Working Papers
1994
October 1, 1994
Central Banking in Central and Eastern Europe: Lessons From the Interwar Years' Experience
Description: This paper examines the philosophies which inspired the institution of central banking in Central and Eastern Europe in the interwar years. Influenced by the Financial Section of the League of Nations, the new central banks adopted laws which prohibited or severely restricted the financing of government fiscal debt. They were encouraged to centralize their payments systems and manage exchange rates to keep control of the money supply and achieve monetary stability. Before long they were forced to adopt further provisions in the area of banking supervision to regulate commercial banks. This paper considers the particular cases of Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland.
October 1, 1994
Noise Trading, Transaction Costs, and the Relationship of Stock Returns and Trading Volume
Description: The relationship of stock returns and trading volume is the focus of much recent interest. I examine an economic model of a rational trader who operates in a market with transactions costs and noise trading. The level of trading affects the rational trader’s marginal cost of transacting; as a result, trading volume is a source of risk. This engenders an equilibrium relationship between returns and volume. The model also provides a simple way to scrutinize this relationship empirically. Empirical evidence supports the implications of the model.
October 1, 1994
Public Education Expenditure and Other Determinants of Private Investment in the Caribbean
Description: This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of private investment in the Caribbean region, using data for the 1977-91 time period. Drawing on the endogenous growth literature, a model is developed to capture the impact of public education expenditure on private sector capital formation. The implications of this model are tested in the context of an econometric model assessing the impact of education and other variables on the share of private investment in GDP. The empirical results reveal that public education outlays, as well as economic growth, have a significant effect on private capital formation. Public investment has a negative effect on private investment, while real interest rates and external debt burdens are found to have no statistically significant impact on private investment.
October 1, 1994
Political Business Cycles and Expenditure Policies in Developing Countries
Description: The paper studies empirically fiscal policies around elections in 35 developing countries. It finds that governments try to improve their reelection prospects with the help of expansionary expenditure policies. Rising fiscal deficits before elections are followed by fiscal consolidation afterwards. These cycles can be found particularly in countries which are less trade-oriented or which pursue fixed exchange rate policies. Certain IMF-supported programs (SAF/ESAF and EFF arrangements) contribute to fiscal stabilization, but they do not appear to affect the incidence of fiscal cycles. The paper concludes that policy advice and macroeconomic projections should not overlook election constraints, and political feasibility of reforms should be strengthened particularly before elections.
October 1, 1994
Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America: From Banking Crisis Resolution to Current Policy Challenges
Description: This paper has two objectives: first, by reviewing the recent experience of five Latin American countries with the restructuring of their financial sectors, it derives lessons regarding the most effective ways to resolve banking difficulties in developing countries. Second, the paper analyzes current policy challenges associated with the health of financial systems in Latin America, including: (a) designing policies to respond to the recent large inflows of capital that maintain long-run macroeconomic stability and healthy financial systems; and (b) evaluating the impact of capital markets competition on the soundness of banking systems.
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