 |
|
1993/
1994 |
1994/
1995 |
1995/
1996 |
1996/
1997 |
1997/1998
|
1998/
1999 |
1999/2000 |
2000/01 |
| |
|
|
|
Est. |
Revised
program |
Est. |
Prog. |
Projections |
|
| |
(Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated) |
| National income and prices |
| GDP at constant prices |
-2.5 |
3.3 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
| Of which: non-oil GDP |
-2.2 |
4.1 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
| GDP deflator |
11.0 |
17.0 |
5.4 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
Consumer prices
(12-month average) 2 |
12.7 |
25.8 |
6.6 |
5.2 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| Consumer prices (end of period) 2 |
33.8 |
16.2 |
4.3 |
9.6 |
2.0 |
-1.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Nominal GDP
(in billions of CFA francs) |
3,416 |
4,130 |
4,571 |
4,932 |
5,250 |
5,240 |
5,649 |
6,075 |
6,525 |
Oil output
(in thousands of barrels a day) |
122 |
106 |
101 |
108 |
115 |
115 |
113 |
103 |
94 |
| |
| External trade |
| Exports (in SDRs) |
-12.5 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
16.5 |
2.1 |
-0.1 |
4.0 |
7.2 |
6.8 |
| Of which: crude oil |
-21.9 |
-9.9 |
-0.8 |
36.0 |
-13.5 |
-17.0 |
-5.6 |
-4.1 |
-8.1 |
| Imports (in SDRs) |
0.4 |
-1.2 |
13.1 |
16.5 |
10.4 |
7.3 |
10.5 |
12.1 |
10.8 |
| Export volume |
-11.0 |
2.0 |
5.9 |
11.5 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
6.0 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
| Of which: non-oil sector |
-16.6 |
15.9 |
16.1 |
11.9 |
5.8 |
6.7 |
8.0 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
| Import volume |
3.0 |
-5.7 |
13.2 |
19.5 |
9.6 |
7.3 |
9.3 |
10.8 |
8.7 |
Average oil export price
(U.S. dollars per barrel) |
14.2 |
15.6 |
16.7 |
19.7 |
15.7 |
15.5 |
14.3 |
15.0 |
15.2 |
| Nominal effective exchange rate |
-22.7 |
-26.5 |
6.5 |
-2.4 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Real effective exchange rate |
-24.7 |
-11.9 |
6.4 |
-1.8 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
Average exchange rate
(CFA francs per SDR) |
609 |
776 |
743 |
767 |
807 |
815 |
... |
... |
... |
| Terms of trade |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-0.1 |
8.1 |
-3.3 |
-4.2 |
-2.9 |
3.1 |
0.9 |
Non-oil export price index
(in CFA francs) |
86.9 |
34.3 |
-10.0 |
1.1 |
10.8 |
9.5 |
-0.1 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
| |
| Money and credit (end of period) |
| Net domestic assets 3 4 |
33.7 |
2.2 |
-3.4 |
-5.8 |
9.2 |
14.9 |
5.9 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
| Net credit to the public sector 3 4 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
-3.0 |
0.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
1.3 |
-2.3 |
-3.5 |
| Credit to the private sector 4 |
-9.7 |
3.4 |
5.0 |
3.3 |
10.3 |
22.4 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
9.0 |
| Broad money (M2) 4 |
17.7 |
6.1 |
-5.1 |
13.8 |
18.1 |
15.1 |
16.1 |
13.2 |
12.6 |
| Velocity (GDP/average M2) 4 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
8.1 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
6.2 |
| Discount rate (end of period) 4 |
12.5 |
8.8 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| |
| Central government operations |
| Total revenue |
-20.2 |
55.2 |
22.4 |
14.1 |
9.3 |
12.3 |
6.7 |
12.7 |
10.2 |
| Of which: non-oil revenue |
-15.5 |
58.0 |
19.8 |
6.0 |
18.5 |
18.6 |
14.7 |
13.0 |
12.3 |
| Total expenditure |
4.7 |
1.3 |
10.2 |
7.7 |
16.6 |
17.8 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
10.9 |
| Current expenditure |
0.4 |
13.9 |
10.6 |
2.7 |
8.9 |
10.3 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
8.5 |
| Capital expenditure 5 |
95.7 |
-72.7 |
38.1 |
51.1 |
47.8 |
47.1 |
47.4 |
30.0 |
26.6 |
| |
| |
(In percent of GDP) |
| |
| Gross national savings |
11.2 |
13.7 |
13.0 |
14.9 |
15.7 |
16.0 |
16.8 |
18.2 |
18.9 |
| Gross domestic investment |
15.3 |
14.5 |
15.4 |
16.2 |
18.0 |
18.4 |
19.3 |
20.5 |
21.2 |
| Central government operations |
| Central government revenue |
10.1 |
12.9 |
14.3 |
15.1 |
15.5 |
16.0 |
15.8 |
16.6 |
17.0 |
| Of which: non-oil revenue |
7.9 |
10.3 |
11.2 |
11.0 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
13.0 |
13.7 |
14.3 |
|
non-oil revenue 6 |
8.7 |
11.3 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
13.3 |
13.3 |
14.0 |
14.6 |
15.1 |
| Central government expenditure |
19.3 |
16.2 |
16.1 |
16.1 |
17.6 |
17.8 |
18.6 |
19.2 |
19.9 |
| Overall fiscal balance |
-9.2 |
-3.3 |
-1.8 |
-1.0 |
-2.1 |
-1.9 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.9 |
| Primary balance 5 |
0.8 |
3.8 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
| Of which: non-oil sector |
-1.4 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| Noninterest expenditure 5 |
9.3 |
9.1 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.9 |
10.2 |
10.9 |
11.9 |
12.4 |
| Domestic public debt (before audit) |
51.6 |
38.1 |
32.6 |
28.5 |
25.5 |
25.6 |
22.3 |
19.2 |
16.8 |
| External sector |
Current account balance
(including grants) |
-4.2 |
-0.8 |
-2.4 |
-1.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
| External public debt |
122.7 |
97.4 |
89.0 |
83.5 |
65.9 |
73.7 |
59.3 |
55.4 |
45.3 |
| |
| |
(In percent of exports of goods and services, unless otherwise indicated) |
| |
| Net present value (NPV) of external public debt 7 |
500.9 |
339.1 |
332.8 |
271.1 |
177.0 |
210.0 |
212.0 |
203.3 |
168.4 |
| Scheduled external debt service |
57.2 |
48.3 |
55.3 |
41.8 |
38.9 |
40.1 |
40.5 |
33.9 |
29.5 |
| Scheduled external debt service 8 |
125.4 |
96.4 |
93.4 |
74.1 |
67.4 |
67.0 |
66.9 |
53.7 |
46.1 |
| Actual external debt service |
43.7 |
15.0 |
23.1 |
18.5 |
... |
16.0 |
... |
... |
... |
| Actual external debt service 8 |
95.8 |
29.9 |
39.0 |
32.8 |
... |
26.7 |
... |
... |
... |
| |
| |
(In millions of SDRs) |
| |
| Current account balance |
-234 |
-41 |
-148 |
-78 |
-156 |
-152 |
-172 |
-173 |
-187 |
| Overall balance of payments |
-694 |
-640 |
-438 |
-336 |
-146 |
-190 |
-179 |
-196 |
-196 |
Net international reserves
(end of period) |
-445 |
-454 |
-409 |
-286 |
-217 |
-256 |
-161 |
-43 |
105 |
|
Sources: Cameroonian authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1 Fiscal year begins in July.
2 Starting in 1994/95, inflation reflects an updated basket of goods and services in the calculation of
CPI; there is a break in the series with respect to the past.
3In percent of broad money at the beginning of the period.
4 Starting in 1996/97, data is rebased to exclude information on two banks liquidated in 1996/1997; there
is a break in the series with respect to the past.
5 Excluding foreign-financed investment. In addition, the primary expenditure excludes restructuring
expenditure.
6 In percent of non-oil GDP.
7 Based on the results of the baseline scenario of the debt sustainability analysis (Appendix V).
8 In percent of government revenue.
|
|
