Working Papers
1995
December 1, 1995
Transformation of Markets and Policy Instruments for Open Market Operations
Description: As developing countries and economies in transition have relied on deregulated, competitive markets to spur growth, their central banks have shifted toward using open market operations as a tool of monetary policy. To be most effective, such operations require supportive changes in other policy instruments (reserve requirements, discount window), a competitive banking system and securities market, and adaptation of particular open market or market-type instruments used to the stage of, and potential for, market development. The paper assesses options available to a central bank for encouraging a competitive market architecture and designing instruments for implementation of open market operations.
December 1, 1995
A Model of the Bimetallic System
Description: This paper formalizes Irving Fisher’s century-old model of bimetallism and adds the important “disequilibrium” dynamics to deal with the long periods during which bimetallic countries were on effective monometallic standards. It resolves a long standing puzzle in the bimetallic literature regarding the remarkable stability of the gold/silver price ratio in the nineteenth century by modeling the bimetallic mint ratio as a regulating barrier to the gold/silver price ratio. It thus provides a clean-cut example of a target-zone model that—in contrast to other such models in the literature—exhibits the main predicted nonlinearities in the data. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
December 1, 1995
Trade Policies and Lithuania's Reintegration Into the Global Economy
Description: The reintegration into the world economy has been an integral part of Lithuania’s transformation process. Trade policy reform has been assigned a key role, aiming at opening up the economy and redirecting foreign trade. This paper (i) analyzes the trade shock following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union; (ii) studies the political economy of trade reforms; (iii) evaluates Lithuania’s attempts to gain greater access to Western markets, in particular the European Union; and (iv) reviews the empirical evidence on redirecting foreign trade.
December 1, 1995
Competitiveness and External Trade Performance of the French Manufacturing Industry
Description: This paper provides an assessment of competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry during the 1980s and early 1990s. The first part of the paper reviews developments in a broad range of competitiveness indicators. The analysis indicates that the manufacturing sector appears to have maintained its competitive position in recent years. The second part discusses developments in export market shares. The third part estimates a vector error correction model relating the trade ratio to relative unit labor costs, domestic and foreign demand, and nonprice competitiveness. Variance decompositions suggest that fluctuations in price and nonprice competitiveness account for about two-fifths of fluctuations in manufacturing trade flows.
December 1, 1995
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 3, September 1996.
December 1, 1995
On the Measurement of Horizontal Inequity
Description: This paper makes a new attack on the old problem of measuring horizontal inequity in the income tax. Local measures of inequality of posttax income among pretax equals are proposed, which reflect alternative value judgments about the nature and magnitude of an inequity. These measures are aggregated into global indices. The welfare gain from eliminating horizontal inequity revenue-neutrally, and the revenue gain from eliminating it welfare-neutrally, in each case preserving the vertical performance of the tax, are captured by these indices. Difficulties of implementation arising from the “identification problem” are discussed. A variation in the methodology validates banding the income data to create “close equals” groups. Simulations show that the banding procedure works well. A range of potentially fruitful applications is discussed.
December 1, 1995
Capital Account Liberalization in Finland: Analysis of Structural Changes
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
December 1, 1995
The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries
Description: This paper describes the growth of public spending in industrial countries over the past century. It identifies several periods: the periods between 1870 and 1913; the period between the two World Wars; the post World War II period up to 1960; and the period after 1960. Public spending started growing during World War I but its growth accelerated after 1960. The paper outlines the reasons for this growth and speculates that recent government growth has not brought about much economic or social progress. The paper sees the future of government mainly in setting the “rules of the game,” and provides a rough blueprint for reform. It also discusses experiences with government reform in selected count les, and predicts that over the next decades, public spending as a share of GDP will fall.
Notes: Paper presented at the Conference on "Inequality, the Welfare State and Social Values," El Escorial (Madrid, Spain), July 11-13, 1995.
December 1, 1995
Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates, and Net Foreign Assets in the Adjustment Process
Description: This paper analyzes the recent behavior of real exchange rates, the trade balance and the net foreign asset position of the United States in an intertemporal optimizing model of the world economy that incorporates heterogeneity across countries and imperfect international capital and good markets. While the model successfully tracks the dynamics of trade balances and net foreign assets it generates too much consumption smoothing and excessively volatile relative prices. Resolving these inadequacies simultaneously is difficult as the elasticity of substitution between tradables and nontradables affects in opposite ways the degree of consumption smoothing and the volatility of relative prices.
December 1, 1995
Long-Term Tendencies in Budget Deficits and Debt
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Notes: Paper was presented at a symposium, "Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options," held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on September 1-2, 1995, and sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.