Working Papers
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
2003
April 1, 2003
Budget Support Versus Project Aid
Description: Should donors who are interested in the effectiveness of developmental programs rely on conditional budget support or on project aid? To answer this question, we present a model in which only a subset of the developmental expenditures can be subject to conditionality. We show that budget support is preferable to project aid when donors and recipients' preferences are aligned, and when assistance is small relative to recipients' resources. Then, we test our model estimating a modified growth model for a panel of developing countries, and find evidence in support of our predictions.
April 1, 2003
International Financial Integration
Description: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.
April 1, 2003
Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?
Description: Conventional wisdom has held that a fixed exchange rate regime induces more fiscal discipline, but Tornell and Velasco (1995, 1998) argue the opposite. Using a dynamic model with fragmented fiscal policymaking, this paper evaluates the two arguments in a single framework and shows that (1) future punishment against fiscal laxity exists under both fixed and flexible regimes; (2) fiscal authorities have a greater incentive to spend more today under fixed rates than under flexible rates; (3) in the presence of both factors above, fixed rates will induce more fiscal discipline only if the future punishment is sufficiently stronger than under flexible rates; and (4) neither fixed nor flexible rates could resolve the structural distortions caused by fragmented policymaking, and fiscal centralization needs to be undertaken to strengthen fiscal discipline.
April 1, 2003
Job-Specific Investment and the Cost of Dismissal Restrictions: The Case of Portugal
Description: Using a search and matching labor market equilibrium model, this paper quantifies lost labor productivity and consumption per worker that emerges from the restrictions on dismissals. Dismissal restrictions hamper the efficient reallocation of workers, with workers remaining longer in jobs. But the restrictions also tend to induce job-specific investments. A calibration exercise applied to Portugal suggests that the restrictions on dismissal slow the pace of worker reallocation and cause substantial losses of labor productivity and consumption. Although lower worker mobility induces job-specific investment that offsets part of the labor productivity and consumption losses, the size of this offsetting effect is, at most, modest.
April 1, 2003
On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
Description: This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative (IV) in Monte Carlo simulations. The main results are: (i) asymptotically, the heterogeneity bias of the FE may be more or less severe in VAR specifications than in standard dynamic panel data specifications; (ii) in Monte Carlo simulations, slope heterogeneity must be relatively high to be a source of concern for pooled estimators; (iii) when this happens, the panel must be longer than a typical macro dataset for the MG to be a viable solution.
April 1, 2003
The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile Versus the United States
Description: This paper examines the reaction of the bilateral Ch$/US$ exchange rate to monetary policy actions in Chile and the United States. The approach is to regress the change in the exchange rate following a policy announcement on changes in market interest rates in response to the same announcement. U.S. monetary policy actions that raise the three-month treasury bill rate by 1 percentage point lead to depreciations of the Chilean peso by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The exchange rate also reacts to monetary policy actions in Chile, but the response appears to be smaller, and cannot be estimated with much precision on the available sample.
April 1, 2003
The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime
Description: We compare the dollar peg to a dollar-euro basket peg as alternative exchange rate regimes for the incipient Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) currency union. Quantitative evidence suggests basket peg does not dominate dollar peg for improving external stability. However, as GCC exports and external financial assets become more diversified, a more flexible exchange policy may be necessary for competitiveness and stability. Pegging the prospective common GCC currency to a basket, like the dollar-euro basket, may provide a conservative transitional strategy toward a more flexible exchange rate policy.
April 1, 2003
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation
Description: Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.