Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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2002
November 1, 2002
The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth
Description: There is increasing recognition that corruption has substantial, adverse effects on economic growth. But if the costs of corruption are so high, why don’t countries strive to improve their institutions and root out corruption? Why do many countries appear to be stuck in a vicious circle of widespread corruption and low economic growth, often accompanied by ever-changing governments through revolutions and coups? A possible explanation is that when corruption is widespread, individuals do not have incentives to fight it even if everybody would be better off without it. Two models involving strategic complementarities and multiple equilibria attempt to illustrate this formally.
November 1, 2002
The Challenge of Diversification in the Caribbean
Description: It is typically assumed that countries in the Caribbean suffer from a lack of output and export diversification. Contrary to this popular perception, we find no evidence that output variability is higher in Caribbean countries than in larger, more diversified, developing economies. In addition, we find no evidence that export earnings are more volatile in the Caribbean economies than elsewhere. In fact, export earnings are quite stable in the Caribbean, reflecting the fact the region is rather unique in that most of its export earnings are generated from service exports, which tend to be considerably less volatile than goods exports.
November 1, 2002
Growth-Financial Intermediation Nexus in China
Description: This paper studies the relationship between economic growth and financial development in China during the post-1978 reform period. Recent studies, based on cross-country data, have found a positive association between these two variables. We find that while a positive correlation between growth and financial intermediation exists in China, the association is more apparent than real. The nonstate sector, which contributed most to China's remarkable growth during this period, did not use the domestic financial system in any substantial way for financing. The same appears to be true for the faster-growing provinces. Compared to foreign investment, domestic private credit played a relatively small, although statistically significant, role in financing the nonstate sector and fast-growing provinces.
November 1, 2002
Islamic Financial Institutions and Products in the Global Financial System: Key Issues in Risk Management and Challenges Ahead
Description: The provision and use of financial services and products that conform to Islamic religious principles pose special challenges for the identification, measurement, monitoring, and control of underlying risks. Effective and efficient risk management in Islamic financial institutions has assumed particular importance as they endeavor to cope with the challenges of globalization. This requires the development of not only a more suitable regulatory framework, but also new financial instruments and institutional arrangements to provide an enabling operational environment for Islamic finance. The recent establishment of the Islamic Financial Services Board, facilitated by the IMF, addresses these needs.
November 1, 2002
Quantifying the Impact of Tradeon Wages: The Role of Nontraded Goods
Description: This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.
November 1, 2002
User Payments for Basic Education in Low-Income Countries
Description: Insufficient resources and inadequate public expenditure management often prevent governments in low-income countries from providing quality basic education free of charge. User payments by parents are an alternative means of financing basic education. This paper assesses how user payments affect educational opportunities and quality of education for children of poor families in low-income countries. Conditions are identified under which user payments can or cannot improve educational outcomes. User payments, whether taking the form of compulsory benefit taxation or voluntary user fees, are a temporary solution and second-best compared with free-access, publicly financed quality education that is consistent with macroeconomic stability.