Working Papers
1995
June 1, 1995
International Financial Flows and Transactions Taxes: Survey and Options
Description: Tobin has suggested that exchange rate volatility be controlled through a tax on international financial transactions. This analysis shows that the Tobin tax as a pure transaction tax is not viable. The tax would impair financial operations and create international liquidity problems. It is also unlikely to deter speculation. However, a possible alternative would be a two-tier rate structure—consisting of a low-rate transaction tax plus an exchange surcharge. The exchange rate could move freely within a “crawling” exchange rate band, but overshooting the band would trigger a tax on an “externality,” which is the discrepancy between the market exchange rate and the closest margin of the band. The scheme is inspired by the European Monetary System. However, exchange rates would be kept within the target range through a tax, not through interest policy or central bank sterilization and, eventually, the depletion of international reserves.
Notes: Discusses the Tobin Tax.
June 1, 1995
Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy
Description: The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in international capital flows is examined. Theories of the determinants of FDI are surveyed, and the economic consequences of FDI for both host (recipient) and home (investor) nations are examined in light of empirical studies. Policy issues surrounding possible negotiation of a “multilateral agreement on investment” are discussed.
June 1, 1995
Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth
Description: This paper examines the possibility of nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. It finds evidence of a significant structural break in the function that relates economic growth to inflation. The break is estimated to occur when the inflation rate is 8 percent. Below that rate, inflation does not have any effect on growth, or it may even have a slightly positive effect. When the inflation rate is above 8 percent, however, the estimated effect of inflation on growth rates is significant, robust and extremely powerful. The paper also demonstrates that when the existence of the structural break is ignored, the estimated effect of inflation on growth is biased by a factor of three.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996.
June 1, 1995
Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark, and Yen
Description: In this paper we use an exchange rate model that combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. In contrast to much other empirical exchange rate modeling, our approach explicitly involves the use of a current account sustainability term. Amongst the findings reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for all of the currencies studied; appealing short-run dynamics for two of the currencies; and a finding that the Japanese effective exchange rate closely tracks the long-run exchange rate defined in this paper.
June 1, 1995
Relative Price Convergence in Russia
Description: Following price and exchange rate liberalization, domestic consumer prices in Russia moved closer to market levels. This paper quantifies the magnitude of the associated relative price changes. It also shows that relative price variability has been positively correlated with inflation. It is further established that convergence toward international relative and absolute price levels is far from complete, and that geographical price dispersion within Russia has declined since early 1992 but remains fairly high.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996.
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1995
May 1, 1995
The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth
Description: Although conventional wisdom suggests that reducing military spending may improve a country’s economic growth performance, empirical studies have produced ambiguous results. This paper extends a standard growth model and estimates it using techniques that exploit both cross-section and time-series dimensions of available data to obtain consistent estimates of the growth-retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Model simulations suggest that a substantial long-run “Peace Dividend”--in the form of higher capacity output--may result from: (i) markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s; and (ii) further military spending cuts that would be possible in the future if a global peace could be secured.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996.