Selected Issues Papers

This paper quantifies Guinea-Bissau’s tax potential using a stochastic frontier model and investigates the underlying sources of untapped revenue. Beyond benchmarking performance against structural peers, it tackles the complex drivers of low revenue mobilization, including high informality, administrative inefficiencies, a fragmented tax system, and weak enforcement. The analysis distinguishes between structural constraints and policy or institutional gaps, offering a nuanced diagnosis of where reforms can yield the greatest returns. It finds that Guinea-Bissau has significant scope to increase domestic revenue by broadening the tax base, enhancing compliance, and strengthening core tax functions. Targeted, sequenced reforms in administration and policy could help close the tax gap and support more sustainable, resilient public finances.