Working Papers
1994
June 1, 1994
Military Expenditure and Arms Trade: Alternative Data Sources
Description: Analysis of the economic impact of military expenditures and arms trade is frequently hampered by the limited amount of transparent, comprehensive data. Country-specific information can be supplemented, however, by data from multicountry statistical sources. This paper describes seven publications which provide multicountry statistics on military expenditure and trade--the information each source conveys, as well as the differences in coverage and definition--to assist the analyst in understanding how to use this data. Comparisons of the data reported by the various sources reveal numerous, significant differences, particularly in data on military expenditures.
June 1, 1994
Exchange Rate Determinants in Russia: 1992-1993
Description: This paper examines the evolution of the exchange rate of the ruble vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from exchange rate unification, in July 1992, to the end of 1993. The expected and actual paths of the exchange rate are related to the exchange and trade regime and to the stance of financial and exchange rate policies. An econometric analysis based on weekly data is offered, which suggests that monetary factors have a significant impact on the short run behavior of the exchange rate.
June 1, 1994
Financial Markets and Inflation Under Imperfect Information
Description: This paper studies the effect of inflation on the operation of financial markets, and shows how the ability of financial intermediaries to distinguish among heterogenous firms is reduced as inflation rises. This point is illustrated by presenting a simple model where inflation affects firms’ productivity. In particular, productivity differentials narrow as inflation increases. This effect creates incentives for risky and less productive firms to behave as high productivity firms. At high rates of inflation this may result in financial intermediaries being unable to differentiate among customers.
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1994
May 1, 1994
Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?
Description: We develop a two-country, balanced-growth intertemporal general equilibrium model to examine two predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model, namely that (i) productivity differentials determine the domestic relative price of nontradables and (ii) deviations from purchasing power parity reflect differences in the relative price of nontradables. In our model, the equilibrium relative price of nontradables along the long-run balanced-growth path is determined by the ratio of the marginal products of labor in the tradable and nontradable sectors. The empirical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson predictions is examined using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract long-run components from a panel database for fourteen OECD countries. The evidence indicates that labor productivity differentials do explain long-run, cross-country differences in relative prices. The predicted relative prices, however, are of little help in explaining long-run deviations from purchasing power parity.
May 1, 1994
Supply Pressure and the Export-Import Performance in the Japan-U.S. Bilateral Trade
Description: The paper examines the effects of the supply pressure of the exports in the Japan-U.S. bilateral trade. A simultaneous equation approach with a Almon lag structure is adopted. Two factors of supply pressure, i.e., full-employment capacity and inventory are specified, and positively-sloped export supply functions with these two shift factors are successfully estimated. While capacity is positively correlated with exports, the inventory is often negatively correlated. It is also shown that export supply pressure is much stronger in Japan’s exports than in the U.S. exports, and that supply pressure often affects exports with a lag structure spreading over twelve quarters.