Historical experience suggests that stabilizing debt across sub-Saharan Africa is still achievable in most cases, even though debt levels are elevated and vulnerabilities are high. Countries in the region, over recent decades, have often been able to consolidate (stabilize or reduce) their debt ratios without debt restructuring. Many countries have done so recently, even after the end of the commodity super cycle. Successful debt stabilization requires measures to strengthen public finances and a sound macroeconomic environment, strong institutions, and pro-growth structural reforms.

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to nearly half of the world’s fragile and conflict-affected states, where weak institutions and social cohesion, governance failures, and economic instability trap millions in poverty. Some countries have transitioned out of extreme fragility by implementing sound macroeconomic policies, diversifying the economy, and strengthening institutions. Sustaining these reforms, however, is challenging in the context of erratic growth, political instability, exposure to natural disasters, and heavy resource dependency—which tends to heighten vulnerability to price volatility and governance challenges. Meanwhile, weak domestic revenue mobilization and declining aid further hinder development. Without reforms and continued international support, fragility risks worsening regional instability and economic disruptions with global repercussions.

Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, April 2025

A technical assistance mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing quarterly national accounts. It did so by reviewing existing large statistical discrepancies between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure. The mission provided recommendations on improving data sources for the compilation of changes in inventories. The mission also reviewed the release schedule for national accounts data and provided recommendations for further improvement. These improvements to data and a new release schedule will improve the understanding of the Kazakhstan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.

A technical assistance mission assisted the National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSO) in improving methods for the compilation of national accounts. The mission recommended that the NSO compiles the chain-linked time series of quarterly GDP instead of using the fixed-base approach. During the mission, the experimental chain-linked time series were compiled with the reference year 2015. Chained-linked time series undoubtedly have a great advantage over the use of a fixed base year, since they consider the updated structure of the economy and provide more reliable results that will be used for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.

Join IMF Staff for an insightful presentation of the latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere on Friday, April 25, 2025, at 1:30 PM ET.

A hard-won recovery in sub-Saharan Africa has been overtaken by recent events. The sudden shift in the global outlook has clouded the region’s short-term prospects and made policy even more challenging. Adding to existing policy complications there is now an extra premium on resilience—a country’s ability to rebound quickly from future shocks. The region’s progress and perseverance over the past few years is notable, but continued efforts will be needed to sustain the recovery and enhance the region’s resilience. Caution, consistency, and credibility are now more important than ever.

Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook. Global public debt projections have been revised upwards, while tariffs, market volatility, increased defense spending, and challenging foreign aid are intensifying risks. Countries must implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks, reducing debt and building buffers against heightened uncertainty.

This Handbook provides guidance to staff on the IMF’s facilities available to countries eligible to obtain concessional financing from the Fund under the PRGT, namely low-income countries (LICs). It updates the previous version of the Handbook that was published in March 2023 by incorporating modifications resulting from the 2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing and other recent policy papers. Designed as a comprehensive reference tool for program work in LICs, this Handbook also refers, in summary form, to a range of relevant policies that apply more generally to IMF members. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board decisions, including the terms of the various LIC Trust Instruments that have been adopted by the Board, remain the primary legal authority on the matters covered in this Handbook.

Against the heightened volatility of asset prices, Chapter 1 assesses that global financial stability risks have increased significantly. This assessment is supported by three key forward-looking vulnerabilities: (i) valuations remain high in some key markets; (ii) some highly leveraged financial institutions and their nexus with banking systems; and (iii) risks of market turmoil and challenges to debt sustainability for highly indebted sovereigns. 

Chapter 2 shows that major geopolitical risk events can trigger a significant decline in stock prices and raise sovereign risk premiums, thereby posing a potential threat to macro-financial stability.    

The assessments and analyses in this GFSR are based on financial market data available to IMF staff through April 15, 2025, but may not reflect published data by that date in all cases.