Working Papers
2003
January 1, 2003
Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades
Description: Starting in the late 1970s, the Indian authorities implemented a series of reforms aimed at exposing the economy to greater competition and at liberalizing key aspects of economic activity. This paper investigates productivity trends in India's (registered) manufacturing sectors during the 1980s and 1990s. The main findings of the paper are (i) labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in total manufacturing and many of the component sectors since 1980 were markedly higher than that in the preceding two decades, although the extent of the acceleration in TFP growth depends critically on the underlying assumptions about factor elasticities and the assumed structure of the production function; (ii) productivity growth for total manufacturing as well as for many subsectors picked up further after the 1991 reforms; and (iii) classification of the best performing sectors and the weakest performing sectors, based on comparative TFP, remains robust to changes in underlying assumptions.
January 1, 2003
Portfolio Flows Into India: Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?
Description: This paper analyzes the factors affecting portfolio equity flows into India using monthly data. Flows to India are small compared to other emerging markets, but seem to be relatively less volatile. They also seem to be quite resilient. The paper shows that portfolio flows are determined by both external and domestic factors. Among external factors, LIBOR and emerging market stock returns are important, while the primary domestic determinants are the lagged stock return and changes in credit ratings. In quantitative terms, both external and domestic factors are found to be about equally important.
January 1, 2003
Fiscal Sustainability and Resource Mobilization in the Dominican Republic
Description: This paper examines fiscal sustainability and resource mobilization in the Dominican Republic. The fiscal position appears to be sustainable, if resource mobilization is strengthened. If expenditure continues to rise (relative to GDP), without any further fiscal adjustment, indicators of sustainability would begin to deteriorate. It would be important to maintain an appropriate mix between additional financing and fiscal adjustment, in order that the future debt burden does not rise excessively.
January 1, 2003
What Happens After Supervisory Intervention? Considering Bank Closure Options
Description: Closures have been used to resolve problem banks in many countries in a wide range of economic circumstances, yet banking supervisors frequently defer intervention and closure. Avoiding the costs of disruption is the principal argument in favor of extraordinary measures, such as the use of public funds for recapitalization or forbearance, as alternatives to closing insolvent banks. Well-planned and implemented closure options can preserve essential functions performed by failing banks, mitigating disruption. Extraordinary measures to avoid closure should generally be avoided, but may be used in a systemic crisis to preserve some portion of a widely insolvent banking sector.
January 1, 2003
Inflation Targeting Lite
Description: Inflation targeting lite (ITL) countries float their exchange rate and announce an inflation target, but are not able to maintain the inflation target as the foremost policy objective. This paper identifies 19 emerging market countries as practitioners of ITL. They seem to focus mainly on bringing inflation into the single digits and maintaining financial stability. ITL can be viewed as a transitional regime aimed at buying time for the implementation of the structural reforms needed for a single credible nominal anchor. The important policy challenges for an ITL central bank include whether or not to precommit to a single anchor.
January 1, 2003
What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?
Description: This paper assesses the implementation of IMF-supported programs using measures of program interruptions, compliance with conditionality, and the share of committed funds disbursed. The econometric model allows an evaluation of the importance for program implementation of political conditions in borrowing countries, IMF effort, conditionality, as well as initial and external conditions. The paper concludes that program implementation depends primarily on borrowing countries' domestic political economy. Strong special interests, political instability, inefficient bureaucracies, lack of political cohesion, and ethno-linguistic divisions weaken program implementation. IMF effort, the extent and structure of conditionality, and initial and external conditions do not materially influence program prospects.
January 1, 2003
Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and, Tax Evasion—The Case of Guyana
Description: The persistence in Guyana of a substantial underground economy is an important consequence of economic and social policy over 1964-2000. The paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of, and changes to the underground economy in Guyana, as well as its adverse effect on tax collection, during this period.
January 1, 2003
Small African Stock Markets—The Case of the Lusaka Stock Exchange
Description: In trend with a global pattern and following recommendations of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the number of stock markets in African countries has increased dramatically over the last ten years. Despite a scarcity of studies on the impact of stock markets on these economies, some policymakers have been arguing in favor of stock exchanges (national or regional) in eastern and southern Africa. The creation of such exchanges may be a premature project as they might lack an actual economic rationale. The present case study, for instance, suggests that the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE) has little effect on the larger Zambian economy.
January 1, 2003
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities
Description: Introducing habit formation into an open economy macroeconomic model with price stickiness, we examine the characteristics of an optimal monetary policy. We find that, first, the optimal policy rule entails interest rate smoothing and responds to the lagged values of the foreign interest rate and domestic technology shocks as well as their current values. Second, habit formation enriches the dynamics of the economy with a persistent, hump-shaped response of consumption to shocks. Finally, when habit formation does matter, the optimal policy rule achieves a greater welfare improvement over alternative policy rules by achieving lower macroeconomic variability.
January 1, 2003
How Much Leverage is too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?
Description: Economic theory suggests that vulnerable financial conditions of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and analyses whether it can explain the probability and severity of recessions. The CVI is constructed as the default probability for the entire corporate sector, using the model of corporate debt by Anderson, Sundaresan, and Tychon (1996). The CVI is shown to be a significant predictor of the probability of a recession 4 to 6 quarters ahead, even controlling for other leading indicators. An increase in the CVI is also associated with an increase in the probability of a more severe and lengthy recession 3 to 6 quarters ahead.