Working Papers
2001
March 1, 2001
Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability
Description: The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare.
March 1, 2001
PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector
Description: This paper investigates the impact of the distribution sector on the real exchange rate, controlling for the Balassa-Samuelson effect, as well as other macro variables. Long-run coefficients are estimated using a panel dynamic OLS estimator. The main result is that an increase in the productivity and competitiveness of the distribution sector with respect to foreign countries leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate, similarly to what a relative increase in the domestic productivity of tradables does. This contrasts with the result that one would expect by considering the distribution sector as belonging to the non-tradable sector. One explanation may lie in the use of the services from the distribution sector in the tradable sector. Our results also contribute to explaining the so-called PPP puzzle.
March 1, 2001
Social Sector Reform in Transition Countries
Description: During the transition process, many existing social sector institutions and policies were significantly eroded and their underlying character changed. As a result, they often do not redistribute to the poorest, nor generally serve the role of facilitating economic change. Social sector reforms have therefore become necessary for reasons of social welfare as well as economic growth. The analysis of eleven transition countries—comprising some of the most advanced as well as some of the poorest transition economies—shows that almost all countries have started to undertake reforms; however, their individual efforts vary. Reform does not only stand for cutting back, but also requires in some cases a building up and in others a redesign of social safety nets; it needs to address insurance issues, budgetary transfer programs, the performance of the health and education sector, as well as the labor market regime and the approach to tax administration.
March 1, 2001
Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?
Description: Could a West African monetary union (either of the non-CFA countries, or all ECOWAS members) be an effective "agency of restraint" on fiscal policies? We discuss how monetary union could affect fiscal discipline and the arguments for explicit fiscal restraints considered in the European Monetary Union literature, and their applicability to West Africa. The empirical evidence, EMU literature, and CFA experience suggest that monetary union could create the temptation for fiscal profligacy through prospects of a bailout, or costs diluted through the membership. Thus, a West African monetary union could promote fiscal discipline only if the hands of the fiscal authorities are also tied by a strong set of fiscal restraints.
March 1, 2001
Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs
Description: This paper argues that the IMF's traditional monetary conditionality-a ceiling on net domestic assets of the central bank and a floor on its net international reserves-should be adapted in IMF-supported adjustment programs with countries which have a framework of explicit inflation targets for the implementation of monetary policy. This adaptation should aim at enhancing correspondence and consistency between the monetary objectives of the central bank and the targets established under the IMF-supported adjustment program, as well as between the different instruments used to achieve the policy objectives and targets. The paper reviews various general options in this regard, and, using the case of Brazil as an example, demonstrates how these options may be implemented in practice.
March 1, 2001
In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina
Description: Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.
March 1, 2001
What Drives Contagion: Trade Neighborhood, or Financial Links?
Description: This paper presents evidence on the relative importance of alternative contagion channels during the Thai, Russian, and Brazilian crises. Results show that when crises are measured by changes in sovereign bond spreads, financial competition seems to explain almost all contagion episodes. However, when crises are measured by stock market returns, trade links and neighborhood effects appear to be relevant contagion channels during the Thai and Brazilian crises, while financial competition remains the only relevant channel in the case of the Russian crisis.
March 1, 2001
Euro-Area Banking At the Crossroads
Description: This paper analyses the process of disintermediation, the progress in consolidation, the impact of new technologies, and the role of ownership and control structures for the euro area banking sector. The impact of these trends on competition policy, "too big to fail" concerns, and financial stability is investigated. In this setting, the paper endorses stronger cross-border coordination among supervisory authorities but notes that more formal cross-border arrangements through supranational agencies seem, at this stage, premature. However, an increased capacity to perform centralized market surveillance, building on domestic supervisory information, is needed to ensure the efficiency and stability of euro-area financial markets.
March 1, 2001
A Cointegration Analysis of Broad Money Demand in Cameroon
Description: This paper applies cointegration analysis and error-correction modeling to investigate the behavior of broad money demand in Cameroon over 1963/64-1993/94. The cointegrated VAR analysis first describes an open-economy model of money, prices, income, and a vector of rates of return, within which three steady state relations are identified: a stable money demand function, an excess aggregate demand relationship, and the uncovered interest rate relation under fixed exchange rates and perfect capital mobility. Empirical support is thereafter provided for both PPP and the international Fisher parity between Cameroon and France, and the stability of the short-run dynamics of the broad money demand function is confirmed.
March 1, 2001
Toward a Framework for Assessing Data Quality
Description: This paper describes work in progress on data quality, an important element of greater transparency in economic policy and financial stability. Data quality is being dealt with systematically by the IMF through the development of data quality assessment frameworks complementing the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). The aim is to improve the quality of data provided by countries to the IMF; and to assess evenhandedly the quality of countries’ data in Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes. The frameworks bring together best practices including those of the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics.