Table 1. Rwanda: Summary and Timetable of Policy Actions, 1998/99-2000/01¹

Policy Area	Objectives and Targets	Strategies and Measures	Implementation	TA Requirements2
Theme I. Strengthening Public Resource Mobilization and Macroeconomic Management
Revenue	Improve revenues by 0.5 percent of GDP a year to achieve similar improvement in the primary current budgetary balance during 1998-2001.	Improve tax administration through the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA), including the establishment of a large-enterprise unit (combining functions of assessment, collection, and audit), and introduction of a tax identification number for all enterprises.	Ongoing	IMF, DFID
		Assess petroleum imports at border, use reference price for customs valuation of petroleum imports, and collect advance payments on transit imports.	1998
		Assess and recover 1996-97 tax arrears from enterprises and collect scheduled debt service on retroceded debt from public enterprises starting in 1998.	1999 budget	IMF
		Enhance collection of excise revenue from soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, and cigarettes, and expand the base of sales tax through elimination of sales tax exemptions.	Mid-1998
		Strengthen the tax effort by applying a 4 percent turnover tax to enterprises with turnover of less than RF 100 million.	From July 1998
		Eliminate sales tax exemptions on imports of capital and transport equipment, and introduce input credit mechanism for large enterprises (in view of future value-added tax (VAT)).	1999	IMF
	Prepare for introduction of VAT.	Adopt VAT implementation plan.	1998	IMF
		Adopt VAT law and publicize envisaged VAT introduction.	1999
		Introduce VAT.	2000
External resource mobilization and debt	Improve mobilization and coordination of external assistance.	Establish External Aid Mobilization and Project Coordination Bureau in Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MFEP).	Mid-1998	UNDP, WB
	Regularize financial relations with creditors and reduce debt-service burden.	Reach agreements with Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors on multiyear debt relief; seek agreement with multilateral creditors on eliminating arrears.	1998
	Improve debt management.	Establish debt monitoring committee (MFEP and National Bank of Rwanda (NBR)) to strengthen debt-management and debt-monitoring capabilities.	Done May 1998	AfDB
		Put in place a computerized debt-management and debt-monitoring system in MFEP and NBR.	1998	AfDB
Budget and treasury management	Strengthen expenditure control and treasury management systems.	Ensure effective operation of decentralized expenditure management system, including effective payroll management.	Ongoing	IMF
		Maintain centralized system of "engagements" and payments (treasury).	Ongoing
		Improve budgetary management through enhanced cash forecasting and monitoring.	Ongoing
		Improve the accuracy and analytical and forecasting capacity of Fiscal Reporting and Analysis Division.	Ongoing	IMF, AfDB
		Promulgate an organic budget law that requires a macroeconomic framework for budget preparation and defines timing and responsibilities in the budget process.	December 1998	IMF, WB
		Further computerize budget and treasury operations.	1998-99	AfDB
		Transfer all ministries' bank accounts to the treasury account with the NBR.	1998
Public investment	Implement a prioritized and effective public investment program (PIP) in line with national priorities.	Enhance the capacity of and the process for preparing and monitoring public investment projects.	Ongoing	AfDB, UNDP, WB
		Strengthen the integration of the recurrent and development budgets, including commencing a program budgeting approach in key sectors, subject to availability of technical assistance.	1999	IMF, WB
Efficiency, transparency, and accountability	Enhance budget transparency and accountability.	Incorporate extrabudgetary accounts into national budget.	1998
		Develop a system of public accounts.	1998-99	AfDB
		Establish and make operational an Auditor-General's office.	1999	UNDP
	Strengthen public sector procurement.	Strengthen the Central Tender Board to regulate and monitor government purchases.	Ongoing	UNDP
	Improve the effectiveness of managing public resources.	Design and implement capacity-building programs for the MFEP, NBR, Ministry of Public Services and Labor, and the programming and budgeting units of line ministries.	Ongoing	IMF, AfDB, UNDP, WB, donors
		Establish a technical assistance steering committee, composed of senior staff from the MFEP, NBR, and the Ministry of Public Services and Labor.	May 1998	IMF, AfDB, UNDP, WB, donors
Statistics	Improve the quality and timeliness of economic statistics to facilitate policy analysis.	Implement recommendations of technical assistance missions, including through provision of adequate counterpart resources.	Ongoing	IMF, UNDP, WB
Planning	Development Rwanda's strategic vision for 2020.	Complete the preparation phase and establish and make operational the Rwanda Planning Commission.	1998-1999	UNDP, WB
Theme II. Financial, Monetary, and Exchange Reforms
Monetary policy instruments	Maintain low and stable inflation.	Introduce treasury/central bank bills and ensure coordination between MFEP and NBR, and promote secondary markets.	September 1998	IMF
Financial sector reform	Improve the legal and regulatory framework for financial institutions.	Submit to parliament a revised banking law.	June 1998	IMF
		Set up Insurance Commission.	1998-99	UNDP
	Strengthen the financial position of banks.	Complete financial audits for commercial banks for 1996/97 and review and revise restructuring plans.	1998	WB
		Undertake comprehensive financial audits of all commercial banks and adopt restructuring plans.	September 1998
Theme III. Private Sector Development Reforms
	Enhance private sector capacity to generate economic growth.	Adopt the revised business laws and reactivate and reform the Commercial Chamber of the Civil Court.	1998-2000	WB
		Privatize the Chamber of Commerce and develop structured dialogue between the government and the private sector.	1999-2000	WB
		Revise the labor code to eliminate discriminatory gender restrictions on labor mobility, as well as wage controls and minimum wage stipulations.	1998	WB
	Increase foreign and domestic investment and growth of domestic production and exports.	Adopt Investment Promotion Act to establish Rwanda Investment Promotion Agency, with additional missions of export promotion and business development, and with minimal discretionary tax incentives.	1998
		Revise the mining code to attract investors.	1999
		Reduce company profit tax to 35 percent.	2000 budget
	Privatize public enterprises.	Strengthen the Technical Support Unit of the Privatization Commission.	1998	WB, UNDP
		Adopt an action plan and a timetable for offer for sale/liquidation of enterprises identified for divestiture.	1998	WB, UNDP, EU
		Privatize or liquidate 55 public enterprises.	1998-2001
		Sell three coffee factories (in 1998) and privatize tea factories (in 1999).	1998-99
		Liquidate/privatize the Caisse d'Épargne and the Caisse Hypothécaire.	1999
	Reform the telecommunications sector to improve services and reduce tariffs.	Publish audited accounts of telecommunications company (Rwandatel) for 1996 and 1997 financial years; and regularize cross debts between government and Rwandatel.	1998
		Prepare and adopt a telecommunications sector regulatory framework to permit private sector participation in the sector.	End-1998	WB
		Initiate and finalize the privatization of Rwandatel.	1998-99
	Reform energy and water sector to provide these services more efficiently.	Contract an experienced operator to manage the utility company (Electrogaz).	September 1998	WB
		Develop options for restructuring Electrogaz, including its separation into electricity, water, and gas companies, and privatize certain functions.	1998	WB
		Prepare and adopt an energy sector regulatory framework, develop an action plan for private capital participation in the sector, and propose options for restructuring Electrogaz.	September 1999	WB
Social security reform	Restructure Caisse Sociale du Rwanda (CSR).	Develop detailed action plan for the financial and operational restructuring of CSR.	March 1999	ILO, WB
		Consolidate government's debt to the CSR.	1999
Theme IV. External Trade Reforms and Export Development
	Promote export-led growth and development, and comply with Cross-Border Initiative (CBI).	Conduct a study to investigate constraints to competitiveness of Rwanda's exports.	1999	WB
		Harmonize tariff code in line with CBI, with low or zero rates for capital goods and raw materials.	1999	IMF, EU
		Replace the Magerwa tax with a 3 percent statistical tax.	1999
		Implement existing export duty drawback system.	1999	IMF, EU
Theme V. Improving Infrastructure
Transportation	Enhance the integration of Rwanda into the regional economy and make it the regional hub.	Elaborate a transport sector investment strategy and an action plan for medium- and long-term development.	1999-2000	WB
	Protect capital investment in roads and improve sector management and road safety.	Reform law on the Road Fund; review and revise the traffic code; and expand road network to circumvent bottlenecks.	1998-2001	WB
	Reduce transportation costs.	Encourage reestablishment of private truck cooperatives to restore free movement of goods to markets.	1999
	Increase efficiency of air transportation sector and improve accessibility through railway services.	Investigate greater privatization; encourage competition in the air, passenger, and freight sectors; and elaborate feasibility and investment proposals for a railway linking Rwanda to neighboring countries.	1999-2000	Donors
Communications	Improve communications throughout the country and its connection to the rest of the world.	Increase the number and broaden the coverage of telephones in rural and urban centers (related to privatization of Rwandatel).	1999	WB
Water supply and sanitation	Improve access to water supply and sanitation services in rural and urban areas.	Elaborate investment proposals based on sector strategy for improved access to water supply and sanitation in both rural and urban areas.	1999-2001	WB
Urban development	Improve the urban environment and the availability and efficient utilization of urban land.	Prepare and adopt a Land Use Master Plan for Kigali and other cities.	1998-2001	WB
	Resolve the acute urban housing problem and that of the associated utilities, especially water, energy, and construction sites; facilitate the reintegration of returning urban refugees and accommodate the growing urban population.	Develop a land-titling and cadastre system that facilitates the development of land and housing markets, facilitates the conversion process and housing finance systems, and develops the urban tax base.	1998-2001	AfDB, WB
		Design and implement a Kigali water supply and sanitation services program.	1998-2001	WB
		Prepare and adopt a Kigali housing sector regulatory framework to permit private sector participation in the sector.	1998-2001	WB, donors
		Make housing construction sites viable for private sector development.	1998-2001	WB, donors
		Build institutional capacity in urban governments.	1998-2001
Theme VI. Public Service Reform
Reorganization of public service	Develop an effective and appropriately sized public service.	Establish a high-level task force to develop a vision for Rwanda's public service for consideration by cabinet by end-1998.	1998	WB
	Rationalize the functions of the public service.	Establish and make operational an independent Public Service Commission to oversee public service reform, including staffing levels, recruitment, job training, and organizational structure of ministries.	Early 1999	UNDP, WB
Capacity building	Assess the institutional capacity needs.	Carry out an institutional assessment of government agencies to identify critical capacity needs and institutional reforms.	1998	WB
Public service employment and payroll	Control the size of the public service and improve public service qualifications.	Streamline public service recruitment procedures at the level of the MFEP and the Ministry of Public Services and Labor to ensure an efficient public service.	1998
		Develop job descriptions for all public service positions and implement system for classification of positions.	March-September 1998	WB
		Implement program to improve the qualification levels of civil servants (including teachers) by providing in-service training and by progressively replacing unqualified by qualified civil servants.	1998-2001
		Implement the first phase of the program:
		carry out a physical census of public servants and remove identified ghost/double-counted workers, reinsert qualified teachers, and retrench unqualified staff; and	January-June 1998
		define appropriate severance pay and retraining package, including cost estimates for inclusion in revised 1998 budget.	April-September 1998
Public service pay and incentives	Improve the pay and incentive structure of the public service.	Develop revised pay structure based on improving salaries to a "living wage," monetization of all or most fringe benefits, and decompression of wage scales for implementation in the 1999 budget.	September 1998	WB
Theme VII. Building Human Resources, Skills Formation, and Capacity Building at Higher Management Level
Budget allocations	Improve access to social services, particularly for the poor in rural areas.	Increase proportion of budget allocated to education and health to ensure increase in per capita spending.	1998-2001
Education and training	Rebuild the skill base necessary for the growth of the country's economy.	Fill gap left by genocide by strengthening vocational, technical, and management training.	1998-2001	Donors
	Increase the access to, and quality and relevance of, education.	Revise sector strategy and formulate medium-term policy, expenditure, and financing framework.	September 1998	WB, UNDP, DFID, UNESCO
		Improve quality of, and access to, basic education and strengthen higher education to emphasize science and technology.	1998-2001	AfDB
		Introduce new curriculum, strengthen teacher training, and enhance supply of learning materials.	1998-99
Health sector	Improve access to, and quality of, health services.	Update the sector strategy and formulate a medium-term policy, expenditure, and financing framework.	September 1998	WB
		Increase the number of trained medical and nursing staff in primary health care; emphasize immunization, nutrition programs, and AIDS control programs.	1998-2001
		Train more medical professionals and technicians.	Ongoing
		Formulate and adopt a population policy.	2000
Gender and role of women	Establish framework for development of women.	Finalize and adopt laws to give women the rights to inherit and own property.	1998
		Follow through with educating the public on the laws on women's rights to ensure compliance.	1998-99
		Increase enrollment, retention, and progression of girls in educational institutions, and strengthen nonformal education targeting rural women.	1998-2001
Theme VIII. Poverty Reduction and Revitalizing the Rural Economy
Poverty reduction and rural development	Improve living conditions in rural areas and reduce poverty generally.	Formulate and implement a poverty eradication strategy and action plan.	1999-2000	WB, AfDB, UNDP
	Assist and empower vulnerable groups.	Undertake targeted poverty alleviation programs at communal level.	1998-2001	AfDB, UNDP
	Systematically monitor poverty and social indicators.	Establish a poverty-monitoring Observatoire between MFEP and social ministries.	1998	AfDB, UNDP
Reviving agriculture	Achieve rapid agricultural productivity growth based on a more intensive and efficient use of land.	Formulate and adopt an agricultural sector strategy and action plan based on stakeholder consultations.	1998	EU, FAO, WB
		Adopt a land reform law that provides for security of tenure and improves land use.	1998-2001	WB
		Develop a policy on utilization of food aid.	1999
	Develop a strategy and action plan for modern livestock development, as well as for the fisheries subsector.	Study, design, and implement systems to improve availability of veterinary services, drugs and water, and to improve breeding.	1998-2001	Donors
		Study and implement a system for improved development of fisheries.
	Develop a sustainable agricultural input distribution system.	Study and implement a market-based distribution system for fertilizers, high-yielding seed varieties, and other inputs, with subsidies granted to target groups.	1998-99	WB
		Develop rural credit and other financial mechanisms for rural-based activities.	1998-2001	WB
	Produce, process, and market coffee efficiently.	Revise coffee sector laws and regulations to further liberalize coffee sector and establish a proper role for OCIR-CAFE.	1999-2000
		Progressively eliminate the coffee export tax.	1999-2000
	Improve level and quality of both traditional and nontraditional export crops.	Raise producer prices for tea by reducing the gap vis-à-vis world price. Revise the price structure to pay a premium price for higher-quality tea.	1998-99
		Develop a regulatory framework for the tea sector to support privatization and liberalization of the sector.	1999
Renewing natural resources	Arrest further environmental degradation and renew and protect natural resources and biodiversity.	Strengthen the capacity for environmental policy development and assessment, and for the enforcement of environmental regulations.	Ongoing
		Review and update the National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP).	March 1999
Theme IX. National Reintegration, Governance, Transparency, and Reconciliation
Rebuilding the social fabric, reintegration, and national reconciliation	Foster conditions for peaceful coexistence of all Rwandese and for respect for human rights.	Assist new- and old-case load refugees and vulnerable groups in economic and social reintegration.	Ongoing
		Establish commissions for human rights, national reconciliation, and legal and constitutional affairs.	1998
		Strengthen capacity to expedite trials of genocide perpetrators.	1998-2001
	Support the victims of genocide.	Make operational the Genocide Victims' Assistance Fund.	Ongoing
Decentralization	Strengthen community spirit, decentralize decision making, and enhance participation at community level.	Build and strengthen the role of local communities and the poor in economic and social decision making; strengthen nonformal education and other capacity-building efforts targeted at rural populations.	1998-2001	WB, UNDP
Demobilization	Progressively reduce the burden of defense expenditures on public resources, consistent with security needs.	Complete the action plan regarding phased demobilization of soldiers, and continue with demobilization.	Ongoing	WB, UNDP
Reintegration	Reintegrate demobilized and returned former soldiers into productive and peaceful civilian life.	Provide short-term reinsertion assistance to demobilized soldiers. Provide long-term assistance for economic and social integration, including vocational training programs and microfinance schemes for demobilized and returned former soldiers.	1998-2001	GTZ, UNDP, donors
Governance and transparency	Provide for greater accountability and transparency.	Establish an Anti-Corruption Bureau/Inspectorate General of Government.	1999	Donors
1 April 1998 through March 2001.
2 Technical Assistance (TA) Requirements: AfDB = African Development Bank; DFID = Department for International Development; EU = European Union; FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; GTZ = Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit; ILO = International Labor Organization; IMF = International Monetary Fund; UNDP = United Nations Development Program; UNESCO = United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; and WB = World Bank.

 
 

Table 2. Rwanda: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1993-2001

	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997		1998	1999	2000	2001
					Orig.	Est.	Projections
	(Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
Output and prices
Real GDP growth	-8.1	-49.5	36.6	12.0	12.7	10.9	6.7	8.0	8.0	7.5
GDP deflator	13.9	15.0	54.2	9.6	5.0	18.6	8.5	5.5	5.0	4.7
Consumer prices (period average)	8.6	64.0	22.0	8.9	7.0	12.0	11.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
Consumer prices (end-period)	12.5	64.4	38.3	9.2	5.0	17.0	7.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
External sector
Export, f.o.b (in U.S. dollars)	-1.6	-52.5	56.8	22.9	3.5	41.0	-9.1	3.3	7.6	11.6
Imports, f.o.b (in U.S. dollars)	11.1	37.2	-47.2	9.9	22.3	31.5	14.6	7.9	8.5	8.7
Export volume	-13.6	-54.0	1.5	42.6	-1.8	24.8	5.3	14.8	13.7	12.7
Import volume	15.0	29.2	-53.8	5.1	24.4	45.3	15.7	6.3	7.1	7.1
Nominal effective exchange rate (end-period; depreciation -)	22.4	2.9	-54.8	3.8	. . .	11.3	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .
Real effective exchange rate	16.0	51.3	-39.4	9.2	. . .	20.0	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .
Terms of trade (deterioration -)	20.9	0.7	37.3	-16.1	7.3	22.5	-12.8	-11.3	-6.6	-2.4
Government finance
Revenue and grants	-0.6	-82.9	720.0	15.1	26.9	40.9	22.0	3.0	14.0	15.9
Revenue	-6.2	-76.8	285.0	70.6	25.8	47.3	19.7	19.2	18.6	19.0
Total expenditure and net lending	-0.9	-60.5	160.9	37.2	36.4	19.5	39.0	2.3	9.1	10.7
Current expenditure	-4.8	-49.0	89.6	32.8	7.7	14.5	29.7	9.2	9.7	10.7
Money and credit
Net domestic assets1	24.1	-2.2	3.2	-7.6	9.0	15.0	9.6	10.2	. . .	. . .
Domestic credit1	22.3	-7.8	-2.4	-2.6	15.1	24.1	12.0	13.8	. . .	. . .
Government1	11.3	-1.6	-35.1	-2.8	6.9	0.4	0.9	3.0	. . .	. . .
Economy1	11.0	-6.1	32.8	0.2	8.2	23.7	11.1	10.9	. . .	. . .
Money and quasi-money (M2)	4.7	-7.6	71.9	8.3	20.6	27.6	17.3	13.9	13.4	12.6
Reserve money	27.9	8.9	37.7	22.4	28.0	11.2	16.3	12.0	. . .	. . .
Velocity (ratio of GDP to M2)	4.5	7.2	5.5	6.3	5.9	6.5	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4
Interest rate (one-year savings deposits; end-period)	9.0	9.0	12.0	11.0	. . .	11.4	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .
	(In percent of GDP)
National income accounts
National savings (excluding official transfers)	0.4	-49.0	-11.9	-8.9	-1.1	-6.8	-4.9	-2.1	-0.5	2.2
Of which: private	7.3	-39.2	-6.5	-5.0	. . .	-5.8	-2.8	-1.1	-0.3	1.4
Gross investment	15.2	4.3	8.6	10.3	17.5	10.8	15.2	16.1	16.6	18.0
Of which: private	7.6	1.6	0.7	1.1	1.6	1.8	3.4	6.5	7.4	9.0
Government finance
Total revenue and grants	15.5	4.6	17.7	16.6	18.6	17.8	18.7	16.9	17.0	17.5
Total revenue	9.1	3.7	6.7	9.3	10.3	10.3	10.7	11.2	11.7	12.4
Total expenditure and net lending	23.6	16.1	20.0	22.3	27.7	20.3	24.3	21.9	21.0	20.7
Current expenditure	15.3	13.4	12.1	13.1	12.7	11.4	12.8	12.2	11.8	11.7
Primary fiscal balance
Including exceptional social expenditure2	-4.1	-5.3	-3.2	-2.2	-0.9	0.2	-1.1	-0.2	0.6	1.5
Excluding exceptional social expenditure and including domestic capital expenditure	-4.1	-5.4	-3.2	-1.8	-1.1	0.3	-0.2	0.4	1.1	1.5
Overall balance (payment order)
Excluding grants	-14.5	-12.4	-13.3	-13.1	-17.4	-9.9	-13.7	-10.7	-9.3	-8.3
Including grants	-8.2	-11.5	-2.3	-5.7	-9.0	-2.5	-5.6	-4.9	-4.0	-3.2
External sector
External current account balance
Excluding official transfers	-14.8	-53.4	-20.5	-19.1	-18.6	-17.6	-20.1	-18.2	-17.0	-15.8
Including official transfers	-6.4	-6.2	4.6	-0.3	-7.8	-4.9	-6.1	-6.3	-5.5	-4.8
External debt (end-period)3	42.7	138.3	88.6	79.6	83.4	62.7	63.6	63.9	62.1	58.8
Debt-service ratio (in percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)	25.8	62.4	54.4	44.4	44.8	32.4	41.1	49.0	48.0	42.5
Gross reserves (in months of imports, c.i.f.)	1.6	1.3	5.0	5.0	4.4	5.3	6.0	6.5	5.9	4.4
	(In millions of U. S. dollars)
Overall balance of payments	-63.6	-32.0	64.1	-0.5	-84.1	-11.6	-80.2	-93.0	-81.8	-77.5
External arrears	. . .	. . .	. . .	79.5	0.0	97.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
External financing gap	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	101.1	0.0	192.3	103.1	58.8	42.9
External debt (end-period)3	841	1038	1064	1111	1256	1164	1304	1450	1569	1640
Gross official reserves	48	51	99	107	112	153	196	230	228	182
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (in billions of RF)5	284.4	165.1	347.7	427.0	482.8	561.6	650.1	740.7	839.9	945.4
Nominal exchange rate (period average; per U.S. dollar)	144.3	220.0	290.0	306.0	320.4	302.4	317.0	326.2	332.6	339.0
Domestic debt (end-period; in percent of GDP)	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	15.8	13.7	12.2	10.4	9.3
Sources: Rwandese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 As percent of beginning-of-period broad money stock. 2 Definition used for the 1997 performance benchmark; excludes all capital expenditure. 3 Including Fund obligations, external arrears, and financing gap; before debt rescheduling and hypothetical stock-of-debt operation. 4 Scheduled debt service before rescheduling and stock-of-debt operation. 5 In December 1997, the national accounts for 1995-97 were revised upward by a cumulative 10 percent reflecting an adjustment in the GDP deflator.

 
 

Table 3. Rwanda: External Financing Requirement and Sources, 1995-2001
(In millions of U.S. dollars)

	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
			Est.	Proj.
Resource balance	-267.4	-279.1	-341.0	-426.8	-429.8	-447.4	-461.9
Exports goods and nonfactor services	66.6	83.5	110.2	102.1	109.0	120.9	140.6
Imports goods and nonfactor services	334.0	362.5	451.2	528.9	538.9	568.3	602.1
Noninterest current account (excluding official transfers)	-232.3	-253.0	-314.6	-396.6	-397.1	-412.3	-423.6
Scheduled interest	-13.9	-14.1	-12.2	-15.5	-16.6	-17.4	-17.5
Capital account	-41.0	-50.7	39.1	-18.5	-22.3	-22.0	-23.2
Scheduled amortization	-22.3	-21.7	-21.0	-24.0	-28.1	-28.9	-30.9
Other capital1	-18.7	-29.1	60.1	5.5	5.9	6.9	7.7
Increase in net official reserves (excluding IMF -)	-73.2	-16.2	-47.5	-44.5	-33.8	2.0	46.0
Repurchases/repayments IMF	. . .	-1.3	-2.5	-2.4	-8.6	-11.7	-11.4
Changes in arrears (decrease = -)	-4.5	18.1	17.5	-97.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
External financing requirements	-365.0	-317.3	-320.2	-575.1	-478.7	-461.6	-430.5
Disbursements: existing commitments	365.0	317.3	320.2	380.6	343.3	370.2	387.6
Grants (project and nonproject)	300.7	263.6	235.5	287.5	270.9	290.2	307.0
Loans (project and nonproject)	50.7	53.7	63.9	93.1	72.3	80.0	80.5
IDA	50.7	17.4	52.9	60.9	38.0	38.0	41.8
Of which: Project	. . .	. . .	32.9	30.9	38.0	38.0	41.9
Other multilateral banks	0.0	36.3	11.0	32.2	34.3	42.0	38.7
Of which: Project				32.2	34.3	42.0	38.7
Purchases from IMF	13.6	0.0	20.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Disbursements: expected new commitments	. . .	. . .	. . .	59.2	96.3	39.7	0.0
Grants	. . .	. . .	. . .	5.0	6.0	7.0	0.0
Loans	. . .	. . .	. . .	22.0	58.0	0.0	0.0
IDA	. . .	. . .	. . .	10.0	50.0	. . .	. . .
AfDB				12.0	8.0	. . .	. . .
Disbursements from IMF	. . .	. . .	. . .	32.2	32.3	32.7	0.0
Residual financing gap2	0.0	0.0	0.0	-135.2	-39.1	-51.8	-42.9
Sources: Rwandese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 Including foreign direct investment, short-term capital, and errors and omissions. 2 Including prospective debt relief from Paris Club (Naples terms) and non-Paris Club bilateral and commercial creditors on terms comparable to those granted by the Paris Club; possible refinancing for certain multilaterals; and prospective budget support from the World Bank, AfDB, EU, and bilateral donors. Assuming no stock-of-debt operation.

 
 

Table 4. Rwanda: Key Indicators of External Indebtedness, 1995-2001¹

	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	Est.			Proj.
1. Total debt service (2+3)	36.2	37.0	35.7	42.0	53.4	58.0	59.9
2. Principal (5+22)	22.3	22.9	23.5	26.4	36.7	40.6	42.3
3. Interest (13+23)	13.9	14.1	12.2	15.6	16.7	17.4	17.5
4. Scheduled debt service on existing contracted debt (5+15)	36.2	37.0	35.7	40.2	49.9	52.8	53.6
5. Principal (6+12)	22.3	22.9	23.5	26.4	36.7	40.6	42.3
6. Medium- and long-term (7+8+11)	22.3	22.9	23.5	26.4	36.7	40.6	42.3
7. Multilateral	15.2	15.3	15.7	16.9	24.4	28.6	30.6
8. Official bilateral (9+10)	5.5	6.2	6.4	9.5	12.3	12.0	11.8
9. Paris Club	1.4	1.5	1.7	4.7	7.4	7.4	7.5
10. Other official2	4.1	4.6	4.7	4.8	4.9	4.6	4.2
11. Commercial2	1.6	1.5	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12. Short-term	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13. Interest (14+20)	13.9	14.1	12.2	13.9	13.1	12.3	11.2
14. Medium- and long-term (15+16+19)	13.9	14.1	12.2	13.9	13.1	12.3	11.2
15. Multilateral	10.3	10.6	9.0	10.8	10.4	9.9	9.1
16. Official bilateral (19+22)	3.6	3.5	3.2	3.0	2.7	2.4	2.2
17. Paris Club (20+21)	2.7	2.6	2.3	2.3	2.1	1.8	1.6
18. Other official2	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5
19. Commercial2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
20. Short-term	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
21. Debt service on new borrowing (22+23)	. . .	. . .	. . .	1.7	3.6	5.1	6.3
22. Principal	. . .	. . .	. . .	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
23. Interest	. . .	. . .	. . .	1.7	3.6	5.1	6.3
Memorandum items:
Total debt service in percent of export of goods and nonfactor services
Before flow rescheduling	54.4	44.4	32.4	41.1	49.0	48.0	42.5
After flow rescheduling3	54.4	44.4	32.4	31.9	35.2	36.1	40.0
Total debt stock (in U.S. dollars)	1063	1111	1164	1304	1450	1569	1640
NPV of debt in percent of exports of goods and services3
Debt service after rescheduling in percent of
Government revenue	45.5	28.7	18.7	14.9	15.1	14.8	16.3
Government expenditure	25.0	20.3	16.9	12.4	13.8	14.6	17.4
Exports of goods and nonfactor services	66.6	83.5	110.2	102.1	109.0	120.9	140.6
Sources: Rwandese and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1 Public and publicly guaranteed debt. 2 Assuming that debt service vis-à-vis non-Paris Club bilateral and commercial creditors receives the same treatment as debt vis-à-vis Paris Club creditors (i.e., Naples terms). 3 Assuming a flow rescheduling on Naples terms of arrears outstanding at end-March 1998 and maturities falling due during March 1998-2001 vis-à-vis official bilateral and commercial creditors; no stock-of-debt operation is assumed.

 
 

Table 5. Rwanda: Selected Demographic and Social Indicators
(In units indicated)

Indicator	1980	1985	Most recent estimate (1995 unless otherwise stated)	Sub-Saharan Africa
Total population (thousands)	5,136	6,954	7,850	571,902
Annual growth rate (percent)1	3.4	2.4	3.6	2.8
Urban population (in percent of total)	. . .	5	8	31
Life expectancy at birth (years)	47	. . .	39	52
Male	45	. . .	40	51
Female	. . .	. . .	38	54
Total fertility rate (births per woman)2	8.2	. . .	8.3	6.1
Labor force
Total, ages 15-64 (thousands)	2,637	3,630	4,017	251,637
Employment in agriculture (percent of total)	93	91	90	65
Education
Net primary school enrollment ratio (in percent)	63	70	70	66
Male	66	70	. . .	79
Female	60	69	. . .	62
Secondary school enrollment ratio (in percent)	3	8	8	18
Primary pupil to teacher ratio (pupils per teacher)	59	57	53	40
Adult illiteracy rate (in percent of population ages 15 and above)	. . .	50	40	53
Of which: females	. . .	63	48	54
Health
Population per doctor (persons)3	31,482	37,153	38,902	. . .
Population per nurse (persons)3	. . .	. . .	7,023	. . .
Population per hospital bed (persons)	654	. . .	. . .	1,316
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)	128	. . .	133	92
Child malnutrition (percent of children under 5 yrs)	. . .	. . .	28	. . .
Access to safe water (percentage of population)		. . .	. . .	47
Urban	. . .	55	. . .	. . .
Rural	. . .	68	. . .	. . .
Immunization rate (percent of population)	. . .	. . .
BCG	. . .	. . .	93	. . .
Polio	. . .	. . .	99	. . .
Measles	. . .	52	88	60
Poverty
Percentage of population below poverty line	. . .	40	70	. . .
Poverty gap (percentage by which average income of poor households is below poverty line)	. . .	8	15	. . .
Source: World Bank.
1 The number in the 1995 column refers to 1997 estimates. 2 The number in the 1995 columns refers to 1996 estimates. 3 The number in the 1995 columns refers to 1991 estimates.