Working Papers
1994
November 1, 1994
Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications
Description: This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995.
November 1, 1994
On the Dynamics of Economic Growth
Description: This paper examines the dynamics of economic growth. First, it demonstrates that the standard neoclassical growth model with constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not consistent with the patterns of development we observe in the real world, once we consider the initial conditions. Second, it examines an alternative growth model, which is consistent with endogenously determined initial conditions and also generates dynamics that are in accord with the historical patterns of growth rates, capital flows, savings rates and labor supply. The alternative model is a generalized version of the neoclassical growth model, with increasing rates of intertemporal substitution due to a Stone-Geary type of utility.
November 1, 1994
Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries
Description: Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.
November 1, 1994
Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation
Description: The household saving ratio in France has undergone very sharp changes over the past two decades, falling dramatically in the first part of the 1980s before rising in more recent years. This paper emphasizes two factors in the evolution of private saving in France. The first relates to perceptions of household income growth and uncertainty, which are likely to have been affected by deteriorating labor market conditions, and which may therefore help to account for the recent increase in saving. The second factor relates to financial deregulation which may have lowered saving and increased its sensitivity to interest rate changes. It is argued that both factors have played some role in the evolution of French household saving.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995.
November 1, 1994
Treasury Bill Auctions: Issues and Uses
Description: We review the main issues that arise in the design of treasury bill auctions and survey the relevant empirical literature. We also provide a detailed description of the actual design of these auctions in a sample of 42 industrial and developing countries.
Notes: Contains a detailed description of the actual design of treasury bill auctions in a sample of 42 industrial and developing countries.
November 1, 1994
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and U.K. Manufacturing Exports
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
November 1, 1994
The Meaning of Balance of Payments Statistics in an Interdependent World
Description: The relevance of the standard measures of international transactions in goods and services as reflected in the fifth edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) and in the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) has been questioned in several recent studies and articles. Alternative measures have been proposed, that either (i) substitute an ownership basis for transactions for the long-established residency basis; (ii) maintain the residency basis but combine net direct, investment income with goods and services; or question the validity of any measures in the form of net balances as a guide to policy. This paper affirms the central role of residency in the international accounts, discusses the supplementary value of alternative proposals, and notes the importance of international efforts to improve and refine the measurement of external transactions based on the principles of the BPM and SNA.
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