Working Papers
1997
June 1, 1997
Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization in Western Europe: Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal
Description: This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.
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1997
May 1, 1997
Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting
Description: Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.
May 1, 1997
Investment Implications of Selected WTO Agreements and the Proposed Multilateral Agreementon Investment
Description: The substantial increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years has triggered a discussion of a uniform treatment of investment in international law. Most contributions to the multilateral investment framework derive from the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements on trade liberalization. The resulting framework is incomplete, as the WTO agreements restrict their focus on investment to aspects related to international trade and often apply to selected sectors only. A broader investment regime is needed to provide a more neutral incentive framework for investment liberalization and to promote efficient international investment flows.
May 1, 1997
Characteristics of the Euro, the Demand for Reserves, and Policy Coordination Under EMU
Description: The success of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will depend on the stability of the euro. The monetary policy framework is yet to be decided, but is likely to involve either money or inflation targeting. Stochastic simulations compare the outcomes for major macroeconomic and financial variables pre- and post-EMU under both policy rules, as well as under an inflation targeting rule that includes output. Implications for the euro as a reserve currency are examined in the light of the expected returns and covariances among reserve currencies. The role of the exchange rate as an indicator and incentives for policy coordination with other major countries are also discussed.