Working Papers
1997
July 1, 1997
Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on Taxation and Interest Spending of National Governments
Description: This paper examines the interest spending and taxation channels through which EMU could affect the public finances. It provides a framework for examining different views on a further narrowing of interest rate differentials. A model of Blanchard and Fischer is amended to analyze the two channels, and empirical evidence on the tax harmonization process is presented. The paper argues that “high-debt” and “high-tax” countries pursuing prudent fiscal policies could benefit the most from EMU: if monetary and widespread fiscal discipline are jointly established, interest rates could decline rapidly, while tax harmonization is likely to be gradual.
July 1, 1997
Authorities' Roles and Organizational Issues in Systemic Bank Restructuring
Description: Systemic bank restructuring must be the responsibility of one government authority only, with other authorities providing support and analytical help. The restructuring authority, whose tasks are enumerated and discussed, should preferably be a separate and temporary agency reporting to the finance ministry. Other solutions are possible but not recommended. Parliament should be involved in setting priorities and supervising the process, but political interference in restructuring operations should be avoided. Practical issues to consider include ensuring efficient cooperation between authorities; the arrangement of problem asset workout and recovery; and restructuring of politically sensitive enterprises.
July 1, 1997
Exogenous Shocks, Deposit Runs and Bank Soundness: A Macroeconomic Framework
Description: In a model where all banks are initially solvent, an exogenous shock affects confidence, causing a flight from deposits into domestic and foreign currency. Real interest rates increase unexpectedly, affecting firms and raising the share of the banks’ nonperforming assets. This increase causes genuine solvency problems and accelerates the bank run. Policy simulations show that compensatory monetary policy (increasing currency supply when deposits fall) mitigates the bank run but causes inflation and external imbalances. Combining compensatory monetary policy with tight fiscal policies also slows the bank run and mitigates insolvency, but at a lower macroeconomic cost. A devaluation is shown to have little positive impact.
July 1, 1997
From Suez to Tequila: The IMF As Crisis Manager
Description: The IMF was established in 1944 in part to “give confidence” to member countries by providing short-term credits. Although the intention was that the availability of the Fund’s resources should prevent countries from experiencing financial crises, in practice the institution often has found itself helping its members cope with crises after they occur. This paper examines how the role of the IMF as crisis manager has evolved over time, from its earliest loans to the exchange crisis that hit Mexico in December 1994. It argues that the defining moment for this role was the international debt crisis of 1982.
July 1, 1997
Institutional Development: Skill Transference Through a Reversal of “Human Capital Flight” or Technical Assistance
Description: We examine the issue of technical assistance versus brain drain repatriation as alternative strategies for transferring scarce skills to a skill-poor economy. Technical assistance relies mainly on expatriate skills and labor from the host country, while brain drain repatriation seeks to effect a return of skills that might have been lost in migration. We show that, even in the simplest setting with imperfect information, a surprisingly rich menu of responses is obtained.
July 1, 1997
Recovery Ratios and Survival Times for Corporate Bonds
Description: This paper analyzes the determinants of the recovery ratios and survival times (time until default) for U. S. corporate bonds. We show that seniority, the type of industry in which the firm operates, and the type of restructuring attempted after default are the major determinants of the cross-sectional distribution of individual bond recovery ratios. On an industry level, physical asset obsolescence, industry growth, and industry concentration are the most important factors. We also analyze survival times for corporate bonds and find that initial time to maturity and the general economic conditions at maturity and default explain a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation of survival times.
July 1, 1997
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1998.
July 1, 1997
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Description: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1998.
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