Working Papers
1999
January 1, 1999
Interest Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets: Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk
Description: When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the interest rate arbitrage portfolio—appropriately measured when the basket weights are time-varying? Answers to these questions are provided within a time-varying parameter modeling framework estimated through the Kalman filter. An empirical application is devoted to the experience of the Thai baht currency basket (January 1992–February 1997).
January 1, 1999
Exchange Rate Unification, the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Description: This paper reviews recent developments in the exchange system in the Islamic Republic of Iran and in the real effective exchange rate (REER). It also considers the determinants of the REER in connection with the choice of exchange regime after unification. The study illustrates how economic policy variables and exogenous shocks affect the real exchange rate primarily through the fiscal balance, and consequently, the savings-investment gap. It further illustrates that the appropriate level of REER and its medium-term path depend upon the mix of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies that underpin the evolution of inflation, balance of payments, and productivity growth.
January 1, 1999
Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe
Description: This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970–94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects and country-specific effects. We find significant comovements in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.
January 1, 1999
Enemy of None But a Common Friend of All? An International Perspectiveon the Lender-Of-Last-Resort Function
Description: The paper explores whether and how national lender-of-last-resort practices can be adapted internationally. Nationally, the effectiveness of such practices is based on a blend of resource availability, technical discretion as to the conditions attached, ex ante supervision, and powers of enforcement. Some features of the international environment, however, make it difficult to replicate this structure, which may explain why recent large-scale rescue packages have worked less than satisfactorily. Private contingent credit facilities and IMF lending into arrears in the context of internationally approved, temporary moratoria on foreign debt may nonetheless offer some scope for effective, although limited in aims and resources, international liquidity support, but this would require amending the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.
January 1, 1999
Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
Description: In view of the requirements of Stage 2 of European Monetary Union (EMU) for accession to the European Union, this paper examines the desirability for, and the ability of, the lead candidates in Central and Eastern Europe to participate in the new exchange rate mechanism (ERM2) and eventually in EMU. For most of these countries the benefits are likely to outweigh the cost of participation. After successfully meeting the basic conditions (wage flexibility, prudent fiscal and monetary stance, financial system soundness) for ERM2, each candidate should be able to shadow the euro, with sufficient flexibility around the central rate, prior to formal participation. The paper concludes with a discussion of two policy dilemmas.
January 1, 1999
Privatization in Transition Countries: A Sampling of the Literature
Description: This paper reviews a selection of studies on privatization experiences in transition countries. Empirical studies almost invariably show privatized enterprises outperform state enterprises. Moreover, the literature identifies de novo firms as being clearly the best performers, followed by outsider-dominated firms, while insider-dominated firms are the least efficient among those newly privatized. The importance of de novo firms in enlarging the private sector in transition economies is reviewed, along with the question of whether privatization efforts support or hinder de novo private sector development. Finally, the paper discusses the importance of providing a suitable market environment for successful private-sector development.
January 1, 1999
Offshore Banking: An Analysis of Micro- and Macro-Prudential Issues
Description: The paper takes a closer look at offshore banking—a pervasive practice that has played a role in recent crises. Offshore banking is an increasingly attractive alternative to the sometimes heavily regulated financial markets of emerging economies. From a microeconomic vantage point, offshore banks seem to exploit the risk-return tradeoff by being more profitable than onshore banks, and in many instances also more leveraged. Risks stemming from offshore activities may be easily transmitted onshore with systemic consequences. Current prudential and supervisory frameworks are broadly adequate for risk management if effectively and universally implemented.
January 1, 1999
Central Bank Autonomy, and Inflation and Output Performance in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, 1995-1997
Description: A higher degree of de jure autonomy and accountability of the central banks of the Baltic states, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union appears to be positively correlated with lower average inflation. There also seems to be some positive correlation between greater central bank autonomy and higher average real growth, after the initial period of reforms. Central banks with a higher degree of autonomy and accountability have apparently also reformed their operations more aggressively.
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