Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1993
September 1, 1993
The Russian Federation in Transition: External Developments
Description: This paper discusses Russia’s balance of payments developments in recent years: the initial macroeconomic imbalances and systemic shocks which set the stage for the critical balance of payments difficulties Russia faced in the early 1990s; the lessons from the early phases of Russia’s economic reforms; the choices faced by the Russian Government and the international community in supporting the government’s reform efforts; and the external debt situation. This analysis also points to external adjustment issues which Russia will face in the period ahead, including the potential for an early reversal of the export decline and the nature of external financing and debt problems.
September 1, 1993
An Extended Scenario and Adjustment Model for Developing Countries
Description: This paper discusses three important extensions to the developing country scenario and adjustment model used in the World Economic Outlook exercises. First, the model is augmented to include fiscal and monetary sectors and now explicitly captures links among government policy, investment, output and inflation. Second, the external sector is modified to allow domestic demand factors to influence imports, as well as allowing flexibility in the financing of imports. Third, the model system is extended to the group of net-creditor countries, and for the oil exporters within this group, oil exports are modeled separately. The revised model is estimated for each of the 95 developing countries and parameter estimates for each of the main equations are presented. The paper also reports the results of four simulation exercises to illustrate how the new model system may be used to quantify the effects of changes in domestic policies and in the external environment.
September 1, 1993
Credit Markets and Stagnation in an Endogenous Growth Model
Description: This paper studies the effects that the inability of individuals to borrow against future income has on economic growth. The model assumes that human capital, which is accumulated through education, is the only factor of production. It is shown that liquidity constraints reduce growth. Further, in the presence of externalities that may induce two equilibria, it is shown that liquidity constraints not only reduce the rate of growth in the high-growth equilibrium, but can also make the low-growth equilibrium more likely to occur.
September 1, 1993
Economic Trends in Africa: The Economic Performance of Sub-Saharan African Countries
Description: This paper surveys recent economic developments in countries in the African Department. In the aggregate, output growth continues to be sluggish, and it is expected that half of the countries will experience a declining income per capita in 1993. However, structural adjustment is making fast progress, especially as regards the liberalization of exchange and credit markets. This bodes well for an eventual improvement in economic performance.
Notes: Surveys recent economic developments in countries in the African Department.
August 1, 1993
Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Description: It is often argued that the parallel market premium is a useful indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The empirical evidence does not, however, suggest the existence of a robust correlation between these two endogenous variables that is independent of the nature of economic shocks and various structural relationships in the economy. This paper presents an analytical investigation of the reliability of the parallel market premium as an indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in the context of a fully optimizing model of a developing country. The analysis suggests that one should exercise caution in drawing inferences about the sign and magnitude of real exchange rate misalignment from the parallel market premium.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, March 1994.
August 1, 1993
Alternative Exchange Rate Strategies and Fiscal Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal performance in 28 sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-91 period with movements in the exchange rates, the terms of trade, and other macroeconomic aggregates. It finds that the tax base in most of these countries is heavily dependent on imports and import substitutes. Consequently, an overvaluation of the exchange rate in countries which adopted a fixed exchange rate strategy undermines the tax base and results in a widening of the fiscal deficit when the purpose of the strategy is to restore the real exchange rate to its equilibrium through fiscal contraction. Those countries which pursued a variable exchange rate strategy failed in attaining price stability, but exchange rate adjustment was critical in contributing to other macroeconomic objectives, particularly fiscal balance, competitiveness, and growth.
Notes: Study based on 28 sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-91 period. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, March 1994.