Working Papers
1999
November 1, 1999
Political Economy Aspects of Trade and Financial Liberalization: Implications for Sequencing
Description: This paper integrates a two-period overlapping generations model with a standard two-sector Hecksher-Ohlin trade model and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on domestic investment in the exportable and importable sectors, the political economy linkages between trade and financial liberalization, and the implications for sequencing. Under certain assumptions financial liberalization leads to a movement of resources in the opposite direction to that implied by trade liberalization, thus defeating one of the objectives of tariff reform. When political economy linkages are taken into account, however, the indirect effects of financial liberalization may offset the direct effects and encourage a movement of resources in the desired direction.
November 1, 1999
Linkages Among Asset Markets in the United States: Tests in a Bivariate GARCH Framework
Description: This paper develops a bivariate GARCH model that allows for time-varying conditional correlations and simultaneous testing of two Granger-causal linkages: the impact of return volatility in a market on intermarket correlation and the impact of return volatility in one market on the volatility of another. Using daily data from stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets in the United States, the paper finds evidence of each form of linkage. Furthermore, the conditional correlations change over time and exhibit considerable persistence. The estimated time-varying conditional correlations provide insight into the nature of the stock market crash of 1987.
November 1, 1999
On the Fast Track to EU Accession: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges for Estonia
Description: This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact and policy challenges related to Estonia’s prospective accession to the EU and its potential adoption of the euro. Our analysis of the trade, financial, and fiscal channels includes a model-based illustrative scenario using MULTIMOD. We conclude that the welfare enhancing effects for Estonia of further EU integration are likely to outweigh the drawbacks of more pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that could accompany this process. To smooth Estonia’s accession-related adjustment, its fiscal and structural policies should be geared toward mitigating domestic demand pressures, promoting saving, and ensuring efficient public investment.
November 1, 1999
Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
Description: This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
November 1, 1999
Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach
Description: This paper develops an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also captures the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. Correlations of individual country fluctuations with the common component provide evidence of a “world business cycle” and a distinct European common component. The results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the post–Bretton Woods period.
November 1, 1999
Regulation of Withdrawals in Individual Account Systems
Description: Funded mandatory pension systems based on individual accounts are spreading around the world. With the maturation of these systems, regulating the withdrawal of retirement savings will become increasingly important. Government regulation of withdrawals should mandate the purchase of inflation-indexed life annuities exceeding income available from government welfare programs for the retiree and potential survivors. Proper functioning of insurance markets does not, however, require annuitizing the entire account balance. Instead, more flexibility for the choice of withdrawals could be permitted for any remaining funds, helping to tailor income streams to individual needs and living arrangements.
November 1, 1999
Bank Rating Changes and Bank Stock Returns—Puzzling Evidence from the Emerging Markets
Description: This paper examines the performance of emerging market bank stocks around the time of rating changes by major international agencies. The data suggest that downgrades on average have followed periods of negative cumulative abnormal returns for banks, although upgrades have not followed periods of positive returns. More important, stock prices either do not respond to rating changes or respond in the opposite direction to what would be expected if announcements conveyed value-relevant information. The paper concludes that there are limits to the extent that supervisors in emerging markets can rely on market participants to monitor the safety and soundness of banks.
November 1, 1999
Foreign Investment in Colombia’s Financial Sector
Description: This study analyzes foreign investment in Colombia’s financial system, chronicling major changes in legislation, describing how investment flows evolved over time, and comparing performance of foreign–owned versus domestic banks. Panel data estimations reveal that financial liberalization in general had a beneficial impact on bank behavior in Colombia. Although the positive contribution of foreign entry may be overstated in recent studies by not controlling for other liberalization factors, foreign (and domestic) entry beginning in 1990 did improve bank behavior by enhancing operative efficiency and competition. However, this came at the expense of a deterioration in the loan quality of domestic banks.
November 1, 1999
Why Has Inflation in the United States Remained So Low? Reassessing the Importance of Labor Costs and the Price of Imports
Description: This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during 1995–98, despite strong growth and high levels of employment. Our results identify three important variables: declines in import prices, a slowdown in the growth of nonwage labor compensation, and a decline in labor costs. We also reassess the role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation.
November 1, 1999
Idiosyncratic Risk: An Empirical Analysis, with Implications for the Risk of Relative-Value Trading Strategies
Description: This paper models the idiosyncratic or asset-specific return of an asset as the return on a portfolio that is long in that asset and short in other assets in the same class, thereby removing the common components of returns. This is the type of “hedged” position that is held by relative-value investors. Weekly returns data for seven different asset classes suggest that idiosyncratic risk is: higher at times of large return outcomes for the asset class as a whole; positively autocorrelated; and correlated across different asset classes. The implications for risk management are discussed.