Working Papers
1997
August 1, 1997
Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade
Description: We examine the relationship between Japanese FDI outflows, domestic and foreign fixed investment, and the exchange rate. The results indicate that aggregate FDI outflows have been driven by investment in Japan and the exchange rate, while the geographic distribution of such investment has been influenced by foreign economic conditions. We also find that FDI outflows have a temporary impact on exports but a permanent effect on imports. We find no evidence that behavior with respect to East Asia differs from that with respect to North America or Europe.
August 1, 1997
Fiscal Policy and Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Description: Establishing a policy framework to sustain high rates of growth is a major challenge facing the economies of the Middle East and North Africa. Given the strikingly dominant role of governments in these economies, this paper focuses on the contribution of fiscal consolidation and reform toward addressing this challenge. On the basis of an examination of fiscal structures, reform and adjustment efforts, and their growth implications during 1980-95, it concludes that the ongoing process of fiscal reform—aimed at reducing budget deficits, improving the budgetary structure, and enhancing the effectiveness of government interventions—is key to ensuring macroeconomic stability and fostering growth.
August 1, 1997
Controlling Fiscal Corruption
Description: This paper examines the issue of controlling fiscal corruption by providing incentives to fiscal officers. First, a case study of a successful attack on corruption is presented that shows the importance of attending to the conditions of service of fiscal officers. Second, a model is developed drawing on the conclusions of the case study that shows their consistency with optimization behavior. It confirms that simply providing bonuses is not enough. Corruption at higher levels of management has to be contained so as to allow bonuses to become more effective, and thereby to initiate a virtuous circle.
August 1, 1997
Some Evidenceon Exchange Rate Determination in Major Industrial Countries
Description: This paper examines the role of long-run monetary and cyclical factors in determining exchange rate movements. Results of empirical study using a data set that includes Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States support the view that exchange rate movements can be explained by the efficient or rational adjustment of foreign exchange markets to economic fundamentals. In the long run, the exchange rate is determined consistent with a monetary approach to exchange rates, while cyclical factors have an impact on short-run exchange rate dynamics. Estimated equations outperform random walk models of exchange rates.
August 1, 1997
Growth and Productivity in Asean Countries
Description: This study examines the nature of the growth process in the ASEAN countries, and particularly whether it has been generated primarily by more inputs or by productivity gains. It uses internationally comparable data and explores an alternative method for estimating the capital and labor factor shares. The results, contradicting some previous studies, indicate a very impressive growth rate of TFP in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, a relatively strong rate for Indonesia, and a negative rate for the Philippines. This study argues that the results of previous studies were driven mainly by the fact that they relied on national accounts data for measures of various variables and, in particular, the factor income shares of capital and labor.
August 1, 1997
Debt Reduction and New Loans: A Contracting Perspective
Description: International debt contracts can incorporate—at least implicitly—contingencies governing debt reduction. This paper examines a series of debt contracts that allow for the possibility of rescheduling, forgiveness, and rescheduling with forgiveness. The contract with both rescheduling and forgiveness permits a higher credit ceiling than other types of debt contracts, and contains features found in the HIPC and other recent debt reduction initiatives. If an adverse state of nature occurs, some of the debt is forgiven, a portion is rescheduled, and the remainder is repaid. At the same time, the debtor country is a net recipient of new loans.
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