Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1994
December 1, 1994
Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?
Description: Some countries undergoing exchange-rate-based stabilization and financial liberalization in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere have faced large capital inflows since 1991. Many have tried to sterilize the reserve inflows. Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart argue essentially that sterilization is more difficult than generally realized, due to the interest costs on sterilization bonds. Reisen argues essentially that sterilization is easier than generally believed. This paper reviews the issues in the simplest textbook model and concludes that local interest rates are not likely to rise if the source of the disturbance is an exogenous capital inflow, but will rise if the disturbance is an increase in money demand or an increase in exports.
December 1, 1994
Financing the Transition of Previously Centrally Planned Economies: Macroeconomic Effectson Western Europe
Description: Under alternative assumptions on the likely developments in external financing of PCPE transition, and based on a multi-country, forward-looking model that includes a simplified PCPE block, we simulate the response of PCPEs to a transfer of capital from the industrial countries, and assess the potential implications for Western Europe over the next ten years. Real interest rates in Western Europe are likely to experience only mild upward pressure, and most macroeconomic aggregates are likely to change by substantially smaller magnitudes than typical over the business cycle.
December 1, 1994
How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications
Description: The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.
December 1, 1994
Toward a Framework for a Budget Law for Economies in Transition
Description: This paper discusses basic principles underlying budget law and reviews key features of budget legislation in several OECD countries as a basis for development of budget legislation in economies in transition to a market environment (EITs). It recommends a broad structure and a number of specific provisions that could be included in budget law for EITs.
December 1, 1994
A Monetary Impulse Measure for Medium-Term Policy Analysis
Description: The paper presents a measure of monetary impulse that is intended to reflect the medium-term inflationary implications of a nation’s current monetary policy. The measure consists of the growth rate of the monetary base, adjusted for reserve requirement changes and augmented by an implicit forecast of future growth rates of base velocity. Time series plots of the impulse measure for the G-7 countries are presented, and are compared with plots of inflation and of two alternative monetary indicators—the yield curve slope and the growth rate of a broad monetary aggregate. The impulse measure serves well as a medium-term indicator of future inflation, and on balance matches or outperforms the alternative indicators.
December 1, 1994
China'S Imports: An Empirical Analysis Using Johansen'S Cointegration Approach
Description: In this paper, the behavior of China’s imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen’s cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China’s imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy.
December 1, 1994
Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics
Description: The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance. This study, however, reveals two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology: The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used, and the assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate. Accuracy would be improved if IFS total trade were allocated, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data; and the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors were replaced by adjustment factors derived from historical data.