Mr. Horst Köhler
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street NW
Washington, D.C. 20431
Dear Mr. Köhler:
2. Following the worst flooding in recent history, the Royal Government of Cambodia is
committed to taking action to minimize the impact on economic growth, inflation, and the
implementation of structural reforms. The delays experienced in completing the pilot program of
military demobilization, mostly owing to difficulties in securing timely disbursement of
committed foreign financing, will be recouped. Efforts to establish a computerized civil service
payroll system and to prepare a broad-based reform strategy for the civil service will also be
continued.
3. The government's economic program for 2001 is aimed at promoting sustained growth and
employment, raising the standard of living of the population, and reducing poverty. The program
provides for continued fiscal and monetary restraint and is centered on the implementation of the
demobilization program, revenue enhancement, and restructuring of the banking system.
4. The government has successfully completed the preparation of an Interim Poverty
Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) and is committed to submitting a full PRSP by end-2001. The
full PRSP will be prepared by the Ministry of Planning and will be synchronized with the
preparation of the second socio-economic development plan (SEDP II) covering 2001-05. The
process for preparing the full PRSP will be based on broad consultation between government
ministries, civil society, donors, and NGO's and will take into consideration the evaluation of the
Interim PRSP, as reflected in the joint assessment (JSA) of the World Bank and IMF staff.
5. The government believes that the policies and measures described in the attached
memorandum are adequate to achieve the objectives of the program for 2001, and stands ready to
take additional measures that may become necessary for this purpose. The government will
remain in close consultation with the IMF in accordance with the IMF's policies on such
consultations, and will provide the IMF with such information as it requests on the progress
made in policy implementation and the achievement of program objectives. In any event,
Cambodia will conduct with the IMF the next review of the arrangement no later than end-July
2001.
6. In continuing with our policy of transparency, we consent to the publication, including on
the IMF's website, of: (i) the attached Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies; (ii) the
accompanying Executive Board documents prepared by the IMF staff; and (iii) the JSA of the
Interim PRSP.
CAMBODIA
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies for
2001
December 18, 2000
I. Introduction and Recent Developments
1. Cambodia's PRGF-supported program aims at raising the standard of
living of the population, creating new employment opportunities, and reducing poverty. To
that end, the program includes a mix of macroeconomic and structural policies geared toward
promoting sustained economic growth over the medium term. The program is centered on a
reorientation of fiscal policy seeking to achieve: (i) a strengthening of fiscal revenue in line with
international standards; (ii) a reallocation of expenditure away from defense and security and
toward the social sectors; (iii) improved provision of public services through civil service and
administrative reform; and (iv) enhanced governance at all levels. In addition, the program
includes a comprehensive set of key institutional reforms in the areas of forestry policy, bank
restructuring, trade policy, and legal reform intended to form the basis for a sound business
environment.
2. All quantitative benchmarks and performance criteria through
end-September 2000 were observed. However, severe flooding during the second half of the
year will have an adverse impact on economic performance. While the garment and tourist
sectors have expanded as foreseen, agricultural output will decline owing to the impact of the
flooding, which has substantially damaged the rice crop and key transportation infrastructure.
While the initial impact on prices was mitigated by existing stocks and donor assistance, food
prices have started to increase. However, reflecting low prices for most of the year, and despite
higher oil prices, the average inflation rate for 2000, as measured by the Consumer Price Index
(CPI), is expected to be less than 2 percent.1
3. Budgetary performance has continued to improve in 2000. The
government has implemented the budget cautiously and has managed to prevent a significant
deterioration in fiscal balances related to the flooding and increased oil prices. The current
budget surplus is projected at 1.3 percent of GDP, compared with a program target of
1.4 percent of GDP, owing to increased spending on flood relief. Total revenue, at 11.6
percent of GDP, is expected to be marginally short of the program target because of
lower-than-expected collection of trade taxes stemming from sharply lower volumes of cigarette
imports and lack of sufficient progress in improving customs administration. The overall budget
deficit is expected to increase to 5_ percent of GDP, reflecting the increased spending for flood
relief. As a result, domestic financing of the budget is expected to exceed the original program,
but will still provide for a repayment to the domestic banking system of CR 20 billion.
4. The implementation of comprehensive revenue-enhancing measures in
mid-year has helped to contain the revenue shortfall. Revenue from direct and indirect taxes
has increased significantly, owing to improved collections from the profit tax and value-added
tax (VAT). Further progress is also being made in broadening the base of the VAT by including
500 additional firms. Total nontax revenue is estimated at 3 percent of GDP, in line with the
original program, as progress was made in collecting arrears related to telecommunications and
profits from state-owned companies, and in raising royalties from tourist service providers.
5. The desired disbursement of government spending for the priority social
sectors has lagged behind program targets in the first nine months. As of end-September,
overall expenditure for health, education, and rural development was only about 42 percent of
budgeted outlays. The shortfalls reflect a delay in the implementation of the Priority Action
Program (PAP) for the health and education sectors, as well as problems at the provincial level in
spending centrally allocated funds. However, social spending is expected to increase significantly
in the last quarter of the year, as the implementation of the PAP for health has been accelerated
beginning in October and large bulk drug purchases are scheduled to take place in the last two
months of the year.
6. Monetary developments in 2000 largely reflect the fiscal policy stance
and the broad dollarization of the economy. Broad money is expected to rise by 35 percent,
in line with program projections, primarily due to an increase in foreign currency deposits related
to improved public confidence in the banking system. In contrast, domestic currency in
circulation is expected to rise by only 8 percent, reflecting continued fiscal restraint.
Commercial bank credit to the private sector has been running ahead of the anticipated pace,
reflecting increased credit demand associated in part with higher oil prices, as well as increased
economic activity.
7. The external current account deficit for 2000 has increased, as anticipated under the
program. Total imports have increased in line with economic recovery in the manufacturing
sector, while imports of petroleum products have risen substantially. Exports of goods and
services have been buoyant, owing to higher garment exports and tourism receipts. The increase
in international reserves is expected to be in line with the original program target, reflecting
increased capital inflows. The exchange rate has been stable, despite the strength of the U.S.
dollar--and depreciation of other regional currencies--reflecting continued monetary and fiscal
restraint.
8. Decisive actions relating to structural reform have also been initiated
during 2000. Major achievements in this area include: (i) completion of discharge and
reinsertion components of the pilot demobilization program and preparation of a financial and
technical assessment; (ii) implementation of the civil service census and elimination of identified
"ghost" employees; (iii) improved forest crime monitoring and completion of a
forestry concession review; (iv) completion of bank relicensing and initial capitalization of the
Foreign Trade Bank; and (v) adoption of a new contract for pre-shipment inspection (PSI).
However, there have been delays in important areas of structural reform, including securing
financing for the first tranche of the full demobilization program, and in completing the
computerization of the payroll and fingerprinting of the civil service.
II. Macroeconomic Framework and Structural
Policies for 2001
9. The macroeconomic outlook for 2001 is expected to be affected by the
recent flooding and continued high oil prices. While damage to the road network could
affect trading activity, a recovery in agriculture, further growth in the garment and tourism
sectors, and increased spending on rehabilitation, are projected to lead to a recovery of economic
growth broadly in line with program targets. Inflationary pressures are expected to strengthen
somewhat in late 2000 and early 2001, owing to the lagged effect of higher oil prices and
expected increases in food prices. Government attention to addressing widespread flood damage
during the last quarter of the year has also delayed the implementation of some key structural
reforms, including demobilization and civil service reform. Despite these temporary setbacks, the
government is determined to consistently implement agreed policies.
10. Achieving proper governance at all levels of government is a
prerequisite for establishing a sound institutional framework fully supportive of private
sector-based economic growth. The government's policy stance in this area, as presented in
the draft Governance Action Plan (GAP) submitted to donors at the May 2000 Consultative
Group Meeting, provides a comprehensive framework for eliminating the identified bottlenecks
and reducing corruption. The GAP calls for broad-based reforms covering: (i) the judicial and
legal system; (ii) public finance management; (iii) military demobilization;
(iv) administrative reform; (v) specific anti-corruption actions; and (v) strengthening
management of land and natural resources. The GAP has been reviewed by line ministries,
donors, and NGOs and the final report has been submitted to the Council of Ministers. Upon
approval of the GAP, the government will elaborate a comprehensive blueprint providing for
specific actions, timing, and financial resource requirements, in consultation with donors.
Decisions on Board members to be appointed to the National Audit Authority (NAA) will be
finalized and adequate resources provided, to ensure the beginning of operations by end-March
2001. The government also plans to submit revised commercial legislation to the National
Assembly. Draft laws on trademarks and commercial enterprises will be submitted by early 2001,
draft laws on commercial contracts and arbitration by mid-2001, and draft laws on corporate
insolvency and secured transactions by end-2001.
11. The 2001 budget framework makes further progress toward achieving
the government's medium-term fiscal objectives. The budget is
centered on the following objectives: (i) raising revenue to 12.1 percent of GDP, in line with the
target of 13 percent of GDP for 2002; (ii) reducing defense and security expenditure from
3.6 percent of GDP in 2000 to 3.1 percent in 2001; (iii) increasing the share of social spending in
total expenditure; (iv) providing for rehabilitation from flood damage; and (v) refraining from
domestic borrowing. Accordingly, the 2001 current budget surplus is programmed to be
1.4 percent of GDP. The overall fiscal deficit, inclusive of development expenditure, is
expected to be contained below 6 percent of GDP. The government will continue small
repayments to the banking system, to allow further easing of credit allocation to the private
sector. The information system required for proper monitoring of fiscal operations will also be
strengthened. To that end, and based on technical assistance to be provided by the IMF, the
Ministry of Economy and Finance will report fiscal data to the IMF in accordance with
Government Finance Statistics (GFS) standards by end-2001.
12. The 2001 budget provides for several revenue-enhancing
measures. Overall revenue is anticipated to increase by about ½ a percentage point of
GDP, largely owing to: (i) the full-year impact of revenue measures introduced in
mid-2000 in the context of the first review; and (ii) additional measures included in the 2001
budget.2 Furthermore,
efforts to upgrade tax and customs administrations will continue, in particular through technical
assistance provided under the Technical Cooperation Action Plan (TCAP). To broaden the tax
base further, the government intends to submit a revised Law on Investment to the
National Assembly (as agreed under the World Bank SAC) by end-February 2001 that will,
among other things, subject all imports for approved projects to a minimum import duty rate. The
policy of auctioning all new garment quota allocations, with full and timely transfer of all
resulting revenue to the budget, will also be maintained.
13. Efforts to reduce defense and security spending in tandem with raising
social expenditure will be continued in 2001. This is largely contingent on the timely
implementation of the demobilization program, and improved expenditure management. Total
expenditure is expected to increase to 18 percent of GDP, compared with 17½ percent of
GDP budgeted in 2000. To meet expenditure requirements and maintain a current budget surplus,
current expenditure in 2001 is expected to increase in line with revenue, to
10½ percent of GDP. Despite a rapid response of humanitarian assistance in the
wake of the recent heavy flooding, additional current expenditure to cushion the adverse impact
on the rural population (amounting to CR 25 billion) has been budgeted for 2001. Overall
development expenditure is targeted to rise slightly to 7½ percent of GDP. Within that
target, domestically financed capital outlays are expected to increase to 2_ percent of GDP,
reflecting increased spending on flood rehabilitation. The efficiency of project implementation
and monitoring will be strengthened and scrutiny of procurement standards and practices will be
upgraded. The government is fully committed to the avoidance of budgetary payments
arrears.
14. Increased levels and adequate composition of social expenditure are
central to ensuring the government's objective of alleviating poverty in the medium term, as set
forth in the interim PRSP document. Consistent with the government's commitment under
the World Bank's SAC, priority social outlays are targeted to account for 28 percent of
total current expenditure in 2001. To that end, the government intends to increase spending for
education, health, agriculture, and rural development to 3 percent of GDP. In parallel, ongoing
donor-supported programs to improve the efficiency of health and education spending will be
strengthened.
15. As part of the strategy to redirect expenditure toward social needs, the
government remains strongly committed to implement the demobilization program, as agreed
with international partners. The government, together with donors, will assess the pilot
program in the context of a workshop to be completed by end-February 2001. In line with the
agreed targets under the demobilization program, and subject to timely funding availability by
donors, the discharge of soldiers under the full program will begin by end-May 2001, and at least
10,000 soldiers will be discharged by end-2001.
16. The government is implementing an administrative reform program
aimed at improving the quality of service delivery and strengthening governance.
Preparatory efforts for administration reform are being undertaken with a view to designing a
strategy by end-March 2001 to rationalize the civil service, in consultation with the World Bank
and donors. To validate the recently completed civil service census and ensure the integrity of the
payroll, a computerized payroll will be implemented for all central administration employees by
end-December 2000 and by end-July 2001 in all provinces. In this context, the computerized
payroll has already been used to verify the removal of previously identified "ghost"
employees in several ministries, and this process will be continued as the computerized payroll is
completed. No additional new hiring will take place until the strategy to rationalize the civil
service has been announced, and thereafter all hiring will be monitored through the use of a
Human Resource Management Information System (HRMS), as it is developed. To finance
potential costs associated with the implementation of civil service rationalization, the 2001
budget provides for specific provisions set under a reserve fund amounting to CR 20 billion. To
monitor progress in this area, the government began providing periodical information to the IMF
and the World Bank in an agreed format in November 2000.
17. The monetary program for 2001 is consistent with the objectives for
growth and inflation described above. Monetary policy will continue to reflect fiscal
restraint and the need to promote private sector activities, while containing any emerging
inflationary pressures. The average annual growth rate of currency in circulation is expected to be
less than 10 percent, reflecting continued fiscal restraint. The increase in broad money is
projected at 24 percent, reflecting a further rise in foreign currency deposits, in line with
strengthened public confidence in the banking system. Commercial bank lending to the private
sector is projected to increase by 25 percent in 2001, and will remain under close monitoring to
help ensure loan quality.
18. The government will continue to pursue a flexible exchange rate
policy. To that end, the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) will adhere to its current
intervention policy of using any increased demand for local currency to bolster international
reserves while not resisting downward pressure on the rate except under exceptional
circumstances of disorderly market conditions. The official exchange rate is increasingly being
set at the level of the market rate with a view to unifying the rate in the future. Any deviations
from the market rate would be temporary, and limited to a maximum of one percent.
19. The agenda of trade reform in connection with Cambodia's
participation in the ASEAN free-trade area (AFTA) and accession to the WTO will be
continued. In the 2001 budget, the number of tariff bands will be reduced from 12 to 4, and
the maximum tariff rate will be lowered to 35 percent. The impact on revenue will be
compensated by adjustments in selected excise rates. The reduction in the number of tariff bands
and overall duty rates incorporated in the budget is a crucial step toward promoting increased
integration in the global economy. Cambodia's application for accession to WTO has been
submitted and compliance with WTO requirements will be pursued during 2001. Cambodia's
exchange and trade system is free of restrictions on current account transactions. Accordingly,
the government intends to accept the obligations of Article VIII in the context of the 2001 Article
IV consultation.
20. In view of Cambodia's limited debt-servicing capacity, the government
will maintain a prudent debt management policy and will strengthen debt monitoring
capabilities. The government intends to continue efforts to resolve pending debt issues with
Paris Club and former CMEA creditors. The government will also refrain from contracting any
nonconcessional debt, as defined in the attached technical memorandum. Cambodia has
complied with the IMF's initial requirements under the Safeguards Assessment by supplying the
requested financial information on the accounts of the NBC for the period 1997-99. The NBC
will complete an external audit of its 2000 financial accounts by end-April 2001.
21. The government will intensify financial sector reform in 2001, with a
view to establishing a sound banking system, promoting savings, and increasing the confidence
of the public. After announcing final relicensing decisions, the licenses of nonviable banks
have been withdrawn and provisional administrators are being placed in banks where necessary
to prevent asset stripping and ensure bank liquidation in an orderly manner. Potentially viable
banks will be relicensed, subject to the signing of Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs). The
MOUs specify the conditions on further capital increases, and compliance with regulatory
requirements. NBC will ensure proper monitoring of MOU implementation on a continual basis
during 2001, and will prepare monthly progress reports and quarterly reviews of MOUs. Banking
supervision capabilities will also be upgraded with technical assistance from the IMF. To
establish the ground for a modern payments system, NBC will initiate dollar clearing and
settlement in January 2001 and prepare a draft Payments Law by end-June 2001.
22. As part of bank reform, the Foreign Trade Bank (FTB) will be
restructured in 2001 and subsequently privatized. A board of directors has been appointed,
and based on the outcome of a recent audit, the FTB will be recapitalized in two stages: (i) the
NBC has transferred to the FTB real estate to fulfill the initial capital requirement of CR
10 billion; and (ii) the Ministry of Economy and Finance will issue government bonds to
bring FTB's capital up to statutory requirements by end-June 2001. Technical assistance from the
IMF will be provided to assist in the design and issuance of capitalization bonds. In preparation
for future privatization, the FTB will upgrade its management capabilities, including through
recruitment of foreign managers, and will seek private shareholders. In addition to ongoing
assistance from the IMF, the government will request assistance from IFC and AsDB to complete
the restructuring and privatization process in a timely and orderly manner.
23. The government will continue strengthening the legal framework
supporting forestry activity, complete concession restructuring, review the forestry revenue
system and further improve forest crime monitoring. A new draft Forestry Law, aimed at
establishing the basis for sustainable forest resource management will be submitted to the
National Assembly by end-February 2001. Forest crime monitoring and reporting, and the
publication of quarterly reports, will continue in 2001. Remaining forest concessions that have
not completed restructuring agreements by end-September 2001 will be cancelled. In the
meantime, new cutting permits will be issued only when the required inventory information has
been provided, and the annual allowable cuts for all new permits will be reduced by 50-70
percent, until restructured concession agreements have been concluded. Following completion of
an industry-sponsored study, the government will complete a review of the forestry revenue
system in consultation with the World Bank and IMF staff by end-April 2001.
24. Efforts to eliminate data shortcomings in key areas of social and
economic statistics will be stepped-up with support from the IMF and donors. Highest
priority has been granted to strengthening compilation and management of fiscal and balance of
payments data. IMF assistance on GFS and balance of payments statistics has already been
committed. With the assistance of the technical advisor to the Customs Department, efforts over
the next few months will be directed at improving the timely compilation of trade data and
developing regular and consistent monthly analysis of customs revenue. Cambodia intends to
participate in the IMF's General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), with a view to using
GDDS as a framework for statistical development. Actions are under way with donor assistance
to establish a comprehensive set of social indicators required for the purpose of monitoring
progress in poverty alleviation, as required under the PRSP.
25. Actions to be taken prior to the IMF Executive Board consideration of
the second review and structural performance criteria and benchmarks are contained in the
attached Table 2. Quantitative benchmarks through December 2001
include: (i) a ceiling on net domestic assets of the NBC; (ii) a ceiling on net credit to the
government from the banking system; (iii) a ceiling on net domestic financing of the budget: (iv)
a zero ceiling on publicly-contracted or guaranteed nonconcessional foreign currency loans; and
(v) a floor on net official international reserves of the NBC. All quantitative benchmarks for
end-March 2001 will be performance criteria. The third review under the program is expected to
be completed by end-July 2001, focusing primarily on budget implementation and
demobilization, as well as civil service, forestry, and bank reforms.
This memorandum sets out the understandings between the Cambodian authorities and the
IMF staff regarding the definitions of the quantitative performance criteria and benchmarks for
the program supported by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and the related
reporting system of monetary and financial data.