Working Papers
1999
May 1, 1999
Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data
Description: This paper uses bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behavior across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analyzed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behavior of third country exchange rates. There is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.
May 1, 1999
Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals
Description: This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess exchange rate volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model in an efficient market.
May 1, 1999
Economic and Legal Considerations of Optimal Privatization: Case Studies of Mortgage Firms (DePfa Group and Fannie Mae)
Description: Successful privatization must be accompanied by the complete removal of privileges and any public policy mission. Bank behavior changes rapidly as profit maximation replaces the bureaucratic objective function. Once privileges are granted, they are difficult to remove. Therefore, privatization is a one-time (nonreversible) operation. The German mortgage bank, DePfa, went through a carefully planned and lengthy privatization process that was successful. Fannie Mae, the U.S. mortgage firm, became a privately owned institution endowed with special privileges, which led to a quasi-monopoly position. This resulted in suboptimal financial sector performance. Fannie Mae’s special privileges have proven resistant to reform efforts.
May 1, 1999
Privatization, Social Impact, and Social Safety Nets
Description: Privatization promotes economic efficiency and growth, thereby reinforcing macroeconomic adjustment. In the short run, however, it can lead to job losses and wage cuts for workers and higher prices for consumers. This paper discusses these impacts and the fiscal implications of privatization. It then reviews various methods of privatization and finds that public sales and auctions can have more negative effects on workers but maximize the government’s revenue gains. Policymakers’ options for mitigating the social impact of privatization are surveyed, and experiences under adjustment programs reviewed.
May 1, 1999
Price and Monetary Dynamics Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes
Description: According to theory, inflation persistence should have less variance across countries under pegged than floating exchange rates, but not necessarily a lower mean. The paper tests this prediction on postwar data for OECD countries. After allowing for the upward bias to persistence estimates created by shifts in mean inflation, the paper finds persistence has a greater spread (but not a higher mean) in the floating-rate period, as predicted by theory. Monetary growth has been much less accommodative of inflation under floating rates, most probably because of the shifts in monetary policy rather than those in exchange rate regime.
May 1, 1999
Survey of Literature on Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models
Description: A stable money demand forms the cornerstone in formulating and conducting monetary policy. Consequently, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted in both industrial and developing countries to evaluate the determinants and the stability of the money demand function. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical work, tracing the contributions of several researchers beginning from the classical economists, and explains relevant empirical issues in modeling and estimating money demand functions. Notably, it summarizes the salient features of a number of recent studies that applied cointegration/error-correction models in the 1990s, and it features a bibliography to aid in research on demand for money.
May 1, 1999
Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia
Description: This paper tests a version of Barro’s tax-smoothing model, which assumes intertemporal optimization by a government seeking to minimize the distortionary costs of taxation, using Pakistan and Sri Lankan data for 1956-95 and 1964-97, respectively. The empirical results indicate that Pakistan’s fiscal behavior is consistent with tax smoothing, but not Sri Lanka’s. Moreover, fiscal behavior in both countries was dominated by a stagnation of revenues, large tax-tilting-induced deficits, and the consequent accumulation of excessive public liabilities. Analysis of the time-series characteristics of tax-tilting behavior indicates that for both countries the stock of public liabilities is unsustainable under unchanged fiscal policies.
May 1, 1999
Macroeconomic Conditions and Import Surcharges in Selected Transition Economies
Description: Analysis on macroeconomic determinants of protection in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland, while subject to many caveats, suggests that appreciation of the real exchange rate was the main macroeconomic determinant of trade policy reversals in the 1990s. This suggests that balance of payments difficulties may have been used as an excuse for protection. The analysis also suggests that greater exchange rate flexibility and tighter fiscal policies could have been used instead of import surcharges to deal with external imbalances. The surcharges may only have aggravated the external balance by slowing down exports and restructuring of production.
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