	0.0	32.0		32.0	0.0
IDA's SAC III	0.0	0.0	0.0	25.0		0.0	0.0
Debt buyback (IDA, bilateral creditors)	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.4		0.0	0.0
EU grants	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.0		11.4	0.0
African Development Bank	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.4		0.0	0.0
Other loans	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.3		0.0	0.0
Residual financing	0.0	0.0	0.0	672.5	1	5.2	44.8
Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1For 1998, it is expected to be filled by debt relief from Russia and non-Paris Club creditors on terms at least comparable to those of 1997 Paris Club agreement, and by a further debt buyback.

 

Table 5. Guinea: External Medium- and Long-Term Public Debt Outstanding and Debt Service Due, 1995-2000 (In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
	1995	1996 Est.	1997 Prel.	1998	1999	2000
				Projections
Total medium- and long-term
debt outstanding1,2	2,642.9	2,707.4	2,630.6	2,558.3	2,625.9	2,737.8
Total medium- and long-term debt,
excluding IMF1,2	2,549.1	2,623.9	2,531.5	2,468.2	2,542.5	2,662.3
(of which: arrears)	199.3	279.6	241.7	0.0	0.0	0.0
Multilateral institutions	1,340.9	1,377.8	1,428.7	1,503.0	1,580.9	1,657.4
(of which: arrears)	6.3	10.7	6.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Paris Club creditors2	836.4	827.6	684.2	715.4	746.6	755.8
(of which: arrears)	7.4	41.6	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other official creditors	308.8	321.8	305.7	242.5	212.3	248.8
(of which: arrears)	135.8	141.6	133.7	0.0	0.0	0.0
Commercial banks and suppliers	63.0	96.8	113.1	7.4	2.7	0.3
(of which: arrears)	49.8	85.7	100.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
Outstanding IMF credit3	93.8	83.5	99.0	90.1	83.4	75.5
Debt service due before
debt rescheduling2	148.9	133.6	129.1	144.2	145.0	151.1
Paris Club, post-cutoff-date debt	8.7	9.7	11.4	13.0	16.8	20.3
Paris Club, 1986 and PRNC	43.4	18.3	9.5	8.7	7.3	5.8
Paris Club, 1989	7.6	9.8	14.4	17.4	16.2	15.3
Paris Club, 1992	10.9	10.0	8.1	10.0	6.7	6.9
Paris Club, 1995	2.3	7.8	7.4	5.9	5.8	5.9
Paris Club, 1997	0.0	0.0	0.9	4.5	3.6	3.7
Paris Club deferred debt	0.0	0.0	3.3	3.3	0.0	0.0
International organizations
(including IMF)	47.5	47.9	50.4	53.2	52.7	59.7
Organizations of Arab countries	6.1	5.4	6.2	8.2	8.6	9.0
Banks and suppliers	13.0	15.5	6.7	6.3	6.0	3.0
Non-Paris Club bilaterals	9.6	9.3	10.7	12.0	16.1	12.5
Other rescheduling	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
New public investment program drawings	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	5.3	8.9
Telecommunications debt	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Private debt	60.2	80.7	80.0	81.0	71.8	64.5
Interest	77.1	84.9	85.5	87.4	87.3	84.6
Principal	132.0	129.4	140.7	146.5	130.6	129.6
Debt rescheduling4	43.7	0.0	23.9	26.0	23.5	0.0
Interest	4.5	...	...	....	...
Principal	39.1	...	...	...	...
Debt service due after debt
rescheduling1,2	105.2	133.6	105.2	118.2	121.5	151.1
Memorandum items:
Debt outstanding vis-à-vis
Russia1,5	487.3	488.4	489.5	95.0	86.7	78.4
Total debt outstanding,
including debt to Russia1,5	3,130.2	3,195.8	3,120.1	2,653.3	2,712.6	2,816.2
Debt-GDP ratio (in percent)1
Excluding debt to Russia	71.1	68.9	67.4	65.2	65.0	63.2
Including debt to Russia5	84.2	81.4	80.0	67.6	67.1	65.0
Debt-service ratio6	18.7	17.9	16.5	16.6	16.1	16.0
Sources: Guinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1End of period. 2Excluding debt to Russia. 3Excluding expected new disbursements under current ESAF. 4Only agreed rescheduling of current debt-service payments due is shown. 5The data assumptions are based on September 1997 agreement on Russia's participation as a creditor in the Paris Club, with an additional assumption, reflecting the Guinean position, that the upfront discount applies to the totality of Russion debt. A hypothetical rescheduling scenario based on these assumptions is contained in Appendix IV of the March 1998 staff report. The Russian authorities have indicated that US$34 million of their claims would not appear eligible for the discount. These amounts may need to be revised in the light of the bilateral negotiations scheduled to commence in April 1998. 6Scheduled debt service, before rescheduling, on public debt, in percent of total export earnings (goods and nonfactor services), includes Russia.