Working Papers
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1996
August 1, 1996
Policy Complementarities: The Case for Fundamental Labor Market Reform
Description: This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, March 1997.
August 1, 1996
Unemployment in Greece: A Survey of the Issues
Description: The Greek unemployment rate rose from 2 percent in the 1960s to 9-10 percent in the 1990s. This reflected the increase in female participation rates, the slowdown in growth, the restructuring of production, and the increased mismatch between jobs and job seekers. But the most crucial factor was the persistence of real wage aspirations. The paper develops and tests a model that attributes this to the rapid expansion in the number of easy, life-time government jobs and the increase in the public/private wage differential during the 1980s.
August 1, 1996
Volatility of Oil Prices
Description: This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.