Working Papers
1995
November 1, 1995
The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment
Description: This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on economic flexibility and the channels through which labor market imperfections alter the effects of structural adjustment measures are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation, such as the link between changes in relative wages and the distributional effects of adjustment policies.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 2, June 1996.
November 1, 1995
Effective Taxation for Recipients of Social Assistance in Germany and the Consequences of the 1996 Tax Reform
Description: This paper explores the problem of effective taxation at the lower end of the income scale in Germany. For the recipients of social income maintenance--currently about 1.8 million nationals--effective taxation consists not only of the explicit taxation through the tax code but also of the implicit taxation through the withdrawal of benefits. The paper calculates effective tax rates for recipients of social assistance; it is shown that for labor incomes in the lower income range explicit and implicit taxation add up to a marginal burden of just under 75 percent on average. The 1996 tax reform alleviates the explicit tax burden on low incomes, but it does not alleviate the total marginal burden on labor earnings of welfare recipients. It increases net incomes, but since the withdrawal of benefits increases with net incomes, too, the overall burden remains practically unchanged. Therefore, effective welfare traps remain prevalent; these could only be avoided through a reform of the system of social assistance and withdrawal. Constraints and possible steps for reform are discussed.
November 1, 1995
The Microstructure of Government Securities Markets
Description: This paper applies the “market microstructure” literature to the specific features of government securities markets and draws implications for the strategy to develop government securities markets. It argues for an active role of the authorities in fostering the development of efficient market structures.
November 1, 1995
Target Zones and Realignment Expectations: The Israeli and Mexican Experience
Description: This paper studies the Mexican and Israeli experience with a target zone. The first part of the paper develops a model of exchange rate determination under a target zone regime with stochastic realignments, and examines the conditions under which the adoption of the target zone, instead of a fixed exchange rate, reduces the volatility of the interest rate differential. We conclude that if the variance of the expected realignment is sufficiently large, then the target zone will be useful. The second part of the paper is an empirical study that shows that the target zone regime helped reduce interest rate variability in Israel and Mexico by absorbing part of the shocks to the expected realignment with movements of the exchange rate inside the band.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 3, September 1996.
November 1, 1995
Exchange Rate Movements, Inflation Expectations, and Currency Substitution in Turkey
Description: This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived from a two-stage portfolio choice model. This relationship is estimated by band spectrum regression which allows to remove from the data the short-term cyclical components. The results show that the relationship between currency substitution depends mainly on long-term movements in the exchange rate, while the effect of inflation on currency substitution is not statistically significant.
November 1, 1995
Spain: Unemployment, Debt Management, and Interest Rate Differentials
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
November 1, 1995
The Fiscal Stance in Sweden: A Generational Accounting Perspective
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
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