IMF RESEARCHER

Natalia Tamirisa is Assistant to the Director of the Research Department, where she contributes to assessments of countries' vulnerability to economic and financial crises. During her career at the IMF, she has worked on a broad range of topics in international economic policy and a diverse set of countries. Her research interests include the economics of international capital flows and financial crises. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Hawaii and M.S. in aerospace economics and management from the State University of Aerospace Technology (a.k.a. Moscow Aviation Institute).

Email: NTAMIRISA@imf.org

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia , Departmental Paper No. 18/01 , January 09, 2018

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 14/31 , February 12, 2014

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets , Working Paper No. 13/158 , July 03, 2013

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 13/56 , February 27, 2013

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/125 , June 01, 2011

Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 10/257 , November 01, 2010

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress , Working Paper No. 10/124 , May 01, 2010

Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity , Working Paper No. 09/231 , October 01, 2009

How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 09/204 , September 01, 2009

Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 09/147 , July 01, 2009

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe , Working Paper No. 08/219 , September 01, 2008

Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro , Working Paper No. 06/206 , September 01, 2006

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging , Working Paper No. 06/95 , April 01, 2006

Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions , Working Paper No. 06/51 , February 01, 2006

The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds , Working Paper No. 05/83 , April 01, 2005

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows , Occasional Paper No. 235 , September 30, 2004

Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia , Working Paper No. 04/3 , January 01, 2004

International Trade in Services: Implications for the Fund , Policy Discussion Paper No. 03/6 , December 01, 2003

The Missing Globalization Puzzle , Working Paper No. 02/171 , October 01, 2002

Malaysia : From Crisis to Recovery , Occasional Paper No. 207 , August 27, 2001

Africa's Trade Revisted , Working Paper No. 01/33 , March 01, 2001

Trade Policy in Financial Services , Working Paper No. 00/31 , February 01, 2000

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements , Working Paper No. 99/89 , July 01, 1999

Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls? , Working Paper No. 98/181 , December 01, 1998

Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade , Working Paper No. 98/81 , June 01, 1998

Other Published Materials

Anticipating the Next Crisis (with Atish R. Ghosh and Jonathan D. Ostry), Finance and Development, September 2009.

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis (with Charles Collyns), Box. 1.4, World Economic Outlook, April 2009.

How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Corporates? (with Dale Gray), Box. 1.2, World Economic Outlook, April 2009.

The Latest Bout of Financial Distress: How Does It Change the Global Outlook? (with Andreas Jobst), Box. 1.1, World Economic Outlook, October 2008.

Measuring Output Gaps (with Charles Collyns and Douglas Laxton), Box. 1.3, World Economic Outlook, October 2008.

Climate Change and the Global Economy (with Florence Jaumotte and others), World Economic Outlook, April 2008.

Climate Change and the Economy, Finance and Development, March 2008.

The Euro and the New Member States (with Douglas Laxton and others), Euro Area Policies--Selected Issues, Country Report 07/259, July 2007.

Credit Growth and Bank Soundness in the New Member States (with Deniz Igan), Country Report 06/414, November 2006.

Credit, Growth and Financial Stability (with Martin Cihak), Poland--Selected Issues, Country Report 06/392, 2006.

Monetary Policy Implications of Capital Account Volatility under Inflation-Targeting Regime (with Douglas Laxton and Philippe Karam), Czech Republic--Selected Issues, Country Report 05/275, 2005.

Macroeconomic Effects of Population Aging in the Czech Republic (with Hamid Faruqee), Czech Republic--Selected Issues, Country Report 05/275, 2005.

Indices of Exchange and Capital Controls and Relationship with Economic Development, in Exchange Arrangements and Currency Convertibility, R. Barry Johnston and Mark Swinburne (ed.), World Economic and Financial Surveys, 1999.

Phasing Exchange and Trade Liberalization, in Exchange Arrangements and Currency Convertibility, R. Barry Johnston and Mark Swinburne (ed.), World Economic and Financial Surveys, 1999.

Other Published Materials

Market Response to Crisis Policy Initiatives (with Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Jochen Andritzky, Andreas Jobst, and Sylwia Nowak), forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics.

Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets (with Sylwia Nowak, Jochen Andritzky, and Andreas Jobst), forthcoming in the Journal of Banking and Finance.

Housing, Credit and Real Activity Cycles: Characteristics and Comovement (with Deniz Igan, Alain Kabundi, Francisco Nadal De Simone, and Marcelo Pinheiro), 2011, Journal of Housing Economics, 20(3), September, 210-31.

In Search of a Smoking Gun: Macroeconomic Policies and the Crisis (with Hamid Faruqee and Alasdair Scott), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 25, Issue 4 (Winter), 2009, pp. 553-580.

The Macroeconomic Benefits and Costs of Adopting the Euro (with Philipp Karam, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 339-355, December 2008.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Deniz Igan), Contemporary Economic Studies, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 599-619, December 2008; reprinted in Macrofinancial Linkages:Trends, Crises, and Policies, edited by Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010.

Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions (with Simon Johnson, Kalpana Kochhar, and Todd Mitton), in Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, Sebastian Edwards (ed.), National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 2007.

The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of Declining Importance of Distance (with David Coe and Arvind Subramanian), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 54, No. 7, pp. 34-58, June 2007.

The Impact of Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds (with Jochen Andritzky and Geoffrey Bannister), Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 20-37, March 2007.

Do the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by Their Type? Evidence from Malaysia, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vo. 23, No. 2, pp. 137-159, August 2006.

Book Review: "Globalization and the Asia Pacific Economy," Kyung Tae Lee (ed.), ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 1, p. 95, April 2003.

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements, Journal of Financial Services and Research, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 47-66, 2003.

Is Africa Integrated in the Global Economy? (with Arvind Subramanian), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 352-372, 2003.

Trade Policy in Financial Services (with Piritta Sorsa and others), International Economic Policy Review, Vol. 2, p. 119, 2000.

Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 1, p. 69.

Trade Liberalization and Industry Protection in Russia during 1992-95, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Vol. 38, No. 1, June 1997.

Energy and Tourism in Hawaii (with Matthew Loke and others), Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 390-401, 1997.

Natalia Tamirisa is Assistant to the Director of the Research Department, where she contributes to assessments of countries' vulnerability to economic and financial crises. During her career at the IMF, she has worked on a broad range of topics in international economic policy and a diverse set of countries. Her research interests include the economics of international capital flows and financial crises. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Hawaii and M.S. in aerospace economics and management from the State University of Aerospace Technology (a.k.a. Moscow Aviation Institute).

Email: NTAMIRISA@imf.org

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia , Departmental Paper No. 18/01 , January 09, 2018

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 14/31 , February 12, 2014

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets , Working Paper No. 13/158 , July 03, 2013

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 13/56 , February 27, 2013

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/125 , June 01, 2011

Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 10/257 , November 01, 2010

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress , Working Paper No. 10/124 , May 01, 2010

Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity , Working Paper No. 09/231 , October 01, 2009

How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 09/204 , September 01, 2009

Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 09/147 , July 01, 2009

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe , Working Paper No. 08/219 , September 01, 2008

Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro , Working Paper No. 06/206 , September 01, 2006

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging , Working Paper No. 06/95 , April 01, 2006

Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions , Working Paper No. 06/51 , February 01, 2006

The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds , Working Paper No. 05/83 , April 01, 2005

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows , Occasional Paper No. 235 , September 30, 2004

Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia , Working Paper No. 04/3 , January 01, 2004

International Trade in Services: Implications for the Fund , Policy Discussion Paper No. 03/6 , December 01, 2003

The Missing Globalization Puzzle , Working Paper No. 02/171 , October 01, 2002

Malaysia : From Crisis to Recovery , Occasional Paper No. 207 , August 27, 2001

Africa's Trade Revisted , Working Paper No. 01/33 , March 01, 2001

Trade Policy in Financial Services , Working Paper No. 00/31 , February 01, 2000

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements , Working Paper No. 99/89 , July 01, 1999

Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls? , Working Paper No. 98/181 , December 01, 1998

Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade , Working Paper No. 98/81 , June 01, 1998

Other Published Materials

Anticipating the Next Crisis (with Atish R. Ghosh and Jonathan D. Ostry), Finance and Development, September 2009.

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis (with Charles Collyns), Box. 1.4, World Economic Outlook, April 2009.

How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Corporates? (with Dale Gray), Box. 1.2, World Economic Outlook, April 2009.

The Latest Bout of Financial Distress: How Does It Change the Global Outlook? (with Andreas Jobst), Box. 1.1, World Economic Outlook, October 2008.

Measuring Output Gaps (with Charles Collyns and Douglas Laxton), Box. 1.3, World Economic Outlook, October 2008.

Climate Change and the Global Economy (with Florence Jaumotte and others), World Economic Outlook, April 2008.

Climate Change and the Economy, Finance and Development, March 2008.

The Euro and the New Member States (with Douglas Laxton and others), Euro Area Policies--Selected Issues, Country Report 07/259, July 2007.

Credit Growth and Bank Soundness in the New Member States (with Deniz Igan), Country Report 06/414, November 2006.

Credit, Growth and Financial Stability (with Martin Cihak), Poland--Selected Issues, Country Report 06/392, 2006.

Monetary Policy Implications of Capital Account Volatility under Inflation-Targeting Regime (with Douglas Laxton and Philippe Karam), Czech Republic--Selected Issues, Country Report 05/275, 2005.

Macroeconomic Effects of Population Aging in the Czech Republic (with Hamid Faruqee), Czech Republic--Selected Issues, Country Report 05/275, 2005.

Indices of Exchange and Capital Controls and Relationship with Economic Development, in Exchange Arrangements and Currency Convertibility, R. Barry Johnston and Mark Swinburne (ed.), World Economic and Financial Surveys, 1999.

Phasing Exchange and Trade Liberalization, in Exchange Arrangements and Currency Convertibility, R. Barry Johnston and Mark Swinburne (ed.), World Economic and Financial Surveys, 1999.

Other Published Materials

Market Response to Crisis Policy Initiatives (with Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Jochen Andritzky, Andreas Jobst, and Sylwia Nowak), forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics.

Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets (with Sylwia Nowak, Jochen Andritzky, and Andreas Jobst), forthcoming in the Journal of Banking and Finance.

Housing, Credit and Real Activity Cycles: Characteristics and Comovement (with Deniz Igan, Alain Kabundi, Francisco Nadal De Simone, and Marcelo Pinheiro), 2011, Journal of Housing Economics, 20(3), September, 210-31.

In Search of a Smoking Gun: Macroeconomic Policies and the Crisis (with Hamid Faruqee and Alasdair Scott), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 25, Issue 4 (Winter), 2009, pp. 553-580.

The Macroeconomic Benefits and Costs of Adopting the Euro (with Philipp Karam, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 339-355, December 2008.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Deniz Igan), Contemporary Economic Studies, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 599-619, December 2008; reprinted in Macrofinancial Linkages:Trends, Crises, and Policies, edited by Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010.

Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions (with Simon Johnson, Kalpana Kochhar, and Todd Mitton), in Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, Sebastian Edwards (ed.), National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 2007.

The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of Declining Importance of Distance (with David Coe and Arvind Subramanian), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 54, No. 7, pp. 34-58, June 2007.

The Impact of Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds (with Jochen Andritzky and Geoffrey Bannister), Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 20-37, March 2007.

Do the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by Their Type? Evidence from Malaysia, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vo. 23, No. 2, pp. 137-159, August 2006.

Book Review: "Globalization and the Asia Pacific Economy," Kyung Tae Lee (ed.), ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 1, p. 95, April 2003.

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements, Journal of Financial Services and Research, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 47-66, 2003.

Is Africa Integrated in the Global Economy? (with Arvind Subramanian), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 352-372, 2003.

Trade Policy in Financial Services (with Piritta Sorsa and others), International Economic Policy Review, Vol. 2, p. 119, 2000.

Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 1, p. 69.

Trade Liberalization and Industry Protection in Russia during 1992-95, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Vol. 38, No. 1, June 1997.

Energy and Tourism in Hawaii (with Matthew Loke and others), Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 390-401, 1997.