Working Papers
1997
May 1, 1997
A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System
Description: This paper describes the methodology and the data used to compute nominal and real effective exchange rate indices in the International Monetary Fund’s Information Notice System (INS). In particular, it highlights improvements to the INS implemented over 1994-96, including modifications to the computational methodology, use of updated data, and extension of the INS to recent Fund members.
May 1, 1997
What Type of Contracts Underlie Aggregate Wage Dynamics?
Description: This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the importance of different types of wage contracts at the aggregate level using the same data used to estimate standard Phillips curves. It finds that the behavior of the Chilean private aggregate wage during the 1980s is well described by two-year contracts that are revised every six months according to 100 percent of past inflation. The estimates also show that the unemployment rate was a strong determinant of the contract’s target real wage and that most wage negotiations were carried through during the first half of every year. The results prove robust to a variety of tests and fit the data better than standard Phillips curves.
May 1, 1997
Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries
Description: We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect cointegration in panel data than in the available time series; moreover, the rate of reversion to long-run equilibrium is estimated with greater precision. Using the model augmented by oil prices, we find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that implied by a naive version of purchasing power parity.
May 1, 1997
Experiences with Monetary Integration and Lessons for Korean Unification
Description: This paper discusses the timing of monetary integration and supporting economic policies during a rapid and largely uncontrolled process of Korean unification. The paper concludes that the transitory use of a separate currency in each region and supporting economic policies would help limit the initial costs of unification although the extent of the eventual cost reduction would depend critically on the success of ensuing economic reforms in the North during the transition. Maintaining the competitiveness of the northern economy would need to be a primary policy objective in the case of an early introduction of a common currency.
May 1, 1997
Contrasting Monetary Regimes in Africa
Description: In post-independence sub-Saharan Africa, institutional arrangements for monetary policy have taken a variety of forms, although the historical evolution of many African financial systems has been similar. This paper identifies five different regimes and examines how they evolved over time. It focuses on how the alternative institutional arrangements have influenced the performance of monetary policy under fiscal pressure, and concludes that, although the trend appears to be toward more flexible regimes, the transition to greater flexibility can exacerbate problems of credibility and of macroeconomic management.
May 1, 1997
Does Public Disagreementon Monetary Policy Unsettle the Markets?
Description: Publication of minutes of monthly monetary policy meetings between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England was a conspicuous feature of the United Kingdom’s inflation targeting framework from 1994 through April 1997. It was intended to reinforce credibility by publicizing the criteria on which policy was decided. On some occasions, however, these minutes revealed disagreement between the participants. This paper examines whether such disagreement unsettled the markets and detracted from credibility.
May 1, 1997
European Monetary Union and International Capital Markets: Structural Implications and Risks
Description: This paper analyzes the structural implications of EMU for international capital markets. It discusses the potential size of euro capital markets and the existing roles of European currencies in international capital markets. The paper also examines the euro’s impact on international securities markets, including the role of the ECB, the evolution of EMU securities markets, and aspects of systemic risk management. The implications for wholesale and retail banking markets are also discussed, as are the broader implications of the introduction of the euro for changes in international capital flows, international portfolios, and by implication exchange rates.
May 1, 1997
Social Security Tax Reform and Unemployment: A General Equilibrium Analysis for France
Description: This paper develops and calibrates a simple general equilibrium model with two types of labor and capital for the French economy. The simulation results indicate that targeted reductions in employer social security taxes have six times as large an effect on employment as untargeted reductions for equal initial budgetary cost, while employee social security tax reductions have a negative effect on employment. They also point to the presence of “self-financing,” whereby reductions in various tax rates lead to lower budget deficits in the long run, as a result of an expanding tax base and lower unemployment insurance outlays.1
May 1, 1997
Explaining Consumption: A Simple Test of Alternative Hypotheses
Description: A method of testing the relative importance for consumption of risk sharing behavior and changes in current income is proposed and estimated using data across Canadian provinces. The focus of the estimation is less on whether or not the risk sharing model can be rejected than on how much each of these hypotheses can contribute to explaining overall variation in consumption. Both types of behavior are found to be statistically significant, but the risk sharing model is found to explain considerably more of the growth in consumption than does changes in income.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, December 1997.
May 1, 1997
The GATS Agreementon Financial Services: A Modest Start to Multilateral Liberalization
Description: This paper analyzes the links between multilateral, and unilateral financial liberalization, the former represented by the General Agreements on Trade in Services (GATS). It provides an overview of the main features of the GATS and what the participants in banking and securities within its framework, and compares GATS liberalization with the actual state of liberalization of the participants’ financial sectors. The results suggest that in many countries multilaterally liberalized financial sector policies are more restrictive than the actual state of openness or development of financial sectors. Many emerging markets liberalized little under the GATS despite often well-developed financial markets, while the opposite was true in some less developed developing countries.
Notes: GATS is the General Agreement on Trade Services.