Working Papers
2003
January 1, 2003
An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences
Description: This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.
January 1, 2003
Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?
Description: The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.
January 1, 2003
Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems
Description: This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.
January 1, 2003
Political Economy of Oil-Revenue Sharing in a Developing Country: Illustrations from Nigeria
Description: Control over natural resource revenues is a contentious, politically divisive issue in most developing countries-especially for oil production. A typical policy response of the center in such cases has been to introduce revenue sharing arrangements. Such measures have generally not assuaged the aspirations of the oil-producing regions and have exposed them to volatility in their revenue flows that they are generally unable to cope with. An alternative is to assign more stable revenue bases to the regional administrations, together with a general-purpose transfer system that incorporates a floor. This acts as an insurance mechanism for the regional administrations and facilitates the stable provision of public services in the oil-production regions, as well as the possibility of redistribution. We use the recent history of oil-revenue sharing in Nigeria to illustrate the propositions.
January 1, 2003
Income Inequality and Redistributive Government Spending
Description: The paper examines empirically the question of whether more unequal societies spend more on income redistribution than their more egalitarian counterparts. Theoretical arguments on this issue are inconclusive. The political economy literature suggests that redistributive spending is higher in unequal societies due to median voter preferences. Alternatively, it can be argued that unequal societies may spend less on redistribution because of capital market imperfections. Based on different data sources, the cross-country evidence reported in this paper suggests that more unequal societies do spend less on redistribution.
January 1, 2003
Toward a Statutory Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons From Corporate Bankruptcy Practice Around the World
Description: This paper provides an overview of key elements of Corporate Bankruptcy Codes and Practice around the world that are relevant to the debate on Sovereign Debt Restructuring. It highlights four components common to most bankruptcy reorganization institutions: a stay on debt collection efforts to prevent a costly run for the assets, broad enforcement of absolute priority, majority voting among creditors on the proposed reorganization plan, and new higher priority financing to keep the firm going while its liabilities are restructured. The paper argues that these components ought to be present in any sovereign debt restructuring procedure.
January 1, 2003
Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects
Description: Dollarization of liabilities (DL) has emerged as a key factor in explaining the vulnerability of emerging markets to financial and currency crises. "Usual suspects" of causing DL comprise "fatalistic" determinants such as a long history of unsound macroeconomic policies and development and institutional factors, aided by moral hazard opportunities related to government guarantees. This paper assesses empirically the relevance of these factors relative to alternative explanations. Based on a sample of Latin American countries, we find that ongoing central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market, relative market power of borrowers, and financial penetration are at least as important in explaining DL.
January 1, 2003
FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability
Description: Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa's track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa's bouts with high inflation.
January 1, 2003
What Determines the Reservation Wages of Unemployed Workers? New Evidence From German Micro Data
Description: This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between reservation wages of unemployed workers and macroeconomic factors--including the unemployment rate and generosity of the unemployment compensation system--as well as individual-specific determinants, such as human capital proxies and length of unemployment spell. The longitudinal dataset provides an interesting perspective on how reservation wages change over time and how they correlate with accepted wage offers for workers who move from unemployment to employment. The findings shed light on the disincentive effects of the German tax and transfer system for the employment decisions of unemployed workers at different skill levels.
January 1, 2003
A Comparison Between Two Public Expenditure Management Systems in Africa
Description: This paper assesses the advantages and disadvantages of the French and British public expenditure management systems as used in Africa. The main differences are in budget execution and government accounting. In both francophone and anglophone Africa, there are common weaknesses in the application of the inherited systems, which appear to dominate any distinct features of the individual systems. Desirable reforms in both systems will only be successful if they are accompanied by measures that enhance the accountability of those who operate the systems, including enforcing the rules embodied in existing or reformed regulatory frameworks.