Working Papers
1991
July 1, 1991
The Growth of Indian Public Debt: Dimensions of the Problem and Corrective Measures
Description: This paper traces the causes of the rapid growth of India’s public debt, with special reference to internal debt. It then demonstrates that the growth of debt would become unsustainable by the end of the 1990s if the present trends continue. It develops a methodology to iterate the path of growth of debt to discover the sustainable level of the primary deficit. Finally, it suggests concrete measures to bring down the primary deficit.
July 1, 1991
Economic Growth in Latin America
Description: This paper studies growth determinants in 12 Latin American countries during the period 1950-85. In a simple growth accounting framework, the share of labor in income is found to be lower in the sample group than in developed countries, while factor productivity growth accounts for a larger proportion of growth in the fastest growing countries in the sample. Using panel data, macroeconomic stability is found to play, in addition to investment (physical and human), a crucial role in growth. To a lesser extent, growth is negatively correlated with government consumption and political instability. The terms of trade appear to have no significant effect on growth.
July 1, 1991
Inflation Stabilization and Economic Transformation in Poland: The First Year
Description: This paper reviews the experience of 1990, the first year of Poland’s program of stabilization and reform. The background is described, including previous reform efforts and the crisis of the late 1980s. Then the various elements of the program are discussed, including fiscal adjustment, wage controls, the possibility of an initial liquidity overhang, the exchange rate anchor, and structural reforms. The initial results of the program are assessed, and alternative explanations of the decline in output are considered.
July 1, 1991
Key Questions in Considering a Value-Added Tax for Central and Eastern European Countries
Description: In the course of introducing a market-oriented tax system, most Central and Eastern European countries are actively considering the merits of a value-added tax (VAT). This paper examines a wide range of social, economic, structural, and administrative issues that are pertinent to the introduction of a VAT. These issues have regard to the burden distribution of the VAT, its effect on the price level and economic growth, as well as the coverage of the tax, the definition of the base, and the choice of the rate structure. Various legal and administrative aspects are also reviewed. The paper draws on the experience with value-added taxation of the member states of the European Community (EC) and other countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
July 1, 1991
Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?
Description: This paper examines the issue of whether the money supply can serve as a nominal anchor for the domestic price level under real exchange rate targeting. When capital controls are perfect so that there is complete separation between official and unofficial markets for foreign exchange, the domestic inflation rate can be stabilized, but only at the expense of a widening gap between official and parallel market exchange rates. When cross - transactions between the two markets are permitted, the steady state of the model is identical to that of a model without capital controls and, hence, the money supply cannot serve as a nominal anchor for the price level in the long run. If capital controls are nevertheless maintained temporarily, and are known to be temporary, targeting the money supply fails to stabilize the rate of inflation even in the short run.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, March 1992.
July 1, 1991
Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciation As Causes of Inflation in African Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Description: This paper examines the relative importance of monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation as causes of inflation in a sample of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. Causality tests and impulse response functions derived from vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggest that both monetary expansion and exchange rate adjustments cause inflation in a number of these countries. However, the failure of the tests to attribute the bulk of the variance in inflation in most of the countries to either variable suggests either a problem with the statistical technique or that some other factor--perhaps structural bottlenecks or a measure of overall macroeconomic policy stance incorporating both monetary and exchange rate policy--may be even more important as a determinant of inflation in African countries.
July 1, 1991
Obstacles to Transforming Centrally-Planned Economies: The Role of Capital Markets
Description: This paper identifies obstacles hindering the transformation of centrally-planned economies (CPEs) into well-functioning market economies. The obstacles identified relate to (i) anticipatory dynamics, (ii) monetary overhang and the budget, and (iii) underdeveloped credit markets. It is demonstrated that these obstacles inhibit the effectiveness of price reform, monetary and credit policies, and trade liberalization. The analysis focuses on various ways to remove the obstacles. In this regard, a special examination is made of the implications of “cleaning” the balance sheets of enterprises and banks from nonperforming loans, as well as ways to enhance credibility. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of sequencing, “safety nets,” and their associated obstacles.
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1991
June 1, 1991
Structural Funds and the 1992 Program in the European Community
Description: Equity and efficiency justifications are found for the Community’s Structural Funds which are discovered to be carefully targeted at depressed regions, albeit with some horizontal inequities. If Fund transfers displace national assistance, then they may be misallocated by being tied to regional indicators. The recent doubling in size enhances the Funds’ ability to assist losers from the creation of a single European market in 1992. However, they fall short of constituting a safety net since they provide little automatic assistance to regions suffering negative shocks. Compensation of losers from the 1992 program would require an overhaul of the present allocation system, if not a further increase in scale.
Notes: Examines the rationale and operations of the Structural Funds of the European Community (EC).
June 1, 1991
Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe
Description: Even modest investment rates may achieve satisfactory rates of growth in the reforming economies of Eastern Europe because their relative capital scarcity implies high rates of productivity for capital. The most serious obstacle to private investment is uncertainty about the reform process, which can potentially rule out all but the most profitable projects. This problem sharply increases the payoff from accelerating the structural reform process. Regarding savings, critical aspects are the changes in methods of financing resulting from economic reform, and the availability of foreign savings, both in the form of loans and foreign direct investment.