Working Papers
1992
June 1, 1992
The Macroeconomic Effects of Counterpart Funds and the Underlying Foreign Aid
Description: Counterpart funds generated through foreign currency or commodity aid have again become an issue of interest, in view of the substantial buildup of these funds. Contrary to the usual approach a model is developed in this paper, which takes account of the budgetary impact, supply-side and money demand effects of counterpart funds and the underlying foreign aid. This model is used to show that counterpart funds need not have any economic impact if their creation, use, and effects are adequately monitored and understood, both by donors and by the authorities in the recipient country. The policy rules that ensure an inflation- and foreign reserves-neutral result from expected and unexpected foreign aid are derived and contrasted with a policy rule regarding unexpected foreign aid that is sometimes observed in IMF programs. A feasible alternative is developed. Various real world complications are shown not to alter the conclusions.
June 1, 1992
Liberalization of the Capital Account: Experiences and Issues
Description: This paper reviews the experience with capital controls in industrial and developing countries, considers the policy issues raised when the effectiveness of capital controls diminishes, examines the medium-term benefits and costs of an open capital account, and analyzes the policy measures that could help sustain capital account convertibility. As the effectiveness of capital controls eroded more rapidly in the 1980s than in earlier periods, new constraints were placed on the formulation of stabilization and structural reform programs. However, experience suggests that certain macroeconomic, financial, and risk management policies would allow countries to attain the benefits of capital account convertibility and reduce the financial risks created by an open capital account.
June 1, 1992
Bank Risk and the Declining Franchise Value of the Banking Systems in the United States and Japan
Description: This paper associates both the increase in risk taken by wholesale banks in the United States and the decline in earnings at wholesale banks in Japan with a reduction in the franchise value of wholesale banking. In contrast with the conventional view that relates the franchise value of banking to informational advantages over other lenders, this paper argues that banks’ franchise value originates in their provision of liquidity and payments services to their customers. Therefore, the decline in corporate demand for bank liquidity is identified as a major factor explaining the fall of the franchise value. The paper also analyzes recent proposals for banking reform and assesses their relevance for dealing with the problems of wholesale banks.
June 1, 1992
Market Discipline
Description: Under what circumstances can market forces prevent unsustainable borrowing? Effective market discipline requires that capital markets be open, that; information on the borrower’s existing liabilities be readily available, that no bailout be anticipated, and that the borrower respond to market signals. This paper explores the implications of these conditions, and reviews some relevant empirical evidence.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 1993.
June 1, 1992
Specification of Policy Rules and Performance Measures in Multicountry Simulation Studies
Description: Much recent analysis of international monetary and fiscal policy issues, such as the choice of an exchange-rate regime or the design of a policy coordination scheme, has been conducted by stochastic simulations with multicountry econometric models. In these studies, it has become standard practice to consider alternative policy rules of a particular form that calls for departures of a policy instrument, from some “baseline” reference path, that are proportional to deviations of a specified target variable from its own baseline path. The present paper argues, however, that this standard rule form is seriously defective for evaluating such issues because the implied rules (1) often fail to be operational and (2) have associated performance measures that can be misleading in important cases. An example is presented that concerns the international “assignment problem” of optimally pairing instruments with policy objectives.
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