Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1992
July 1, 1992
Endogenous Creditor Seniority and External Debt Values
Description: A new aggregation scheme used to measure the sources of fiscal financing of indebted countries suggests that there was a fundamental improvement in the seniority of domestic debt at the expense of foreign bank debt during the late 1980s. We argue that this was the revenue maximizing response of governments to internal and external capital flight that drained the domestic financial “tax base” subject to indirect taxation. Empirical analysis indicates that the profile of the sources of fiscal financing influenced external debt values. The econometric analysis also implies that previous studies have neglected an important reason for the decline in loan values from 1985 to 1989: the increase in international interest rates.
Notes: Empirical analysis of both the internal and external debt of 17 developing countries. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 2, June 1993.
July 1, 1992
Using An EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of EMU
Description: This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.
July 1, 1992
Current Account Deficits, External Liabilities and Economic Policy
Description: This paper assesses the policy significance of foreign liabilities and the current account deficits that give rise to them. Current account imbalances are shown to have some capacity to indicate difficulties elsewhere in the economy, but are imperfect indicators and subject to potential misinterpretation. The paper concludes that successful pursuit of internal balance could be an important factor in stabilizing current account balances, but, beyond that, there seems no good reason for using macroeconomic policy to target the current account as such. However, there may be grounds for microeconomic action to remedy specifically identified problems.
July 1, 1992
The Sub-Saharan African Debt Problem: An Update
Description: This paper provides updated information on the external debt problem of sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1980 and 1990 the region’s external debt more than tripled, to US$171 billion, while debt service payments and rescheduling rose by more than 150 percent to US$20 billion. In addition, the region continues to qualify as severely debt-distressed. During the last few years the region has benefitted from several new debt initiatives, including a substantial increase in debt cancellation by bilateral creditors and the general application of Toronto terms for debt rescheduling. There are also proposals for further debt assistance, including more liberal rescheduling terms, broader debt forgiveness, and consolidating debt relief and aid generation activities.
July 1, 1992
Exchange Rates, Country Preferences, and Gold
Description: This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence, that gold price movements, under the maintained hypothesis, should have explanatory power with respect to exchange rate movements over and above the effects of monetary shocks. The paper applies multivariate vector autoregression and cointegration modeling techniques to test for the short-and long-run influence of gold prices on exchange rates conditional on other monetary and real macroeconomic variables, and applies the resulting error correction exchange rate equation to out-of-sample forecasting exercises.
July 1, 1992
Independent Currency Authorities: An Analytic Primer
Description: This paper provides an analytic overview of independent currency authorities (ICAs), sometimes called currency boards. ICAs issue and redeem domestic currency against an exchange standard on demand and back such operations through a 100 percent marginal foreign reserve cover. They also impose significant constraints on the banking system and the budget of the country that operates them. When supporting institutions have been put in place, ICAs appear to have promoted price stability, foreign trade, saving, and investment.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 1993.
July 1, 1992
Alternative Forms of Mineral Taxation, Market Failure and the Environment
Description: This paper examines the environmental effects of mineral taxes in a framework that recognizes the importance of rates and cumulative externalities and proposes an appropriate corrective tax. It concludes that mineral resources taxation should combine neutral taxes with a dynamic Pigovian type tax proposed in the paper. Such a tax resembles a specific tax plus an element that depends on the amount of remaining reserves. This resemblance means that, in practice, specific taxes may act as proxies for environmental taxes. The paper also points at complementarities and tradeoffs between economic and environmental concerns that could arise in reforming mineral taxes.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 1993.