Working Papers
2000
June 1, 2000
Inequality, Transfers and Growth: New Evidence From the Economic Transition in Poland
Description: This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that inequality in Poland increased markedly during the economic transition. Income and consumption inequality actually declined in 1990-92 and rose only moderately above pre-transition levels by 1997. However, inequality in labor earnings increased markedly and consistently during 1990-97. Social transfer mechanisms, including pensions, helped mitigate increases in overall inequality and poverty. More importantly, these transfer mechanisms were well-designed to reduce political resistance to market-oriented reforms in the early years of transition, paving the way for rapid growth. Cross-country evidence from transition economies is consistent with this interpretation and with recent literature suggesting that inequality-reducing redistribution can enhance growth.
June 1, 2000
Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account
Description: This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.
June 1, 2000
The Corporate Sector Dynamics of Systemic Financial Crises
Description: This paper puts together a set of stylized facts of the corporate sector dynamics of systemic financial crises based on recent crisis episodes with a view to identifying the key issues and their policy implications. The evidence suggests that corporate crisis dynamics arc triggered by a cutoff of capital inflows and are amplified into an historically severe recession by exchange rate depreciation, high interest rates, and current account adjustment. The adverse consequences of these dynamics can be forestalled and assuaged by policies that improve monitoring of the corporate sector and boost nonbank sources of corporate financing.
June 1, 2000
Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries
Description: The main purposes of this paper are to review the operational modalities and experience of oil funds currently in place in Norway, Chile (copper), the State of Alaska, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Oman, and to draw some preliminary conclusions on their contribution to enhance fiscal management. The outcome so far of their experience has been mixed, with differences among countries reflecting the variety of objectives attached to the funds, the challenges in adhering to established rules, the institutional set-up. and the soundness of the overall fiscal discipline in each country (or state).
June 1, 2000
Bidding Behavior in Treasury Bill Auctions: Evidence From Pakistan
Description: Behavior in the first three years of auctions for Pakistani treasury bills is studied. Bidding strategies rapidly converged to a consistent pattern after the auctions started in 1991. Factors are identified that influenced the expected profitability of auction participation, which was on average low and did not differ between types of bidders. Prices bid are found to reflected both ‘buy and sell’ and ‘buy and hold’ strategies, and were affected by risk considerations and bidder-specific variables. The Pakistani experience suggests the robustness of auctions as a market-based allocation mechanism, and their value in public debt management.
June 1, 2000
A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Corruption in Bureaucracies
Description: This paper examines interactions between self-interested agents in a two-tier government hierarchy, consisting of a central authority and bureaucrats in a two-stage game, where the actions of agents affect private sector allocations. Conditions under which lower-tier corruption arises as an equilibrium characterization of the game are identified. If bureaucratic corruption sufficiently reduces the tax base, policies that deter corruption may be optimal. When monitoring is expensive or ineffective, lower-level corruption arises as equilibrium. Tax farming and the sale of offices can occur in these equilibria. In addition, strategic complementarities between bureaucrats may give rise to multiple equilibria.
June 1, 2000
Indonesia: Implementing National Policies in a Decentralized Context: Special Purpose Programs to Protect the Poor
Description: In the context of continuing adjustments in the economy, the Government of Indonesia proposes to bring energy prices closer to long run marginal cost, while adequately compensating the poor. We focus on the constraints on central government policy objectives towards the poor as decentralization takes effect. However, local governments currently lack credible social protection instruments and their objectives usually do not match those of the center, which imposes constraints on program designs. We discuss the suitability of a number of safety net mechanisms in a decentralized context and draw policy implications.
June 1, 2000
Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Closed-Form Solutions and Some Empirical Evidence
Description: This paper examines the impact of productivity shocks on real exchange rate fluctuations in a dynamic international general equilibrium model with nontraded goods. The model predicts a close association between relative technology shocks and bilateral real exchange rate movements. Empirical results based on the data for Group of Seven countries are consistent with the predicted theoretical correlations. Using Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration tests the study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between bilateral real exchange rates and international productivity differentials in the traded and nontraded sectors.
June 1, 2000
Aftermath of Banking Crises: Effectson Real and Monetary Variables
Description: In this paper a simple optimizing model is developed to analyze the implications of a banking crisis. Banks are incorporated by assuming that they intermediate funds between firms and households. It is shown that when depositors perceive the quality of deposits to have deteriorated, they switch from deposits to cash. Because of the higher cost of liquidity, consumption, M2 and the M2 multiplier decline, interest rates on deposits and loans increase and output contracts. The findings of the paper match the key stylized facts of banking crises.
June 1, 2000
Czech Koruna and Polish Zloty Currency Options: Information Contnent and Eu-Accession Implications
Description: Currency option implied volatility predicts more efficiently exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna, reflecting differences in the frequency of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. A GARCH model shows a positive impact of the introduction of the Euro on exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty (negative for the Czech koruna), related to its larger exposure to external shocks. For countries in transition to Euro integration, the implied trade-off between isolation from shocks and efficient signaling must be addressed based on the risk of exchange rate misalignment at the time of monetary conversion.