Working Papers

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1997

April 1, 1997

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Creation and Destruction

Description: This paper presents theory and evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on job creation and job destruction. First, it solves a dynamic matching model and it shows how interest rate changes result in an asymmetric response of job creation and destruction. Second, it looks at how changes in the federal fund rate affect gross job flows in the U.S. manufacturing industry, and it finds evidence of asymmetry. Tight policy increases job destruction and reduces net employment changes. Conversely, easy policy appears ineffective in stimulating job creation.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, December 1997.

April 1, 1997

Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination

Description: This paper investigates the behavior of Korean trade flows during the last three decades and presents estimates of aggregate export and import equations. In particular, it considers different choices for scale and price variables and assesses the relative merits of these alternative specifications in terms of stability and forecasting performance. It also provides an assessment of the drastic change in the geographical destination of Korean exports during the 1990s.

April 1, 1997

Fiscal Aspects of Bank Restructuring

Description: Governments frequently assist troubled banks. This paper examines the fiscal aspects of such assistance: rationale, design criteria, methods, and macroeconomic implications. It concludes that (1) banks should be assisted only when there is a clear systemic risk; (2) assistance should be tied to a comprehensive restructuring program, minimize fiscal cost, be equitable and transparent, prevent recurrence, and facilitate a sound macroeconomic environment; (3) debt-based assistance will worsen public sector debt sustainability and will probably increase aggregate demand; and (4) assistance may require a substantial fiscal response (especially given the possible need for a looser monetary stance), which should feed iteratively into the choice of restructuring strategy.

April 1, 1997

Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries: Are they a Problem?

Description: Applying a consumption-smoothing model to five ASEAN countries reveals that excessive private consumption has not tended to characterize their widening external imbalances in recent years, except to a small degree in Indonesia and Malaysia. Beyond consumption smoothing, however, a number of factors influence the desirability of running large external deficits, including the level and composition of external liabilities, the flexibility of macroeconomic policies, and the health of banking systems. Even when the current account deficit appears sustainable, there is a case to reduce them in order to lower the risks arising from such factors.

April 1, 1997

Zaïre’s Hyperinflation, 1990-96

Description: This paper reviews Zaïre’s experience with hyperinflation during 1990-96 and develops an illustrative model based on a money demand function that includes government revenue as a determinant. Government revenue is itself subject to the “Tanzi effect,” in which inflation tends to lower revenue collections. The model is estimated over the 1990-96 period, and simulations are also presented. The paper concludes with a number of observations and policy recommendations for stopping hyperinflation in Zaïre.

April 1, 1997

The IMF Monetary Model At Forty

Description: A model reflecting the monetary approach to the balance of payments was developed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the 1950s. Its purpose was to integrate monetary, income, and balance of payments analysis, and it became the basis of the conditionality applied to IMF credits. Extremely simple, with primary focus on the balance of payments effects of credit creation by the banking system, the model has retained its usefulness for policy purposes over time, as it was adapted to changes in member countries’ priorities and in the international monetary system, in particular the disappearance of the par value system.

April 1, 1997

Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF: A Historical Review

Description: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.

April 1, 1997

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Evidence From Italian Data

Description: This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be sizable (relative to the dimension of the forward premium), highly volatile (relative to the variability of the forward bias), and predictable. Estimation of structural models of the risk premium suggests that anticipated fiscal contractions in Italy and lower uncertainty about the future path of fiscal policy are associated with a lower risk premium on lira-denominated assets.

April 1, 1997

International Labor Standards and International Trade

Description: This paper reviews controversies regarding linkage of international trade and labor standards. Pressures for international harmonization of labor standards arise in the context of increased trade between countries with large disparities in wages, and also reflect the history of labor standards. A critical distinction is made between standards related to fundamental human rights and those related to employment conditions. The main conclusion is that trade sanctions to enforce labor standards should not be an option, but that international agreements on core labor standards, with voluntary compliance, may, apart from being worthwhile on ethical grounds, defuse calls for protection.

April 1, 1997

Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden

Description: This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.

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