Research at the IMF: Helge Berger

Helge Berger

Last Updated: April 25, 2023

Background

Helge Berger is a Deputy Director in the IMF's European Department. He is also an adjunct professor of monetary economics at Free University of Berlin. He was educated in Munich, Germany, where he received his Ph.D. and the venia legendi for economics. Previously, he taught at Princeton University as a John Foster Dulles Visiting Lecturer, helped to coordinate the Munich-based CESifo network as its research director, and served as full professor (tenured) at Free University Berlin. At the IMF he has previously worked in the Research and Asia and Pacific Departments.

Fluent In: German.

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers:

A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation , June 30, 2023

Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area , February 21, 2018

The Refugee Surge in Europe : Economic Challenges , Staff Discussion Notes No. 16/2 , January 20, 2016

Steady as She Goes—Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts” , Working Paper No. 15/233 , November 09, 2015

Jobs and Growth , April 10, 2014

Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth , Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/7 , September 24, 2013

Money as Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest , Working Paper No. 12/6 , January 01, 2012

The Euro’s Effect on Trade Imbalances , Working Paper No. 10/226 , October 01, 2010

Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area? , Working Paper No. 09/17 , January 01, 2009

The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited , Working Paper No. 08/171 , July 01, 2008

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation , Working Paper No. 08/166 , July 01, 2008

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs , Working Paper No. 08/53 , March 01, 2008

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs , Working Paper No. 08/76 , March 01, 2008

Central Bank Boards Around the World: Why Does Membership Size Differ? , Working Paper No. 06/281 , December 01, 2006

Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is (Still) a Matter of Geography , Working Paper No. 06/41 , February 01, 2006

Labor and Product Market Deregulation: Partial, Sequential, or Simultaneous Reform? , Working Paper No. 05/227 , December 01, 2005

Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor , Working Paper No. 04/62 , April 01, 2004

The ECB and Euro-Area Enlargement , Working Paper No. 02/175 , October 01, 2002

Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions , Working Paper No. 02/44 , March 01, 2002

Other Published Materials

Jobs and Growth: Supporting the European Recovery (with Martin Schindler, Bas Bakker, and Antonio Spilimbergo) (ed.), Washington: IMF, 2014.

Non-IMF Publications

Books

The European Central Bank at Ten (with Jakob de Haan, eds.), Berlin: Springer, 2010.

Global Economic Imbalances: Prospects and Remedies (with Sarantis Kalyvitis and Thomas Moutos, eds.), Review of International Economics, 16(3), special section, 2008, p. 478-610.

Currency Boards in Retrospect and Prospect (with Holger Wolf, Atish Gosh and Anne-Marie Gulde), CESifo Book Series, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008.

Designing the New European Union (with Thomas Moutos, eds.), Oxford: Elsevier, 2006.

Managing European Union Enlargement (with Thomas Moutos, eds.), Cambrigde MA: The MIT Press, 2004.

Konjunkturpolitik im Wirtschaftswunder: Handlungsspielräume und Verhaltensmuster von Bundesbank und Regierung in den 1950er Jahren (Stabilization Policy During the Wirtschaftswunder: Behavioural Patterns of the Bundesbank and Scope of Action of the Government), Tübingen: J.C. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), 1997.

Einführung in die Mikrooökonomie (Introduction into Microeconomics) (with Edwin von Böventer et al.), München: Oldenbourg, 1997 (9th edition).

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation" (with Sune Karlsson and Pär Österholm), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 70, p. 479-496, 2023.

“Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area“ (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and Maury Obstfeld), IMF Economic Review, 67, 2019, p. 657-683.

“Wearing Corset, Losing Shape: The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances“ (with Volker Nitsch), Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(1), 2014, p. 136-155.

“Bilateral Imbalances in Europe” (with Volker Nitsch), CESifo Economic Studies, 59(3), 2013, p. 559-575.

"The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation." (with Emil Stavrev), Journal of Applied Economics, 44(31), 2012, p. 4055-4072.

"How German Labor Courts Decide –an Econometric Case Study–" (with Michael Neugart), German Economic Review, 13(1), 2012, p. 56-70.

"Labor Courts, Nomination Bias, and Unemployment in Germany" (with Michael Neugart), European Journal of Political Economy, 27(4), 2011, p. 659-673.

"Geography, Skills or Both: What Explains Fed Watchers' Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 2011, p. 420-437.

"Too Many Cooks? Committees in Monetary Policy" (with Volker Nitsch), Southern Economic Journal, 78(2), 2011, p. 452-472.

"Monetary Policy in the Media" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 43(4), 2011, p. 689-709.

''Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication'' (with Jakob de Haan and Jan-Egbert Sturm), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 16(1), 2011, p. 16-31.

"Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs." (with Pär Österholm), The Economic Record, Vol. 87, No. 276, March 2011, p. 45-66.

"Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence From Bayesian VARs." (with Pär Österholm), CESifo Journal, 16(1), 2011, 16-31.

"Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?" (with Thomas Harjes), International Finance, 12(1), 2009, p.33-55.

"Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is A Matter of Geography" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), European Economic Review 53, 2009, p. 1028-1041.

"Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?" (with Pär Österholm), Economic Letters, 102(3), 2009, p. 143-146.

"Central Bank Boards Around the World: Why does Membership Size Differ?" (with Volker Nitsch and Tonny Lybeck), European Journal of Political Economy, 24(4), 2008, p. 817-832.

"Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective" (with Volker Nitsch), Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(8), 2008, p. 1244-1260.

"Does Financial Integration Make Banks Act More Prudential? Regulation, Foreign Owned Banks and the Lender-Of-Last-Resort" (with Carsten Hefeker), International Economics and Economic Policy, 4(4), 2008, p. 371-393.

"The Employment Effects of Labor and Product Markets Deregulation and Their Implications for Structural Reform" (with Stephan Danninger), IMF Staff Papers, 54(3), 2007, p. 591-619.

"How Should Large and Small Countries Be Represented in a Currency Union?" (with Till Müller, Public Choice, 132, 2007. p. 471-484.

"Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor?" (with Goerge Kopits and István Székely), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 54(1), 2007, p. 116-135.

"Optimal Central Bank Design: Benchmarks for the ECB", The Review of International Organizations, 1(3), 2006, p. 207-235.

"One Country, One Vote? Labor Market Structure and Voting Rights in the ECB" (with Carsten Hefeker), Journal of Economic Integration, 20(4), 2005, p. 627-687.

"Does Conservatism Matter? A Times Series Approach to Central Banking" (with Ulrich Woitek), The Economic Journal , 115, July 2005. p.745-766.

"Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis" (with Jan-Egbert Sturm and Jakob de Haan), Economics and Politics, 17(5), 2005, p. 117-213.

"Why Did the Stability and Growth Pact Fail?" (with Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen), International Finance, 7(2), 2004, p. 235-260.

"Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions" (with Carsten Hefeker and Ronnie Schoeb), IMF Staff Papers, 51(3), 2004, p. 585-605.

"Are Small Countries too Powerful Within the ECB?" (with Jakob de Haan), Atlantic Economic Journal, 30(3), 2002. p. 1-20.

"How to Reduce Inflation: an Independent Central Bank or a Currency Board? The Experience of the Baltic Countries" (with Jakob de Haan and Erik van Fraassen), Emerging Markets Review, 2(3), 2001, p. 218-243.

"Factor Price Equalization? The Cointegration Approach Revisited" (with Frank Westermann), Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 137(3), 2001, p. 525-536.

"To Peg or Not to Peg? A Simple Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Small Economies" (with Henrik Jensen and Guttorm Schjelderup), Economic Letters, 73(2), 2001, p. 161-167.

"Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848" (with Mark Spoerer), Journal of Economic History, 61(2), 2001, p. 293-326.

"The German Political Business Cycle: Money Demand Rather Than Monetary Policy" (with Ulrich Woitek), European Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 2001, p. 609-631.

"Central Bank Independence: Update on Theory and Evidence" (with Sylvester Eijfinger and Jakob de Haan), Journal of Economic Surveys, 15(1), 2001, p. 3-40.

"News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government" (with Marcel Thum), German Economic Review, 1(4), 2000, p. 465-493.

"A State within a State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank" (with Jakob de Haan), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 46(1), 1999, p. 17-39.

"Regulation in Germany: Some Stylized Facts About Its Time Path, Causes and Consequences", Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, 118(2), 1998, p.185-220.

"The Bundesbank's Path to Independence. Evidence from the 1950's", Public Choice, 93, 1997, p. 427-453.

"Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany" (with Ulrich Woitek), Public Choice, 91(2), 1997, p. 179-197.

"How Opportunistic are Partisan German Central Bankers: Evidence on the Vaubel Hypothesis" (with Ulrich Woitek), European Journal of Political Economy, 13(4), 1997, p. 807-822.

"Die aktuelle Debatte um Zentralbankunabhängigkeit: Theoretische und empirische Fragen", Zeitschrift für Unternehmensgeschichte, 41(1), 1997, p. 89-111.

"Die Rekonstruktion der Arbeitsteilung in Europa, Eine neue Sicht des Marshallplans in Deutschland 1947-1951" (with Albrecht Ritschl), Vierteljahreshefte für Zeitgeschichte, 3, 1995, p. 473-519.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

"Measuring European Economic and International Integration" (with Volker Nitsch), Harald Badinger and Volker Nitsch (eds.), Routledge Handbook of the Economics of European Integration, forthcoming.

"Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective" (with Volker Nitsch), Mark P. Taylor & Meher Manzur (eds.), Recent Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 2013 (Reprint).

"On the Persistence of Trade Imbalances" (with Volker Nitsch), in: Yin-Wong Cheung and Frank Westermann (eds.), Global Interdependence, Decoupling, and Recoupling, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2013, p. 213-232.

“Extreme News Make News“ (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), in: Pierre Siklos and Jan-Egbert Sturm (eds.), Central bank Communications, Decision Making, and Governance, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2013, p. 113-122.

”Die Logik der Währungsunion,“ in: Kai Konrad, Ronnie Schöb, and Alfons Weichenrieder (eds.), Die Zukunft des Wohlfahrtsstaats (Festschrift für Hans-Werner Sinn), 2013, Frankfurt: Campus, p. 57-38.

"Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade" (with Volker Nitsch), in: Claudia Costa-Storti and Paul de Grauwe (eds.), Illicit Trade and the Global Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2012, 49-72.

"Inflexibilities and Trade Imbalances: Evidence from Europe" (with Volker Nitsch), in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2011, 141-153.

"The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited" (with Thomas Harjes and Emil Stavrev), in: Helge Berger and Jakob de Haan (eds.), The European Central Bank At Ten, Berlin: Springer, 2010, 33-86.

"Designing Europe - A Survey of Tasks Ahead" (with Thomas Moutos), in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Designing the New European Union, Oxford: Elsevier, 2006, p. 3-29.

"Is the ECB Too Decentralized?" (with Jakob de Haan and Robert Inklaar), in: Hans-Werner Sinn, Mika Widgren and Marko Köthenburger (eds.), European Monetary Integration, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 71-97.

"Restructuring the ECB" (with Jakob de Haan and Robert Inklaar), in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Managing European Union Enlargement, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 29-66.

"Introduction" (with Thomas Moutos) in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Managing EU Enlargement, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 1-10.

"How To Tie Your Hands: Currency Board Versus Independent Central Banks" (with Jakob de Haan), in: Andy Mullineux and Victor Murinde (eds.), Handbook of International Banking, Cheltenhang: Edward Elgar, 2003, p. 156-172.

"La Bank deutscher Länder et le 'miracle économique' allemand, la politique monétaire de l'Allemagne dans les années 1950 ("The Bank deutscher Länder and the ""Wirtschaftswunder": German Monetary Policy in the 1950s"), Banque de France (ed.), Politiques et practiques des banques d'émission en Europe (XVIIième-XXième siècle), Paris: Banque de France, 2003, p- 623-655.

"Central Bank Indepence: An Update of Theory and Evidence" (with Sylvester Eijffinger and Jakob de Haan), in: Stuart Sayer (ed.), Issues in New Political Economy, Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 2001, p. 173-210.

"The Bundesbank's Reaction to Policy Conflicts" (with Friedrich Schneider), in: Jakob de Haan (ed.), 50 Years of Bundesbank: Lessons for the ECB, London: Routledge, 2000, p. 43-66.

"Nicht Ideen, sondern Hunger? Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Vormärz und Revolution 1848 in Deutschland und Europa" (with Mark Spoerer), in: Dieter Langewiesche (ed.), Demokratiebewegung und Revolution 1847 bis 1849: Internationale Aspekte und Verbindungen, Karlsruhe: Braun, 1998, p. 140-184.

"Germany and the Political Economy of the Marshall Plan, 1947-52: A Re-Revisionist View" (with Albrecht Ritschl), in: Barry Eichengreen (ed.), Europe's Post-War Recovery, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. p. 199-245.

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