Working Papers
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
1998
May 1, 1998
Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States
Description: Is the stock market responsive to macroeconomic news? This paper employs the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500 index, the Russell 1000 index, and the Russell 2000 index to examine stock market reactions to a broad list of macroeconomic announcements, including money supply, inflation, employment, housing starts, and trade balances, etc. Several announcements concerning real economic activity that have received little attention in previous research are shown to have a significant impact on stock prices. The paper also presents preliminary evidence for the different reaction to macroeconomic news by small cap stocks and large cap stocks.
May 1, 1998
The Italian Social Protection System: The Poverty of Welfare
Description: Italy’s system of social protection has come under criticism for being fragmented and excessively skewed toward pensioners and “insiders.” After setting up a consolidated presentation of the social security accounts, this paper provides an empirical assessment of the effectiveness of the welfare system, relying on a survey of households’ incomes and wealth. It concludes that, owing to ill-designed targeting mechanisms, less than a quarter of total spending on the welfare instruments under review accrues to families whose own resources fall short of the poverty line. The paper then proposes a new means-testing formula.
May 1, 1998
Current Accounts: What Is Their Relevance for Economic Policymaking?
Description: This paper surveys the main theoretical approaches for analyzing movements in the current account of the balance of payments, from the Mundell-Fleming paradigm to modern intertemporal approaches. It discusses the main implications of these analyses for policymaking, highlighting that modern economic theory views current account imbalances not simply as a reflection of goods market developments, but also as an outcome of intertemporal consumption and investment choices and associated capital market behavior. To reflect on the policy strategies applied under diverse circumstances, the paper analyzes the recent experiences of Italy, Israel, and Pakistan.
May 1, 1998
Government Expenditure Arrears: Securitization and Other Solutions
Description: On occasions, by running arrears, governments have unilaterally borrowed from domestic agents. These agents ended up with implicit claims on the government for which they had no title and that would be honored, at best, on an unspecified future date and for an uncertain value. Having untitled assets limits creditors’ financial management capacity, because they cannot trade or enforce these claims. This paper presents several options for addressing the arrears problem. It recommends that the government recognize its implicit financial liabilities, set a timetable for their clearance, and issue market-negotiable titles (securitize). Several country experiences with securitization operations are documented.
May 1, 1998
Corruption Around the World: Causes, Consequences, Scope, and Cures
Description: Corruption is attracting a lot of attention around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the causes, consequences, and scope of corruption and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from the reform of the state. If certain reforms are not made, corruption is likely to continue to be a problem regardless of actions directly aimed at curtailing it.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 1998.