Working Papers
1998
December 1, 1998
The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model
Description: The paper studies the dynamic allocation effects of tax policy in the context of an overlapping generations model of the Blanchard-Yaari type. The model is extended to allow for endogenous labor supply and three tax instruments: a capital income tax, labor income tax, and consumption tax. Analytical expressions and simple diagrams are used to discuss the impact, transition, and long-run effects of tax policy changes. It is shown that a part of the long-run incidence of capital and consumption taxes falls on capital when households’ horizons are finite, whereas labor would fully bear the burden of these taxes in an infinite horizon model.
December 1, 1998
Fundamental Determinants of Inequality and the Role of Government
Description: This paper discusses the fundamental determinants of inequality. These are identified as world or market forces, social norms, ownership of real and human capital, and the role of government. The change in the relative role of these factors in determining inequality during economic development is analyzed.
December 1, 1998
Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account
Description: This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
December 1, 1998
Export Credit Agencies, Trade Finance and South East Asia
Description: This paper looks at the causes of the reduction in trade finance in South East Asian countries post-1997, with a particular focus on the role of export credit agencies. It concludes that while such agencies did not cause or prolong the problem, they did not contribute significantly to a solution. The paper also suggests some implications from events in South East Asia for both traditional debt-relief mechanisms and for the architecture of the international financial system.
December 1, 1998
The Wage Bargaining Structure in Norway and Sweden and its Influenceon Real Wage Developments
Description: The paper investigates the determinants of wages in the tradables and service sectors in Norway and Sweden. Tradables wages are determined by their own productivity growth whereas service sector wages are influenced by wage growth in the tradables sector. The traditional strong sensitivity of the real wage to changes in the unemployment rate has been virtually eliminated since the recessionary period in the early 1990s in Sweden, and real wages have grown faster than macroeconomic factors alone would suggest. In contrast, real wages have become more sensitive to cyclical conditions in Norway and have grown less rapidly than macroeconomic factors indicate. These changes in the wage process have hindered the development of private sector employment in Sweden but have stimulated private sector employment in Norway.
December 1, 1998
International Capital Flows and National Creditworthiness: Do the Fundamental Things Apply As Time Goes By?
Description: This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to a persistent net importer of capital, Australia, during its post-capital-controls period 1984-98. The results suggest that international capital flows were larger than optimal during the 1980s, but in the 1990s such flows have been broadly consistent with those predicted by the consumption-smoothing approach to the determination of the current account. The paper also discusses the main implications arising from measures of optimal capital flows, and compares them with the implications arising from the key concepts used in the determination of national creditworthiness.
December 1, 1998
Private Saving in Colombia
Description: This paper studies the main determinants of the sharp decline in Colombia’s private saving rate which accompanied the steep deterioration of the country’s external current account deficit in the 1990s. The paper rejects current arguments pointing to a consumption boom and corporate behavior as the main causes of the decline. It concludes that: private consumption, explained mainly by permanent income, has only increased moderately in the 1990s; household behavior—not corporate behavior—determines private saving; and tax increases do not entirely explain the fall of private saving. Thus, reliance on external saving could be reduced by increasing public saving.
December 1, 1998
Managing Capital Flows: Lessons From the Experience of Chile
Description: As a result of the Asian crisis, methods of coping with volatile international capital markets have received considerable attention from observers and policymakers. It has been argued that the imposition by Chile of a nonremunerated reserve requirement on external borrowing played a useful role in the smooth liberalization of its capital account by allowing Chile to deal effectively with short-term capital inflows and thus to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, and that such measures should be adopted by other countries. In light of this, this paper reviews Chile’s experience in managing capital flows and draws lessons for policymakers.
December 1, 1998
The Decline of Traditional Sectors in Israel: The Role of the Exchange Rate and the Minimum Wage
Description: This paper examines the role of exchange rate appreciation and the minimum wage in the relative decline of traditional sectors in Israel. It finds little evidence to indicate that real exchange rate appreciation is primarily responsible for this decline. Rather, the evidence indicates that slower productivity growth in traditional sectors has led to relatively larger increases in unit labor costs compared with high-tech sectors. Although the links are only indicative, the evidence also suggests that the minimum wage has played a role in the relatively faster growth in unit labor costs.
December 1, 1998
The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes: A Theoretical Model
Description: This paper investigates the relationship between the nominal exchange rate regime and the volatility of relative commodity prices. The analysis shows that the relationship depends upon both the market structure and the economic agent’s perception about future exchange rate movements. When the markets for manufactured goods are less competitive than the markets for primary commodities, the volatility of relative commodity prices rises when exchange rate uncertainty increases. If demand for manufactured goods is intertemporally dependent, even a small increase in exchange rate uncertainty can result in potentially large costs in terms of increased relative commodity price instability.