Working Papers
2000
March 1, 2000
Social Capital and Civil Society
Description: Social capital is an instantiated informal norm that promotes cooperation between individuals. In the economic sphere it reduces transaction costs, and in the political sphere it promotes the kind of associational life that is necessary for the success of limited government and modern democracy. Although social capital often arises from iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma games, it also is a byproduct of religion, tradition, shared historical experience, and other types of cultural norms. Thus whereas awareness of social capital is often critical for understanding development, it is difficult to generate through public policy.
March 1, 2000
Caribbean Approaches to Economic Stabilization
Description: In the late 1980s Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago found themselves in severe economic difficulties. Their ensuing economic strategies were all market-based, featured fiscal contraction and trade liberalization, multilateral support loans and, later on, tax and financial sector reforms. However, exchange rate, monetary and public sector wage policies varied greatly. Choice of exchange rate regime was not as fundamental to successful stabilization as was fiscal action, complemented by, but without undue reliance on, monetary policy. The policies employed to reduce debt and to diversify the economic bases also help t lessen vulnerabilities to future economic shocks.
March 1, 2000
Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies
Description: This paper analyzes the importance of developing market-enhancing institutions for restoring economic growth in transition economies during 1991–98. The paper’s main finding is that the development of an institutional framework has indeed a significant positive impact on growth, but that progress in achieving macroeconomic stabilization and implementing broad-based economic reforms remain the key determinants of growth in transition economies.
March 1, 2000
Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements
Description: The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers crises which culminated in large currency depreciation as well as those in which there was a substantial loss of foreign reserves. The analysis involves comparing the monthly or annual pattern of movement of the various macroeconomic and financial variables around the time of crisis to their behavior during tranquil periods. The robustness of the results is tested by subdividing the sample into different types of currency crises and carrying out a similar analysis for each.
March 1, 2000
Central Banks Use of Derivatives and Other Contingent Liabilities: Analytical Issues and Policy Implications
Description: Whereas some central bank derivatives and other contingent liabilities arise from anomalous circumstances, there are a number of positive reasons that explain their popularity. After analyzing the rationale for these operations, we stress that most of these operations, being off-balance sheet, increase the risk and reduce the transparency of central bank accounts. This in turn makes more difficult the assessment of the financial position of the monetary authority and, by implication, of the macroeconomic conditions of the country. To deal with this issue, we suggest a comprehensive portfolio approach that values, in an economic sense, all assets and liabilities of the central bank.
March 1, 2000
Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden
Description: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Notes: Sweta Chaman Saxena is from the University of Pittsburgh.
March 1, 2000
Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises
Description: This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industrial countries. A panel probit estimation finds these economic indicators to be significant for emerging market countries during the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises. In particular, the indicators of vulnerability to international financial spillover (common creditor) and of financial fragility (reserve adequacy) are highly significant and appear to explain the apparent regional concentration of these crises. Exchange rate regimes and capital controls, however, do not seem to matter.
March 1, 2000
Unionization and Strategic Trade Policy
Description: This paper examines the effect of unionization on welfare and trade policy in a model of duopolists competing in a third market. It shows that the traditional result that the presence of a union necessitates a stronger strategic trade policy to reach the optimal level of welfare depends on the mode of competition. With Bertrand duopolists, a union can be welfare-improving; it can also lead to a weaker trade policy, or even reverse the direction of the optimal policy. The results highlight the importance for trade policy of understanding the nature of firm behavior and the institutional features of the labor market.
March 1, 2000
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review
Description: Policymakers often express concern that herding by financial market participants destabilizes markets and increases the fragility of the financial system. This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It addresses the following questions: What precisely do we mean by herding? What could be the causes of herd behavior? What success have existing studies had in identifying such behavior? And what effect does herding have on financial markets?
March 1, 2000
Toward a Framework for Systemic Liquidity Policy
Description: International policy efforts to strengthen financial systems have highlighted the role of liquidity. This paper explores a framework to assess arrangements for market liquidity and lays out elements of systemic liquidity policy. Robust arrangements for liquidity provide confidence to market participants that liquidity can be mobilized on demand in a predictable and transparent manner. These are crucial to resilience and effective monetary operations. Arrangements include several prudential and institutional elements and national authorities have an important role in promoting their adoption. A survey of 14 countries and two in-depth studies of Mexico and Argentina are included for illustration.