Working Papers
2002
May 1, 2002
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets
Description: This study uses bivariate extremal dependence measures, based on the number of equity return co-exceedances in two markets, to quantify both negative and positive equity returns contagion in mature and emerging equity markets during the past decade. The results indicate (a) higher contagion for negative returns than for positive returns; (b) a secular increase in contagion in Latin America not matched in other regions; (c) global increases in contagion following the 1998 financial crises; and (d) that the use of simple correlations as a proxy for contagion could be misleading, as the former exhibit low correlation with extremal dependence measures of contagion.
May 1, 2002
The Estonian Currency Board: Its Introduction and Role in the Early Success of Estonia's Transition to a Market Economy
Description: This paper reviews the history of the introduction of the Estonian kroon under a currency board arrangement. On June 20, 1992, Estonia became the first country from the former Soviet Union to abandon the Russian ruble and introduce its own currency. The paper looks at the factors behind this decision and discusses the implementation of the currency reform. It then assesses the economic impact of the reform and also compares Estonia's experience with that of its Baltic neighbors. It concludes that although the currency board arrangement made an important contribution to the early success of Estonia's economic stabilization and reform program, the underlying financial and structural policies were crucial for that success.
May 1, 2002
Why Is It So Hard to Finance Budget Deficits? Problems of a Developing Country
Description: This paper examines possible ways for a developing country to finance budget deficits from domestic resources. It does so by analyzing Pakistan's National Savings Scheme (NSS). The NSS has a number of unusual attributes, and its impact upon the economy of Pakistan is not clear, but given Pakistan's chronic fiscal difficulties, the NSS is of great importance in financing the public sector deficit. We use an econometric model to analyze the relationship between the demands for NSS deposits and various other financial instruments, in particular, bank deposits, and foreign-currency deposits. We conclude that NSS and bank deposits are net substitutes, as are NSS and foreign-currency deposits. Bank deposits and foreign-currency deposits, however, seem to be neither substitutes nor complements. Also, the estimated income elasticity of the demand for bank deposits is negative, while that of foreign-currency deposits is positive, and that of NSS is not significantly different from zero. Finally, there is evidence that foreign-currency deposits are a net substitute for NSS deposits. Thus, there is some empirical evidence that foreign currency deposits have absorbed part of the demand for NSS deposits. Accordingly, the availability of foreign-currency deposits may have reduced the ability of the government to finance itself.
May 1, 2002
Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon
Description: This paper studies the prospects for sustainable growth and economic development in Gabon, in the face of a severe decline in its main source of income and growth, i.e. oil. A simple Computable General Equilibrium model is used to simulate the development of the non-oil economy under various assumptions. The results of the simulations underline Gabon's dependence on foreign financing-especially private-and its vulnerability to variations in oil prices. The potential role of an income stabilization fund is also discussed.
May 1, 2002
Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Highly Dollarized Economy: The Case of Cambodia
Description: Cambodia became dollarized suddenly in the early 1990s, as a result of massive dollar inflows stemming from a postconflict situation. Considering that the amount of dollars in circulation is unusually high, we attempt to estimate the true degree of dollarization empirically. Our results show that Cambodia has been virtually fully dollarized since 1995. Against a background of severe institutional limitations, the authorities have implemented in recent years policies akin to those of a de facto currency board arrangement, in particular with respect to fiscal discipline. The paper concludes that this policy mix has been appropriate for Cambodia's circumstances.
May 1, 2002
Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy
Description: There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yield spread in the government securities market to movements in the index of industrial production. The results show that yield spread could, inter alia, be considered as a leading indicator of industrial activity in India.
May 1, 2002
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: Analysis of firm-level panel data from three sub-Saharan African economies shows that exporting manufacturers have a total factor productivity premium of 11-28 percent. The data do not allow testing of whether these premiums are caused by selection of more efficient producers into exporting or by learning-by-exporting. By thinking about the mechanisms behind selectivity and learning, however, our finding of higher premiums for direct exporters and exporters to outside Africa could be interpreted as being consistent with learning-by-exporting effects. However, if learning-by-exporting is indeed present in the data, we cannot disentangle its effect on productivity from those of more traditionally recognized channels of international technology diffusion.
May 1, 2002
Family Attachment and the Decision to Move by Race
Description: Blacks in the United States have a lower geographic mobility rates than whites even though they have several characteristics that are usually associated with high rates of mobility: high unemployment, low rate of home ownership, low marriage rate and settlement in areas where unemployment is high. This paper tests the relevance of family ties in explaining mobility by using proxies that are constructed using data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics, covering the period 1977–88. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation techniques, and explain the puzzle of the role played by the nuclear and the extended family in the decision to move.
May 1, 2002
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia
Description: This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis into monetary policy transmission mechanisms and inflation in the Slovak Republic. The estimated vector autoregression (VAR) model suggests that inflation is determined by changes in foreign prices, the exchange rate, and wage costs, with a modest effect of aggregate demand, in line with theory for small, open economies. Monetary policy is shown to affect inflation via these channels. Changes in money supply seem to have a modest but rapid impact on prices. The measured effect of interest rate changes is modest and gradual, although it appears to have become more important in recent years.
May 1, 2002
The Choice Between External and Domestic Debt in Financing Budget Deficits: The Case of Central and West African Countries
Description: The paper reviews the principles and practical considerations involved in the choice between foreign and domestic financing of fiscal deficits, and derives a series of recommendations broadly applicable to Central and West African countries. The paper develops a simple analytical framework and shows that highly concessional external debt is usually a superior choice to domestic debt in terms of financial costs and risks, even in the face of a probable devaluation. The paper stresses the importance of the availability and terms of financing, and of overall long-term debt sustainability. It concludes that these countries need to take a gradual approach to domestic debt financing, beginning with the issuance of short-term bills, and ensure a solid track record of meeting their debt-service obligations.