Working Papers

August 1, 1996

Income Distribution and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

Description: The factors underlying the rise in U.S. income inequality since the mid-1970s are examined. The results suggest that the trend increase in income inequality has not been related to macroeconomic developments, such as income growth or import penetration, but that the income distribution is sensitive to the cycle. Important factors that do help explain the widening of the income distribution include the increased investment in technology and the decline in the minimum wage. The rise in the share of single female-headed households, the increased proportion of households headed by someone over the age of 35, and the fall in the child-dependency ratio also help explain movements in income shares.

August 1, 1996

The Social Safety Net in Albania

Description: This paper reviews the developments in the social safety net system of Albania since the beginning of its economic adjustment program in mid-1992 through the third quarter of 1995. It shows that the social safety net system was quickly reformed, and that this allowed Albanian authorities to support the most needy groups of the population with income transfers. Notwithstanding the low administrative costs, the social safety net system is not financially sustainable. Expenditures are not balanced with revenues, and the gap cannot be closed in the short-run. Poor targeting of the benefits and administrative loopholes spur expenditures. Revenue growth is hindered by low compliance with the social security contributions. The paper concludes with some suggestions for addressing this issues.

August 1, 1996

Currency Speculation and the Optimum Control of Bank Lending in Singapore Dollar: A Case for Partial Liberalization

Description: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has a long-standing policy of controlling bank lending in Singapore dollars to nonresidents and to residents who use the funds outside Singapore. While the control may prevent the internationalization of the Singapore dollar and contain exchange rate volatility, it can hinder the deepening and widening of the financial markets in Singapore. This paper suggests three policy options that would allow traders and investors to borrow Singapore dollars without any restrictions, while making it costly for speculators since their activities can cause exchange rate volatility which arguably imposes external costs to society.

August 1, 1996

Pension Reform, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: Preliminary Evidence From Chile

Description: The Chilean pension reform of 1981, in which Chile moved from an unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance since the mid-1980s. The paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the claimed economic effects and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured growth, capital formation, and saving effects. The empirical evidence is consistent with most of the claims. In particular, the direct impact of financial market development on private saving is found to be negative, which underscores the importance of sound fiscal policy and public saving to support the transition.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 2, June 1997.

August 1, 1996

Regional Growth in Mexico: 1970-1993

Description: This paper finds convergence of real per capita GDP in Mexico’s states and regions during the period of higher average national per capita growth (1970-85), and divergence during the lower-growth period (1985-93). These results hold across states and regions and within regions. The poorest states and regions grew more than twice as fast as the rest during the first period and experienced absolute and relative decline during the second period. The growth performance of a poor state in relation to the group of poor states was more erratic than the growth performance of a richer state in relation to its group.

August 1, 1996

Stock-Market Equilibrium and the Dividend Yield

Description: Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.

August 1, 1996

U.S. Private Saving and the Tax Treatment of IRA/401(k)s: A Re-examination Using Household Survey Data

Description: The effect of the tax treatment of IRA/401(k)s on U.S. personal saving is examined using household survey data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. The results suggest that the tax treatment of IRA/401(k)s encouraged households to increase the share of assets held in the form of pension savings, at the expense of saving in the form of housing equity. Some evidence also was found to suggest that the tax treatment of pension savings similarly affected the flow of saving. In particular, the data appeared to reject the hypothesis that the tax treatment of IRA/401(k)s increased total personal saving.

August 1, 1996

Policy towards Commodity Shocks in Developing Countries

Description: On the basis of a comparative study of 23 episodes involving commodity price shocks we find that both the public and private sectors typically save around half of a windfall gain resulting from a price rise. We argue that private windfalls should be left with the private sector rather than taxed. The focus of policy towards windfalls should be monetary rather than fiscal. The central bank should accommodate aggregate changes in the demand for financial assets. The private sector will initially wish to increase its claims on the central bank as it saves the windfall, but will then reduce them as portfolios are switched into real assets.

August 1, 1996

Deposit Insurance: Obtaining the Benefits and Avoiding the Pitfalls

Description: The paper contrasts deposit protection with other forms of insurance, examines why goods and services of all kinds receive warranties and guarantees, and explores the particular characteristics of deposits and banks that merit deposit insurance. It examines a variety of reasons why countries choose to adopt systems of deposit insurance, the pitfalls that can arise from poorly designed schemes, and the features of a scheme that successfully avoids these pitfalls.

August 1, 1996

Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence

Description: This paper examines the sources of disturbances to output in the United States and a set of EU countries and analyzes labor market adjustment mechanisms in these two economic areas. Comparable datasets comprising 1-digit sectoral data for eight U.S. regions and eight European countries are constructed and used to compare the degree of industrial diversification and the relative importance of different sources of shocks to output growth. Both areas are found to be subject to similar overall disturbances although a disaggregated perspective reveals some important differences. The major difference, however, is in labor market adjustment. Interregional labor mobility appears to be a much more important adjustment mechanism in the United States, which has a more integrated labor market than the EU.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, March 1997.