Working Papers
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1997
April 1, 1997
Liberalization and the Behavior of Output During the Transition From Plan to Market
Description: This paper deals with liberalization and the evolution of output during the transition from plan to market. It explains why strong liberalization leads to a comparatively steep fall in output early in the transition, but a relatively strong recovery later on. Because it takes time to restructure the capital stock inherited from the old system, liberalization initially leads to transitional unemployment of capital and the contraction of the old enterprise sector. By making room quickly for the new, more efficient enterprises, however, liberalization also sets the stage for recovery and a much higher level of income in the medium term.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, December 1997.
April 1, 1997
Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries: An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness
Description: Recent and ongoing agreements to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU) and Arab countries raises the question as to how the latter will fare in a more competitive environment. This paper uses the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade (IIT) index as an indicator of the degree of industrial specialization to study Arab countries’ ability to compete in a more open trade setting. It concludes that whereas increased specialization has been achieved over the last decade in Arab countries, IIT remains low not only in absolute terms, but even in a cross-country comparison, when normalized for the level of development.