Working Papers
1996
June 1, 1996
Macroeconomic Implications of Money Laundering
Description: This paper reviews the main analytical, empirical, and policy issues related to the macroeconomic implications of money laundering. The paper discusses, first, how money laundering can be measured, given that it is unobservable, and reports cross-section econometric estimates of the displacement of monetary behavior in industrial countries attributed to money laundering. It then examines the various potential channels by which money laundering influences macroeconomic performance, including an econometric estimate of its effects on GDP growth rates. Finally, the paper discusses macropolicy implications, particularly in the areas of exchange controls, prudential banking supervision, tax evasion, statistical reporting, and legislation.
June 1, 1996
Worldwide Military Spending, 1990-1995
Description: The decline in military spending that began in the mid-1980s continued through 1995, and this decline was widespread both geographically and by level of development. Cuts in military spending appear to have potentially important implications for nonmilitary spending and fiscal adjustment. In contrast to findings for previous periods, military spending has declined more than proportionately in those countries that have reduced total spending. Countries with Fund programs have reduced military spending more sharply than other developing countries, largely reflecting outcomes in the transition economies. Further, military spending appears to have been less resilient in program countries than other developing countries.
June 1, 1996
Bank-By-Bank Credit Ceilings: Issues and Experiences
Description: Many central banks have abandoned credit ceilings in favor of monetary control frameworks based on indirect instruments. In the long run, ceilings limited competition, hampered the development of a money market, and caused disintermediation. Despite the many distortions associated with the use of credit ceilings, some countries continue to employ them, particularly during the transitional period before full reliance on indirect monetary instruments. The paper argues that the careful attention to design can help reduce distortions typically associated with the use of credit ceilings. It identifies a series of principles that may be followed in designing a system that can minimize those distortions.
June 1, 1996
An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments
Description: This study uses the fiscal expansion and consolidation experiences of the industrial countries over the period 1970 to 1995 to examine the interplay between fiscal adjustments and economic performance. A key finding is that fiscal consolidation need not trigger an economic slowdown. Fiscal consolidation that concentrates on the expenditure side, and especially on transfers and government wages, is more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt ratio than tax-based consolidation. Also, the greater the magnitude of the fiscal consolidation, the more likely it is to succeed in reducing the debt ratio.
June 1, 1996
What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach
Description: This paper uses cross-section and panel data to examine the determinants of the current account. The empirics find a significant impact of the stage of development and demographic factors in the cross section. Estimating partial-adjustment and error-correction models using panel data, the paper finds a short- and long-run impact of fiscal policy on the current account in the time series. The real exchange rate, the business cycle and the terms of trade are also shown to have short-run effects on the current account, while the stage of development and demographics have longer-run effects.
June 1, 1996
Moderate Inflation in Poland: A Real Story
Description: Why is moving from moderate to low inflation almost always slow or costly? This paper answers this question, based on the Polish experience. First, reflecting the transition to a market economy, Polish inflation has been marked by significant changes in relative prices. Second, as wage and price indexation takes root, the inflationary effect of shocks to relative prices is magnified. Third, lagging structural reform, including the failure to extend hard budget constraints to all sectors of the economy, makes monetary policy less effective. Reduced money supply growth with structural reform offers the best prospect for moving to low inflation.
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