Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1998
December 1, 1998
Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?
Description: Recourse to controls on capital flows among developing economies is generally quite pervasive. This paper examines the structure and determinants of capital controls based on a cross-sectional study of developing and transition economies. It identifies categories of capital transactions that can be aggregated for analytical purposes. Controls are found to be related to the balance of payments, macroeconomic management, market and institutional evolution, prudential and other factors. The relationship with the balance of payments, however, is not robust to simultaneous equation analysis.
December 1, 1998
The Intragenerational Redistributive Effects of Unfunded Pension Programs
Description: This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the intracohort redistributive elements of the U.S. social security system in the context of a computable general equilibrium model. It determines how the well-being of individuals that differ by gender, race, and education is affected by the government’s social security policy. Differences in life expectancy and labor productivity translate into differences in capital accumulation and labor supply distortions that are responsible for the observed welfare difference between individuals of the same age cohort.
December 1, 1998
Correlations Between Real Interest Rates and Output in a Dynamic International Model: Evidence from G-7 Countries
Description: This paper examines the extent to which a dynamic international general equilibrium model can account for observed movements in real interest rates and interest rate differentials. Using data for Group of Seven, the study finds that measured real interest rates are countercyclical in a single country and that the contemporaneous cross-correlations between international real interest differentials and output growth spreads are negative. Predictions of the baseline model are, however, inconsistent with the data. Extending the benchmark model to include habit persistence in consumption improves the match between theory and data.
December 1, 1998
Will Fiscal Policy Be Effective Under EMU?
Description: European Economic and Monetary Union does not envisage creating a central fiscal authority. Monetary and exchange rate policies will be centralized, but fiscal policy will remain a national responsibility, in line with the subsidiarity principle. This paper argues that monetary union will generate pressures for closer economic integration than currently envisaged. Although not a necessity, a more active central role could then be justified on the grounds of allocative efficiency, redistribution, and stabilization. While in the short term enhanced policy coordination may address those pressures satisfactorily, as economic integration proceeds, the case for a central fiscal authority may become stronger.
December 1, 1998
Fixed-Income Markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan-Some Lessons for Emerging Markets
Description: This paper identifies factors that contributed to the development and effectiveness of debt securities markets in the major advanced economies. Government securities markets have benefited from their international orientation—debt management is most effective when it is independent of monetary and exchange rate policies; and financial infrastructures should be patterned on the standards of liquidity, transparency, issuing and trading efficiency, and tax treatment. The same degree of consensus does not exist for corporate debt securities markets. The paper identifies six regulatory and market-created factors that help explain why the U.S. corporate debt market has flourished, while corporate debt securities markets elsewhere have only recently begun to develop.
December 1, 1998
Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia
Description: This paper evaluates monetary policy and its relationship with the exchange rate in five Asian crisis countries. The findings are compared with previous currency crises in recent history. The paper finds no evidence of overly tight monetary policy in the Asian crisis countries in 1997 and early 1998, nor evidence that high interest rates led to weaker exchange rates. The usual trade-off between inflation and output when raising interest rates suggested the need for a softer monetary policy in the crisis countries to combat recession. However, in some countries, corporate balance sheet considerations called for the reversal of overly depreciated currencies through firmer monetary policy.
Notes: This paper is schedule to be presented at the University of Washington conference on the Asian crisis on December 29-30, 1998.
December 1, 1998
Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence
Description: Over the last two decades a number of cross-country empirical studies have been undertaken to assess whether IMF-supported adjustment programs have led to an improved balance of payments and current account balance, lower inflation, and higher growth. These studies use a variety of methodologies and cover different country samples and time periods. This paper critically surveys the evidence yielded by the cross-country studies, paying special attention to the pros and cons of the respective empirical methodologies employed. These studies, particularly the more recent ones, conclude that IMF-supported programs have generally been successful in stabilizing the economy.
December 1, 1998
Economic Determinants of Government Subsidies
Description: The paper studies the economic determinants of government subsidies using panel data for 40 countries over 18 years (from 1975 to 1992) and finds that individual country-specific factors play a sizeable role in determining government subsidies. But it also suggests several characteristics—a small government, a small external current account deficit, and a productive structure geared more toward services and agriculture than manufacturing—may make it easier to keep subsidy expenditures down. The paper also suggests that globalization and the associated increase in openness are not impediments to reducing subsidies. In itself, an IMF-supported adjustment program is found not to be a significant determinant of government subsidy expenditures.