Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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1995
July 1, 1995
Four Decades of Fund Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stylized Facts Before the Adjustment Programs
Description: This paper analyzes the initial conditions before Fund financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 324 Fund arrangements in 78 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important differences in the characteristics between program episodes and a control group. Program episodes exhibit weaker balance of payments, output growth, investment, external conditions and fiscal policy than the control group; they are also characterized by a higher degree of external indebtedness and inflation, and their exchange rates are more depreciated in both nominal and real terms. Only in the case of the growth rates of money and credit do the two groups appear to be statistically similar.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 3, September 1996.
July 1, 1995
Recording Insurance Transactions in the Balance of Payments
Description: Insurance enterprises provide services, called insurance services, to policyholders. The values of such services are seldom, if ever, directly apparent; rather these values are implicitly entwined within the payment of premiums. This paper discusses the treatment of insurance services, and related transactions, in the balance of payments. A simple measure, based on a number of assumptions, of nonlife insurance services is considered. The assumptions underlying this measure are then relaxed. The treatment of life insurance, which has many of the characteristics of nonlife insurance, is then addressed. The paper concludes with a discussion on the practical aspects of measuring insurance transactions in the balance of payments.
July 1, 1995
Recording Interest Income in the Balance of Payments
Description: In the balance of payments, as well as the national accounts, income refers to the use of factors of production. Accordingly, income should be recorded in the balance of payments during the period or periods in which the economic benefits arising from the use of a factor of production are enjoyed by the user—that is, on an accrual basis. This paper discusses: (1) the theoretical implications of using the accrual basis for recording interest income, including the nature of entries necessary to offset income accrued but not paid and the calculation of accrued interest; and (2) the practical aspects of measuring interest on this basis.
July 1, 1995
Employment and Wages in the Public Sector: A Cross-Country Study
Description: We study the determinants of employment and wages in the public sector, using a new set of panel data for 34 LDCs and 21 OECD countries from 1972–992, by estimating equations suggested by an efficiency wage model. We find that government employment is positively associated with the relaxation of resource constraints (the revenue-to-GDP ratio and foreign financing in the case of developing countries and GDP per capita in the case of OECD countries), urbanization, the level of education, and certain countercyclical pressures for government hiring (the real effective exchange rate for developing countries and private employment for OECD countries). Certain measures of government wages are positively associated with government revenues and negatively associated with the level of education, government debt, and countercyclical pressures.
July 1, 1995
The Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange in an Oil Exporting Economy: The Case of Iran, 1978-1990
Description: This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for foreign exchange In the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1978-90. The paper then examines the various time series properties of parallel market exchange rate in Iran, and the evidence of the role of oil and non-oil exports in the determination of the parallel market premium.
July 1, 1995
Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts: Renewing the Puzzle of the Pricing of Closed-End Mutual Funds
Description: This paper argues that recent movements in closed-end emerging markets funds present a strong challenge to the leading explanations of the behavior of closed-end country fund prices. In particular, closed-end funds dedicated to Mexico and other Latin American stock markets developed large premia after the December 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso and the subsequent financial crisis. The so-called “investor sentiment hypothesis” could explain these events only by suggesting that investors became very optimistic about emerging markets stocks, and especially Mexican stocks; this possibility seems unlikely given the facts surrounding the devaluation. We argue instead that a sensible explanation for recent dynamics of closed-end country funds is that investors in these funds are loss-averse, implying that they do not want to realize paper losses on their closed-end fund shares. This works to put a drag on the downward movement in closed-end fund prices.
July 1, 1995
Internal Migration, Center-State Grants and Economic Growth in the States of India
Description: This paper examines the growth experience of twenty states of India during the period 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially-poor states did indeed grow faster than their initially-rich counterparts. There has also been a widening of the dispersion of real per capita state incomes over the period 1961-91. However, relatively more grants were transferred from the central government to the poor states than to their rich counterparts. Significant barriers to population flows also exist, as net migration from poor to rich states responded only weakly to cross-state income differentials.
Notes: Examines the growth experience of twenty states of India during the period 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996.
July 1, 1995
Unemployment Benefits Versus Conditional Negative Income Taxes
Description: The paper analyzes the wage-employment effects of replacing unemployment benefits by negative income taxes. It first surveys the major equity and efficiency effects of unemployment benefits versus negative income taxes, and summarizes the salient features of many European unemployment benefit systems in this light. Second, it presents a simple theoretical model that focuses on the relative wage-employment effects of unemployment benefits versus negative income taxes. Finally, it provides some empirical groundwork for assessing this relative effect
July 1, 1995
Institutional Structure and Labor Market Outcomes: Western Lessons for European Countries in Transition
Description: Changes in economic systems provide a rare opportunity to redesign basic institutional structures in labor markets. This paper attempts to provide guidance for such institutional choice by drawing on the findings of recent labor market research in market economies on the links between institutional structure and labor market performance. After considering the suitability of research from market economies for the labor market problems faced by economies in transition from central planning, the paper considers the effects of alternative institutions for wage determination (collective bargaining structures and minimum wage and indexation legislation), employment security, income security, and active labor market policy.