Working Papers
2002
February 1, 2002
Issues in Global Natural Gas: A Primer and Analysis
Description: This paper discusses the rising profile of natural gas in global energy, factors constraining its further development, the gas contracting process, and the absence of a global market, which is analyzed in the context of the economic rent in the gas price and the opaque nature of gas contracts. A proposal for rationalizing the trade to ease these constraints is offered. Gas pricing, and factors driving demand are also analyzed using evidence from the literature. FDI can help to monetize some of the 'stranded' gas reserves, but success would depend on an investor-friendly climate, including appropriate tariff regimes in the domestic markets.
February 1, 2002
The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa
Description: The paper provides an analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector, public education, the supply of labor and the returns to training in nine Southern African countries. Drawing on the preceding sections, it assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income in a neoclassical growth framework. HIV/AIDS affects per capita income mainly through its impact of human capital, as measured by the supply of experienced workers. Other factors include the impact on capital accumulation, on education, and on total factor productivity.
February 1, 2002
Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia
Description: This paper develops a theory of inflation inertia based on forward looking staggered price setting in the nontradable goods sector of a small open economy. Unlike current theories of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses in nontradables There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. Gains exceed losses for most calibrations. The optimal steady state is the Friedman rule.
February 1, 2002
The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited
Description: The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum (1994) to show how such a correlation can arise from the response of monetary policy to output and inflation, which are in turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the forward premium being a biased predictor of short-term exchange rate movements; the bias decreases, however, as the horizon of the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for exchange rate changes contains variables other than the interest differential, providing a justification for "eclectic" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a building block for structural models.
February 1, 2002
Assessing Accuracy and Reliability: A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics
Description: Both national accounts and balance of payments are based on multiple, complex source data and typically undergo several routine revisions as more and better source data are incorporated into the final estimates. As a result, neither dataset can be subjected directly to the usual statistical measures of sampling biases, variances, and other measurement error properties. In this context, this note, which is addressed to those interested in these datasets and others, explores four approaches that shed light on the accuracy and reliability of these datasets: examination of statistical discrepancies, comparison with other data, analysis of revisions, and judgmental evaluation.
February 1, 2002
Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis
Description: This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.
February 1, 2002
Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality
Description: This paper develops an overlapping agents model with age-specific mortality rates. The analytical framework also nests Blanchard's (1985) "perpetual youth" model as a special, though perhaps not realistic, case. With age specific mortality rates, youth is "fleeting." Using standard hyperbolic functions, the model with fleeting youth is able to closely replicate the empirical relation between age and mortality. The comparative implications for deficit finance are also examined and age-specific mortality is shown to alter the non-Ricardian properties of the model.
0001
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001