Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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2002
June 1, 2002
In Finance, Size Matters
Description: This study investigates the relationship between production efficiency in financial intermediation and financial system size. The study predicts and tests for the existence of "systemic scale economies" (SSEs), whereby value-maximizing intermediaries operating in large systems are expected to have lower production costs and lower costs of risk absorption and reputation signaling than intermediaries operating in small systems. The study investigates different channels through which the SSEs work their effects through the intermediaries and estimates such effects using a large banking data panel. The study shows strongly supporting evidence in favor of SSEs. It also finds that the institutional environment, the risk environment, and market concentration affect significantly the production efficiency of financial intermediaries.
June 1, 2002
Aid and Fiscal Management
Description: This paper focuses on the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal management in aid-receiving countries. Despite the declining share of aid in budgets of donor countries, aid continues to play an important role in many developing countries. The paper first discusses the implications of aid in the economy as a whole and highlights the possibility of Dutch-disease effects of aid. Second, it discusses the implications of aid for short-term fiscal policy management?in particular, how actual or anticipated changes in aid receipts should be reflected in government spending.
June 1, 2002
Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia
Description: A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation. We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia.
June 1, 2002
Suggestions for Alternative Measures of Budget Balance for South Africa
Description: The following hypothesis was set and tested by this study: is the conventional budget balance, as generally accepted and used, still relevant for South Africa? The paper found that several possible alternatives are available but each must be viewed from the standpoint of their applicability to the South African context. Several were not suitable for South Africa-only because of a serious lack of available data needed to make them operational. The paper also highlights the need for reforms in government financial information in South Africa.
June 1, 2002
On the Origins of the Fleming-Mundell Model
Description: Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fleming-Mundell model?
June 1, 2002
The Potential Role for Securitizing Public Sector Revenue Flows: An Application to the Philippines
Description: Since the mid-1980s, the securitization of future flow receivables has grown in importance as a financing alternative for the public sector. In a world of perfect capital markets, there appears to be little rationale-in terms of reducing the average cost of public sector financing-to resort to secured borrowing. However, for many developing countries, financial markets are far from perfect. In particular, there may be an important role for secured financing where increased uncertainty or financial market volatility leads to credit rationing driven by information asymmetries. Secured financing, however, does not provide a free lunch. Such arrangements subordinate existing and future creditors and, as a result, may raise the cost of future borrowing. In addition, high transaction costs, the thin market in secured instruments, the risk of legal challenges, and reduced budget and debt management flexibility may offset the cost advantage of public sector securitization.
June 1, 2002
The Challenge of Fiscal Decentralization in Transition Countries
Description: This paper examines key aspects of the ongoing decentralization process in transition economies and identifies areas where the present systems can have potentially adverse impacts on both service delivery and macroeconomic performance. We discuss three critical principles of a sound and efficient decentralized fiscal system-and then show the contrasts between these and actual trends and policies in transition countries.
June 1, 2002
Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting
Description: This paper provides some practical advice on establishing initial conditions in support of an inflation-targeting monetary framework. These conditions are divided into four areas: a mandate in support of an inflation objective and accountability for achieving this objective; macroeconomic stability; a sufficiently well-developed and stable financial system; and effective policy implementation tools. The measures taken by countries to meet these conditions are also reviewed.