Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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1997
September 1, 1997
Discrepancies Between Quarterly GDP Estimates
Description: Countries compiling quarterly estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) often use alternative approaches simultaneously. This may result in the publication of different measures of quarterly GDP and discrepancies between these measures. Such discrepancies are unavoidable, unless reconciliation takes place or the measures are mutually interdependent. This paper examines international practices in this respect, focusing on OECD member countries that publish quarterly GDP data. Of these, five publish GDP data with discrepancies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—and the paper examines causes and the development of these discrepancies.
September 1, 1997
Income Distribution and Social Expenditure in Brazil
Description: This paper examines trends in income distribution in Brazil and the determinants of income inequality, including social expenditure. While recent data reveal reduced income inequality since the Real Plan of July 1994, the distribution of income is still among the most unequal in the world. Among the most important determinants of income inequality in Brazil is extreme disparity in educational attainment levels. Public expenditures on education, health, and social insurance have tended to exacerbate income inequality. A number of options for improving the equity and efficiency of Brazilian social expenditure merit further examination.
September 1, 1997
Policy Complementarities and the Washington Consensus
Description: While economists continue to debate whether particular economic policies, such as those referred to in Willliamson’s (1993) “Washington Consensus,” can spur growth in developing countries, this paper demonstrates that it is combinations of policies that are more critical for growth. Policy complementarity refers to the mutually reinforcing benefits of policies that create an environment that is conducive to investment and growth. Quantitative measures of policy complementarity are developed, and the study shows empirically, through both an outcomes-based probability framework and a standard regression analysis, that these complementarities are significant and robust in explaining growth outcomes over the period 1985–95.
September 1, 1997
Determinants of Stock Prices: The Case of Zimbabwe
Description: This paper examines the general relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Zimbabwe, using the revised dividend discount model, error-correction model, and multi-factor return-generating model. Despite the large fluctuation in stock prices since 1991, this analysis indicates that the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange has been functioning quite consistently during this period. Whereas sharp increases in stock prices during 1993-94 were mainly due to the shift of risk premium that was caused by the partial capital account liberalization, the recent rapid increase in stock prices can be explained by the movements of monetary aggregates and market interest rates.
September 1, 1997
Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls
Description: This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1998.
September 1, 1997
The Changing Role of the State in the Economy: A Historical Perspective
Description: This paper discusses the role of the state from a historical perspective. It outlines how that role has changed over the past hundred years and discusses the forces that have promoted the changes. In the period between 1913 and 1980, there was a large increase in public spending in industrial countries and a considerable expansion in the role of the government in the economy in all countries. The paper also outlines the intellectual developments that, starting in the 1970s, have brought about a reaction to the large role that the state has come to play in the economy.
September 1, 1997
Japan's Restrictive System of Trade and Payments: Operation, Effectiveness, and Liberalization, 1950-1964
Description: The paper summarizes how Japan’s foreign exchange and trade control system operated in the early 1950s, how and how effectively it was used as a tool of external adjustment, and how it was liberalized from the late 1950s into the early 1960s. Although the Japanese government was extensively involved in allocating scarce foreign exchange in the early 1950s, the control system became increasingly flexible over this period. A preliminary analysis based on the behavior of wholesale prices seems to indicate that, along with its liberalization, the restrictive system became less effective as a tool of external adjustment, while the impact of deflationary macroeconomic measures became more dominant.
September 1, 1997
The Egyptian Stabilization Experience: An Analytical Retrospective
Description: This paper analyzes the successful Egyptian stabilization experience during the 1990s, focusing on its distinctive features and contrasting them with the recent experiences of other developing countries. The key policy elements were a large fiscal adjustment, use of an exchange rate anchor that has endured for over six years, supported by prudent monetary policies, and early moves to liberalize interest and exchange markets. The outcomes included the avoidance of an output collapse despite the magnitude of fiscal adjustment; avoidance of stresses on the financial system; reversal of endemic dollarization; financial deepening at the expense of the banking system; and maintenance of external viability despite a lackluster export performance.
September 1, 1997
Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Chile
Description: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.