Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, October 1, 2026

IMF News, October 1, 2026

Source details

Canonical URL: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, October 1, 2026

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Published: October 1, 2026

Announcements and logistics

The briefing was embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
The Managing Director was in Bahrain to participate in the annual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.
The Managing Director will deliver a Curtain Raiser speech at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore on Wednesday, October 7th at 2 p.m. local time (2 a.m. Washington, D.C. time). The speech will be followed by a Fireside Chat with Singapore President Tharman and will be live streamed on IMF.org.
Registration remains open for the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 12 through 18; registrants are encouraged to apply for registration and visas through IMFConnect.org.

Upcoming IMF flagship releases (timing and topics)

October 5: World Economic Outlook chapter on spillovers from corporate income taxation; Fiscal Monitor chapter on taxation and growth.
October 6: World Economic Outlook chapter on lessons from the cost-of-living crises; Global Financial Stability Report chapter on hedge funds and financial stability.
October 8: Global Financial Stability Report chapter on the tokenization of financial assets.

Global bond yields, inflation, and energy effects

Findings and drivers:

Global bond yields have risen recently in both advanced economies and some emerging economies, affecting short-term and long-term yields.
Short-term yields: increases were driven in part by rises in energy prices that altered market expectations regarding the path of monetary policy; some central banks have reacted with monetary policy tightening.
Long-term yields: influenced by changing expectations about central bank policy paths, concerns about high levels of debt, and an increase in term premia.
Emerging economies: yields have risen while emerging market spreads have been declining, partly offsetting spread compression as many emerging economies strengthened fundamentals through reforms over recent decades.
Bond markets continue to function in an orderly manner.

Inflation outlook and related observations:

The energy shock feeding headline inflation is not over; oil and gas prices remain elevated and refined product prices for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are up between 60 and 97 percent relative to their pre-conflict levels, reflecting limited refining capacity and near-full operation of alternative refining hubs.
Increased demand for energy (including from AI) is contributing to elevated prices.
The disinflation process in some countries has stalled and inflation pressures remain persistent across many IMF members.
New inflation forecasts will be released in the October World Economic Outlook during the week of the Annual Meetings in Thailand.

Policy implication highlighted:

Continued monitoring and detailed analysis to be provided in the forthcoming flagship products.

Impact of the conflict (duration, asymmetric effects, and policy buffers)

Findings:

The conflict has been persistent and more prolonged (entering its eighth month at the time of the briefing).
The IMF emphasizes asymmetric impact: countries with limited policy buffers, net energy importers, and countries not integrated into AI-related supply chains are more vulnerable.
Low-income and fragile countries are of greatest concern; many already have IMF arrangements and the Fund has in some cases augmented program size or rephased programs and coordinated with partners.

Scenarios and assessment:

In April, the IMF presented three scenarios given high uncertainty; by the July WEO Update the IMF returned to a more traditional baseline approach.
At the aggregate level, the global economy has shown resilience driven by two opposing forces: a negative energy shock and a positive impulse from AI investment.

Refined products and potential trade policy actions

Findings:

Refined products matter because households and firms consume refined products rather than crude oil.
Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel prices are up between 60 and 97 percent relative to pre-conflict levels due to limited refining capacity and near-full operation of alternative hubs.
Capacity constraints for refined products are a key channel by which supply disruptions amplify consumer and business costs.

Policy stance:

The IMF did not speculate on potential policy actions such as export bans; analysis focuses on supply-side constraints and implications for consumers.

Country-specific updates, missions, and program statuses

Argentina

A technical mission led by Mission Chief Joyce Wong visited Buenos Aires from September 21st through 29th as part of discussions for the Third Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.
Discussions are ongoing to reach a Staff-Level Agreement for the Third Review; topics include potential impacts on tax revenues and fiscal targets.
The IMF notes Argentina has made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability: a big decline in inflation over the last few years, strengthening of the external position with reserves accumulation, and fiscal discipline moving from deficit into fiscal surplus.
Joint priorities with Argentine authorities: continue strengthening resilience and broaden growth beyond energy, mining and agriculture to support durable investment, job creation, and inclusion.
Observed indicators cited by questioners: second-quarter GDP contraction, declines in consumer spending and investment, year-on-year drop in mass market consumption, poverty rate rising by almost four points, and a slight increase in unemployment; these developments are part of ongoing program discussions.

Lebanon

The Managing Director met Prime Minister Salam; the IMF reaffirmed willingness to support development and implementation of a comprehensive reform agenda.
Recent reform progress: amendments to the Bank Resolution Law were approved on August 12th; the IMF views the law approved by Parliament as consistent with international standards.
The law was referred to the Constitutional Council by the president; the IMF will assess any changes resulting from that review for consistency with international standards and advise accordingly.
Preconditions for a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) include: entry into force of the Bank Resolution Law, an appropriate Financial Gap Law consistent with international standards, a 2027 budget and medium-term fiscal framework consistent with debt sustainability, and progress on public financial management and governance reforms.

Saudi Arabia

The IMF team is assessing the budget and that assessment is ongoing; no specific conclusion provided on the budget projection of a 12.8 percent rise in GDP cited by questioners.
Observations: Saudi Arabia has shown resilience despite disruptions to trade and oil exports, aided by diversified oil and logistics infrastructure, efforts to reroute trade, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, some fiscal spending support, and stable private consumption.

Egypt

August completions: Seventh Review of the EFF and Second Review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) were completed in August; about U.S. $1.8 billion was disbursed.
The final EFF review and the Third RSF review are envisaged in the fourth quarter of 2026 and together would make about U.S. $2.3 billion available to Egypt.
The EFF is set to expire on December 15th of 2026.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a key program focus: priorities include accelerating divestment, implementing the state-ownership policy, leveling the playing field between private and SOEs, strengthening SOE governance, and broader reforms to improve business climate and competition to support private sector-led job creation.

Venezuela

The Managing Director met Acting President Delcy Rodriguez on September 21st on the margins of the UN General Assembly; discussions covered economic situation, earthquake recovery, and reengagement.
A Staff team visited Caracas from late August to early September to discuss capacity development and data provision; earlier visits by the Western Hemisphere Department head also occurred.
Technical cooperation priorities under consideration include macroeconomic statistics, monetary operations, foreign exchange operations, treasury operations, and tax administration.
The Fund and Venezuelan authorities are considering a local IMF presence to facilitate technical cooperation; timing and modalities are under discussion.
The Venezuelan authorities have not requested an IMF program or IMF financing.

Ukraine

The First Review of the program was completed in July; an IMF team visited Ukraine in early September and the mission ended on September 2nd.
The Managing Director held bilateral meetings with President Zelensky and Finance Minister Marchenko; staff aim to bring a combined Second and Third Review to the Executive Board by December.
Completion is subject to securing sufficient and credible financing assurances to close a projected financing gap on terms compatible with debt sustainability.
The specific financing gap figures beyond 2026 were not provided; the size depends on war developments, reform implementation, economic outcomes, and donor support.
Questioners referenced a $32.6 billion shortfall identified by Ukraine; IMF staff continued discussions with Ukrainian authorities and partners to confirm needs and financing assurances.

Senegal

The Managing Director met President Faye on September 15th; the IMF reaffirmed support for restoring fiscal sustainability, advancing debt treatment, and fostering growth and job creation.
Senegal intends to pursue external debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework to address elevated debt vulnerabilities; authorities have begun bilateral creditor engagement and agreed to form an official creditor committee.
Under IMF good offices, the IMF will attend an October 6 meeting convened by Senegal to brief external creditors on Senegal's situation, reform program, and debt treatment.
Total return swaps (TRS) are treated as debt for the IMF debt sustainability analysis (DSA); where TRS creditors are non-residents, operations are classified as external debt in the DSA.
The IMF offered good offices to facilitate information sharing and creditor coordination; detailed debt restructuring negotiations remain between debtor and creditors.

Zambia

An IMF team was in Lusaka to continue discussions with authorities on a possible successor IMF-supported program, focusing on policies to safeguard fiscal and debt sustainability, strengthen reserve accumulation, and support inclusive, private sector-led growth.
A press release is expected at the end of the mission.